2011 All Breakout Team

Let’s take a look at some of the breakout players from the 2011 season. I define breakout to mean it was the first year they have produced at a high level, whether it is their rookie season or tenth year in baseball. And this usually translates into juicy targets for your 2012 fantasy teams!

Some players had amazing seasons in 2011, but I didn’t consider them for this team since they have already had All-Star level production in previous years (Matt Kemp comes to mind as an example).

A team needs a player at each position! So let’s get to it:

C – Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers, 24 years old, 3^rd season

2011 Season – 141 GP, 63 R, 19 HR, 82 RBI, .295 AVG, 3 SB

Alex Avila has probably vaulted himself into a top 5 catcher for next year. Avila made the All-Star game and showed amazing poise for a young catcher in charge of the Detroit pitching staff. Despite being forced to play basically everyday at one point, because of an injury to Victor Martinez, Avila stayed remarkably consistent flirting with .300 all season.

1B – Michael Morse, Washington Nationals, 29 years old, 7^th season

2011 Season – 146 GP, 73 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, .303 AVG, 2 SB

Michael Morse has always shown flashes of power in his previous years and in the minors. He even led all spring training players in homers in 2011 showing that he was ready. Finally, a team gave him over 500 at bats and the Nats were rewarded with a breakout season. Morse also provides position flexibility playing both first base and the corner outfield.

Honorable mention goes to Freddie Freeman.

2B – Jemile Weeks, Oakland A’s, 24 years old, 1^st season

2011 season – 97 GP, 50 R, 2 HR, 36 RBI, .303 AVG, 22 SB

Easily the weakest position for the breakout stars team. I choose to go with the leadoff hitter who I think will improve. Jemile, in 406 AB’s, had 26 doubles, 8 triples and stole 22 bases. Not a bad start for a rookie 24 year old speedster. He was able to maintain his fast start and keep his average above .300. Jemile will have to work on his pitch selection and get on base more as his .340 on base percentage will need to improve to become a stud leadoff hitter.

Honorable mention goes to Danny Espinoza.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians, 25 years old, 5^th season

2011 Season – 151 GP, 87 R, 25 HR, 92 RBI, .273 AVG, 17 SB

While Asrubal did only hit .244 the second half, he did breakout in every other major stat. He had never hit more than 6 homers or 68 ribbies in his 4 previous seasons. Asdrubal’s power numbers will be a welcome source from the scarce shortstop position for us fantasy nerds.

Honorable mention goes to Starlin Castro.

3B – Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays, 21 years old, 1^st season

2011 season – 43 GP, 26 R, 9 HR, 25 RBI, .293 AVG, 7 SB

Yes, Lawrie only played a quarter of a season, but third base was a little weak on the true breakout players this year. And Lawrie showed enough to make me believe in him! His OPS was off the charts at .953 and he bats in a great lineup and a great hitter's ballpark. Chances are good that he gets moved to second base at some point, the position he played mostly while in the minors.

A quick aside here, what happened to all the up and coming young third basemen? There was supposed to be this new wave of players at the hot corner that were going to make their presence felt in 2011. What happened Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, Danny Valencia, Brent Morel, Pedro Alvarez and even David Freese? Granted some injuries played a part, and David Freese did go nuts in the post-season! Which, of course, means Freese’s draft position will probably be higher than it should be.

LF – Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals, 27 years old, 5^th season

2011 Season – 151 GP, 101 R, 23 HR, 87 RBI, .303 AVG, 17 SB

Alex Gordon has been trying to live up to his All-Star expectations since he was first brought up to the majors 5 years ago. Kansas City seems to have “the next George Brett” arrive every 4-5 years and Alex was hyped as the franchise’s savior. That’s a ton of pressure to throw on anyone! Alex had never previously hit above .260, never had more than 60 ribbies and never had scored more than 72 runs.

CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox, 28 years old, 5^th season

2011 Season – 158 GP, 119 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, .322 AVG, 39 SB

To say Jacoby Ellsbury had a breakout season is like saying the NY Yankees have won a championship or two. Ellsbury has vaulted himself into the top 10, if not top 5, of any fantasy draft. Ellsbury never had more than 9 homers or 60 ribbies. How many could he have had this year if he was batted lower in the order I wonder?

Honorable mention goes to Melky Cabrera.

RF – Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins, 22 years old, 2^nd season

2011 season – 150 GP, 79 R, 34 HR, 87 RBI, .262 AVG, 5 SB

Stanton started putting up power numbers that are incredible since he played half the season on one leg, has little protection in the lineup and is only 22 years old. He will have to cut back on strikeouts like most young sluggers, but with his raw strength and talent I can see a few 50 homer seasons in his future!

Utility – Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins, 26 years old, 5^th season

2011 Season – 152 GP, 78 R, 5 HR, 36 RBI, .296 AVG, 40 SB

Emilio Bonifacio’s season didn’t really start until Jack McKeon took over as manager on June 20^th. McKeon made Emilio his everyday leadoff hitter and gave him the green light to run. And run he did! Emilio only had 4 stolen bases when McKeon took over, so in just over 3 months (half of a full season) Emilio stole 36 bases. Emilio hit .380 in July with 16 steals. He also hit .339 in September with 9 steals. Emilio really played all over the field last year, 5 games at second, 36 at third, 16 in CF, 32 in LF, 15 in RF and 67 at SS (filling in for the injured Hanley Ramirez).

SP # 1 – Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks, 26 years old, 5^th season

2011 season – 33 GS, 222 IP, 198 K’s, 21-4 record, 1.09 WHIP, 2.88 ERA

When the NY Yankees traded Ian Kennedy to Arizona in 2010, he showed he belonged in the majors. But no one expected Kennedy to compete for the CY Young Award in 2011! He had never won more than 9 games and his previous best ERA was 3.80, almost a full run higher.

SP # 2 – Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks, 24 years old, 3^rd season

2011 season – 33 GS, 222 IP, 169 K’s, 16-12 record, 1.20 WHIP, 3.49 ERA

It seems improbable that the first two breakout starting pitchers are from the same team!? But, Hudson did have his first full season and he produced! It’s always hard to understand what any organization wouldn’t like about a young nasty hurler. But when the Chicago White Sox traded Hudson to the Diamondbacks in the middle of last season, he immediately showed he was going to make a strong impact for years to come in the Diamondbacks rotation.

SP # 3 – Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants, 34 years old, 7^th season

2011 season – 28 GS, 179.2 IP, 139 K’s, 13-7 record, 1.25 WHIP, 2.71 ERA

Vogelsong is really 34 years old? I guess it’s never too late to have your breakout season! Vogelsong actually had not pitched in the majors since 2006 with the Pirates. I can confidently say no one saw this season coming! He never previously had triple digit strikeouts and never won more than 6 games, though he once did lose 13, ouch!

Closer # 1 – Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves, 23 years old, 1^st season

2011 season – 77 IP, 127 K’s, 4-3 record, 46 SV, 1.04 WHIP, 2.10 ERA

At the start of the season, Craig Kimbrel was supposed to split the closer duties with Jonny Venters. But instead, Kimbrel took over and did things a rookie closer has never done before, including surpassing the previous record for rookie saves in a season. Kimbrel also had the longest scoreless inning streak in the majors with 37.2 innings.

Closer # 2 – Drew Storen – Washington Nationals, 24 years old, 2^nd season

2011 season – 75.1 IP, 74 K’s, 6-3 record, 43 SV, 1.02 WHIP, 2.75 ERA

Storen had a solid season in 2010 working his way up the bullpen ladder to become the setup man by the end of the season. He impressed the Nats to the point that they gave him the closers role to start 2011. Storen proved the Nats were smart with his outstanding 2011 season, finishing tied for 6^th in the majors with his 43 saves. Weirdly, his season has almost gone unnoticed!

Set Up Man – David Robertson, NY Yankees, 26 years old, 4^th season

2011 season – 66.2 IP, 100 K’s, 4-0 record, 34 Holds, 1.13 WHIP, 1.08 ERA

Robertson has improved a notch each year, but while working with Mariano Rivera, he had the epitome of a breakout year in 2011. How often do you see an ERA lower than the pitcher’s WHIP? Also, having 100 punch-outs in 66 and two-thirds innings pitched is just crazy! Oh, Robertson also happened to lead the league in holds, ho-hum. A crazy stat line of his is 14 K’s with the bases loaded this season. That is the most in the AL since a 1977 fireballer named Nolan Ryan.

Now, if I can just assemble that team next year in a fantasy draft, I will have a solid chance of contending!

Do The Large Markets Have An Unfair Advantage?

The New York Yankees organization has become the poster child for the never-ending deep pocket spending large market teams. Almost every year the “Evil Yankee Empire” spends more money on several large contracts then the GNP of some small countries. And, inevitably, once this happens, you can hear the loud groans reverberate across the baseball landscape.

The average baseball fan assumes that it is the ability of the large markets to sign big money free agents that basically unbalances baseball. But free agency has only been around since 1975, so that doesn’t readily explain the previous years the large markets (especially the Yankees) dominated. If anything, the Yankees have slowed down since free agency began, having won “only” 7 championships in 36 years.

The 3 largest market teams have actually been pretty successful at keeping a great core group of players intact that initially come up through their system. The Yankees have had Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Bernie Willams and even Phil Hughes. The Phillies have had Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson and Jimmy Rollins. The Red Sox have had Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Some people would use the winners of the World Series as an example of this large market unfair advantage, but how do you explain nine different champions in the past eleven years? Wouldn’t the largest markets be repeat winners more than that?

Other people would blindly say that the playoffs are filled only with teams that can afford the higher payrolls (IE large market teams). This years’ world series was actually a clash of the 11^th highest payroll versus the 13^th highest (see list below). Also, two teams from the bottom ten payroll bracket made it to the playoffs, the Arizona Diamondbacks at 25^th and the Rays at 29^th. This is the same number of teams from the top ten payroll bracket (Yanks & Phils). I won’t even mention the number three payroll team from 2011 (coincidentally also the number two payroll team from 2010) not making the playoffs two straight years!

2011 Team payroll figures provided by USA Today:

TEAM Name	TOTAL PAYROLL
Top Ten Payrolls
New York Yankees	$ 202,689,028
Philadelphia Phillies	$ 172,976,379
Boston Red Sox	$ 161,762,475
Los Angeles Angels	$ 138,543,166
Chicago White Sox	$ 127,789,000
Chicago Cubs	$ 125,047,329
New York Mets	$ 118,847,309
San Francisco Giants	$ 118,198,333
Minnesota Twins	$ 112,737,000
Detroit Tigers	$ 105,700,231
Middle Ten Payrolls
St. Louis Cardinals	$ 105,433,572
Los Angeles Dodgers	$ 104,188,999
Texas Rangers	$ 92,299,264
Colorado Rockies	$ 88,148,071
Atlanta Braves	$ 87,002,692
Seattle Mariners	$ 86,524,600
Milwaukee Brewers	$ 85,497,333
Baltimore Orioles	$ 85,304,038
Cincinnati Reds	$ 75,947,134
Houston Astros	$ 70,694,000
Bottom Ten Payrolls
Oakland Athletics	$ 66,536,500
Washington Nationals	$ 63,856,928
Toronto Blue Jays	$ 62,567,800
Florida Marlins	$ 56,944,000
Arizona Diamondbacks	$ 53,639,833
Cleveland Indians	$ 49,190,566
San Diego Padres	$ 45,869,140
Pittsburgh Pirates	$ 45,047,000
Tampa Bay Rays	$ 41,053,571
Kansas City Royals	$ 36,126,000

Let’s look at the bottom of the payroll list for a moment. The Pirates have not been in the playoffs for years and have had top draft picks for quite some time now. Another team that had just as many top draft picks along with them has become a perennial division/playoff contender since 2008. I am referring to the Tampa Rays. Why the difference between the two organizations? Drafting players is all about evaluating talent. Tampa obviously can while Pittsburgh would seem to have problems doing so. The Pirates also regularly seem to throw money away to mediocre free agents who add nothing to their core team. If an organization can’t evaluate talent in the draft, talent in the minors and talent in the majors, why would the amount of money they have to spend change the outcome? Having more money would only mean your failures are costing more (just ask the New York Mets about the truth of that statement).

For most organizations in baseball, the team goes through a cycle of not being truly competitive for 3-4 years and then ramping up to be competitive for 2-3 years. It coincides with the development of their home grown talent and then that talent breaking up. If anything, I think that since the larger markets are capable of keeping a great core of players intact longer, that is where the true advantage lies. Then the large market teams can target and add free agents to that core group as needed. Small markets have to be more nimble and creative since their core group breaks up and they usually only have a window of opportunity to win.

So to wrap it up, yes I think the larger market teams do have an advantage, just not one where you would have initially thought.

Trade – Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez

The Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants pulled off a trade yesterday that is worth examining. The Giants received OF Melky Cabrera for Pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and a minor league pitcher.

Melky Cabrera’s 2011 season – 155 GP, 102 R, 201 H, 44 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 20 SB, .305 AVG, .339 OBP, .470 SLG, .809 OPS

Jonathan Sanchez’s 2011 season – 19 GS, 101.1 IP, 80 H, 66 BB, 102 K, 4-7 Record, 1.44 WHIP, .220 BAA, 4.26 ERA

From the Giants perspective:

The Giants have plenty of starting pitching, almost an embarrassment of riches really, with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ryan Volgelsong, Madison Bumgarner, the young Eric Surkamp and even Barry Zito. Many analysts immediately asked why they couldn’t they have gotten a better player than Melky in return for a power pitching 28 year old lefty? After all, the 28 year old Melky is coming off a very solid season (easily his best) but it is the only one he has had like it in his career. But Melky rededicated himself last off-season. He spent time with his buddy Alex Rodriguez (and his trainers of course) showing up to spring training with a new body and attitude. And, boy oh boy, did it show in his impressive 2011 campaign! Melky is the first Royal player to have a 200 hit season in over a decade! Melky also can play all three outfield positions respectably and has a strong arm (especially for a centerfielder). This will give the Giants great flexibility for the remainder of the off-season retooling of their team (options to resign or not resign a Carlos Beltran or a Cody Ross for example).

From the Royals perspective:

The Royals pitching, especially their young starting pitching, has been a messy struggle. The Royals realize they needed to add an experienced starter to upgrade their young rotation (hopefully an additional second one is also coming). Adding a post-season experienced Jonathan Sanchez to the team chemistry mix can only help them. Sanchez had a solid 2010 season along with a great 2010 postseason. His 2011 season, and career, have been marked by not going deep enough into games and walking way too many hitters (66 walks in over 101 innings in 2010). Many left-handed power pitchers seem to constantly struggle with their mechanics and the Royals are positive they can help him with that. The Royals also needed to make room for their up and coming centerfielder Lorenzo Cain, so moving Melky, who played center for them last season, made the most sense.

This, in my opinion, is the epitome of a trade that will help both teams. These are the best kind of trades, although, I have greater faith in Melky having similar seasons to 2011 than Jonathan Sanchez getting his control issues straightened out. So, if you pointed a pitching machine at my head, I would have to say the trade winner was The San Francisco Giants.

Should A Pitcher Ever Win The MVP Award?

It’s a great debate that seems to arise every 4-5 years or so. Usually, the topic surfaces whenever a pitcher posts a season like Justin Verlander just did, or whenever there is no clear-cut offensive player that stands out (arguably that is how Dennis Eckersley won his award in 1992 for example).

In the past 43 years there have only been only seven pitchers to win the MVP Award (and only the great Bob Gibson in the NL). And none awarded to a pitcher since 1992. This basically coincides with the rise of the steroid era in baseball and the fantastical offensive numbers posted. Way back after the 1968 season (when each league had a pitcher win the MVP award, gasp!), baseball changed the pitcher’s mound height and a few rules to get the hitters back into the swing of things (yes, pun intended). Before 1968 pitchers would win the MVP awards with enough regularity to never bring up this debate. After all, the award is worded “Most Valuable Player”, not “Most Valuable Everyday Player” nor “Most Valuable Non-Pitcher”.

But times change (where are you subway token?), trends change (whatever happened to the hula hoop anyway?) and, of course, thoughts change (remember when Lindsay Lohan was considered an up and comer?). In today’s game the conventional wisdom is that it is not possible for a player who only plays a fraction of a season to possibly be more valuable than a player who plays every day. The maximum number of starts a pitcher has nowadays is 35 thanks to the 5-man rotation. The leader in relief appearances each year usually has in the 70 to 80 games played range.

But as we get further away from the steroid’s era and back to the pitchers dominating, shouldn’t pitchers be seriously considered for MVP again? In the past decade of voting there has only been a single first place vote for a pitcher. Johan Santana received it in 2006. The last time a pitcher even landed in the top 5 in voting was Pedro Martinez in 2000.

If Justin Verlander does force his way into the MVP discussions it will only be because the thought patterns of baseball have started to change again. It almost doesn’t matter that Velander had a season where he led the American League every important pitching category if the voters refuse to consider pitchers at all. Does Justin’s season compare favorable to past winners? (for ease, I am only posting the most basic pitching stats)

2011 Justin Verlander Detroit 24-5 record, 2.40 ERA, 250 K’s

Last seven MVP pitchers:

1992 Dennis Eckersley Oakland 7-1 record, 51 SV, 1.91 ERA, 93 K’s

1986 Roger Clemens Boston 24-4 record, 2.48 ERA, 238 K’s

1984 Willie Hernandez Detroit 9-3 record, 32 SV, 1.92 ERA, 112 K’s

1981 Rollie Fingers Milwaukee 6-3 record, 28 SV, 1.04 ERA, 61 K’s

1971 Vida Blue Oakland 24-8 record, 1.82 ERA, 301 K’s

1968 Denny McClain Detroit 31-6 record, 1.96 ERA, 280 K’s

1968 Bob Gibson St Louis 22-9 record, 1.12 ERA, 268 K’s

I would say the answer is basically yes. His season is almost a mirror of Clemen’s magical 1986 season. But let’s look a little deeper too. Let’s compare Verlander’s year to this year’s probable NL CY Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw’s (he’s definitely my NL pick).

Verlander         34 GS, 251 IP, 250 K’s, 24-5 Record, 0.92 WHIP, 2.40 ERA

Kershaw          33 GS, 233 IP, 248 K’s, 21-5 Record, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA

Really, not too much distance between the two pitcher’s seasons. Does this mean Kershaw should be considered for the National League MVP? No one is even mentioning Kershaw at all, so there isn’t the slightest chance of it happening. Is Verlander’s season an historical one where the voter’s would HAVE to consider him? I would it say was an awesomely great year, but especially since the wins category doesn’t have the weight it once did, not historical in the least.

Here is a sampling of seasons that pitchers have had spanning the past 35 years, which (IMHO) compare favorably to Verlander’s season and the list of winners above:

2008 Cliff Lee Cleveland 22-3 record, 2.54 ERA, 170 K’s

2004 Johan Santana Minnesota 20-6 record, 2.61 ERA, 265 K’s

2004 Mariano Rivera NY Yankees 4-2 record, 53 SV, 1.94 ERA 66 K’s

2003 Eric Gagne Dodgers 2-3 record, 55 SV, 1.20 ERA, 137 K’s

2002 Randy Johnson Arizona 24-5 record, 2.32 ERA, 334 K’s

1999 Pedro Martinez Boston 23-4 record, 2.07 ERA, 313 K’s

1995 Greg Maddux Atlanta 19-2 record, 1.63 ERA, 181 K’s

1989 Bret Saberhagen Kansas City 23-6 record, 2.16 ERA, 193 K’s

1980 Steve Carlton Philadelphia 24-9 record, 2.34 ERA, 286 K’s

1978 Ron Guidry NY Yankees 25-3 record, 1.74 ERA 248 K’s

Finally, is there any clear-cut everyday player that stands out as the obvious AL MVP instead? The candidates in the American League should include Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista. Some might even throw an Adrian Beltre type into the discussion. But no one jumps out as a clear favorite to me… and I think that opens the door for a pitcher to step into the discussion.

So, I think Verlander does have a solid shot to win this years voting since there is no one clear cut hitter (I would vote for him), but I won’t be holding my breath!

Fantasy - My Early Top 25 Fantasy Players For 2012

It’s never too early in the off-season to start talking about fantasy baseball for 2012! This list is my hyper-early top 25 fantasy player rankings. There are still some things, of course, which may affect this early list even before the season starts next year. Trades are made, players are still free agents, injuries occur and we have to wait to properly assess some players recovering from injuries.

When I speak of fantasy baseball I am working with the most basic 5x5 fantasy league settings in mind. 5 hitting categories (Runs, HR, RBI, SB and AVG) and 5 pitching categories (K, Wins, Saves, ERA and WHIP). Because the basic fantasy league only focuses on these 10 stats alone, the player rankings in fantasy don’t necessarily match up to the rankings a person would have in real life. The stolen base becomes a very valuable stat for a fantasy player to have when it comes along with the other four offensive stats. Some players on my list will be higher up than you would think simply because their stats include the all mighty stolen bases.

You will also notice that I do NOT subscribe to drafting closers early in ANY draft format. You will never see any closer in my top 25 list ever. I also am not a big believer in drafting early starting pitching since there is so much solid pitching out there. Also, Starting pitching in general has some of the most inconsistent stats year to year (even the best of starters can easily have a mediocre year).  I can, however, subscribe to the notion of picking up one of the elite Aces to anchor a fantasy rotation. I am also a big believer in targeting position scarcity. In other words, if an OF and a SS had the same great stats I would draft the shortstop first since there are fewer good shortstop options in the fantasy world.

Now onto the list (along with my comments on the top ten)!

1 - Ryan Braun, Left field

King Albert has owned this spot in most fantasy pre-season rankings for the past 5-6 years simply based on his high level of consistent MVP type seasons. When you get a top pick in a draft you shouldn’t use it on someone who usually gets hurt most seasons. Nor on a player who shows inconsistency from year to year. Well Ryan Braun has been as consistent (consistently great that is) in his 5 major league seasons as anyone in baseball. Last season Braun even upped his stolen bases to 33! You can confidently expect more of the same even if Prince Fielder ends up leaving the Brewers.

2011 Season – 109 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, .332 AVG

2 - Matt Kemp, Center field

Matt Kemp vaulted up the fantasy rankings with a major offensive explosion in 2011. Kemp finished one homerun shy of the exclusive 40/40 club (40 homers and 40 stolen bases). Basically, the combination of homerun power and stolen base speed is the rarest of attributes in baseball (and highly coveted when building your fantasy team). As a consequence, in many drafts you will see many of the players with that combination disappear off the draft boards very quickly.

2011 Season – 115 R, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, .324 AVG

3 – Miguel Cabrera, First base

Miguel Cabrera has posted such great numbers consistently, it would be scary if he ever got his personal life together and decided to dedicate himself to baseball greatness. He could become one of the top five right-handed hitters in baseball history if not just our generation, he’s that good with the lumber!

Past 8 full seasons average: 158 GP, 101+ R, 33+ HR, 115+ RBI, .320 AVG

4 – Jacoby Ellsbury, Center field

Ellsbury proved two things with his monster 2011 campaign. The first, that his .300 average from 2009 was no fluke. The second, that he can stay healthy for a full season. No one doubted Ellsbury’s speed or ability to play defense, but many doubted he would ever hit for power or be a big time run producer. Ellsbury put those negative thoughts to rest to become a fantasy elite player!

2011 Season – 119 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, .321 AVG

5 – Albert Pujols, First base

King Albert drops this year all the way to 5^th in the rankings. Largely because of his age (32 in January) but also because his stats last year were just a small notch below his usual level. And, although Pujols always seem to be able to play through them, he has had several small nagging injuries the past several years. Those injuries will only slow him down, as he gets older. Almost every player in history, who plays twenty years in the majors, statistically shows a decline in the second decade as compared to the first decade. It’s only natural. The only exceptions occurred during the steroid era (Barry Bonds is one shining example of an unnatural career arc).

2011 Season – 105 R, 37 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB, .299 AVG

6 – Jose Bautista, Third base/Right field

Jose Bautista slowed down his offensive production dramatically during the second half last year (combination of pitchers pitching around him and the dreaded, some say mythical, homerun contest doldrums). But Jose still led baseball in homeruns for the second consecutive year. He easily proved his 2010 season was no fluke. His eligibility at two positions also makes him very flexible for a fantasy roster!

2011 Season – 105 R, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, .302 AVG

7 – Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop

Even though Troy has been fragile the past couple of years he has still put up elite power numbers for a shortstop. The position scarcity at shortstop should move him into the top ten in all fantasy rankings. Troy has averaged fewer than 139 games played the past 3 years, but he still has averaged over 90 R, over 29 HR, over 97 RBI, 13 SB and a .308 AVG. Imagine if he plays a full season healthy!

8 – Adrian Gonzalez, First base

Adrian proved that moving to Fenway from PETCO Park in San Diego would only help his value grow. Where Adrian loses a few homeruns because of the Fenway Green Monster (Boston's left field wall), he gains doubles, hits and plenty of ribbies with the stacked Boston lineup. Expect more of the same from Adrian!

2011 Season – 108 R, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB, .338 AVG

9 – Robinson Cano, Second base

Robbie has turned into a perennial MVP candidate. His offense (and defense for that matter) is at the very top of any second base rankings. And second base, while having more useful players than shortstop for fantasy purposes, is still a scarce enough position to help move Robbie into the top ten.

2011 Season – 104 R, 28 HR, 118 RBI, 8 SB, .302 AVG

10 – Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher

I usually don’t have a pitcher crack my top ten rankings. But Justin Verlander forced his way in with a season where he just simply dominated the American League. Verlander was first in wins with 24, first in innings pitched with 251, first in strikeouts with 250, first in ERA with 2.40, first in WHIP with 0.92 (nuts!), first in Win percentage with .828 and finally only fourth in complete games with 4. His season was so good that there are even some baseball analysts that are calling for him to win the AL MVP Award!

11 – Joey Votto, First base

12 – Prince Fielder, First base

13 – Justin Upton, Right field

14 – Hanley Ramirez, Shortstop

15 – Roy Halladay, Starting Pitcher

16 – Dustin Pedroia, Second base

17 – Jared Weaver, Starting Pitcher

18 – Clayton Kershaw, Starting Pitcher

19 - Evan Longoria, Third base

20 – Curtis Granderson, Center field

21 – Cliff Lee, Starting Pitcher

22 – Jose Reyes, Shortstop

23 – Andre Beltre, Third base

24 – Tim Lincecum, Starting pitcher

25 – Mark Teixeira, First base

Honorable mentions in no particular order: Josh Hamilton, CC Sabathia, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Howard, Carlos Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, Mike Stanton, Ian Kinsler, Aramis Ramirez and Paul Konerko.

As you can see, when a player hits 39 HR and 111 RBI but is only listed 25^th (hello Mark Teixeira), that must mean first base is just loaded fantasy-wise! There are 3 first basemen in the top ten and 6 in the top 25. Many fantasy veterans would say you can’t win without a bomber at first base and I agree. But there are many to choose from and no need to panic. You can always pick up a Paul Konerko, Michael Morse or Freddie Freeman later on.

I am sure this top ten rankings list will change as we get closer to spring training and the start of the 2012 season, but I am ready to start a draft now! Who’s with me?

Did the Yankees Dodge a Bullet with CC Sabathia?

The threat of CC Sabathia opting out of his contract and becoming a free agent forced the Yankees to negotiate a contract extension to make sure the hefty lefty stayed put. The Yankees (in essence) gave CC a 2 year extension at 25 mil a season (yikes!). So as long as he is healthy, the Yankees now have CC through 2017. Most baseball analysts claim the Yankees were hamstrung and had to pay CC whatever it took to keep him here. That the Yankees rotation couldn’t take the hit of CC leaving. But would CC really have opted out? He had 4 years left on his original contract at 92 million dollars. Hmmmmm, I wonder… If he had opted out and the Yankees decided to stop negotiations with him because of that, where could CC have gotten similar deals?


The Washington Nationals have been adding on a few huge contracts the past couple of years and actually might be on the verge of contending. But would they have ponied up the 20 to 25 mil a season over the 6 years CC was seeking? After the sour taste of 126 million dollars going down the drain with Jason Werth (.232 AVG and 58 RBI’s? Ouch!) I highly doubt it. I do have the feeling that the Nats are going to pick up a veteran starter to front their young rotation though. Maybe a Roy Oswalt?


The Los Angeles Dodgers under normal circumstances are a team that would step up for such an ace. But not this particular off-season. Not with the team going up for sale and MLB butting heads with the owner Frank McCourt.


The Philadelphia Phillies are already paying a boatload of money to their starting pitching rotation. If they were going to spend money this off-season it probably would be on Jimmy Rollins (or a replacement shortstop, Jose Reyes anyone?). Also possibly on a new closer or outfielder.


All signs point to the New York Mets cutting back right now, not loading up on large contracts. Also, They already have a highly paid ace pitcher they hope comes back in top form next year by the name of Johan Santana.


IF the St Louis Cardinals didn’t resign Albert Pujols and IF they didn’t find a big money offensive replacement (they have room at short for Reyes/Rollins or at first for Prince Fielder or in the outfield for a Beltran since Berkman can always slide to first base for them) then maybe adding a third ace to their staff (a la the Phillies) would be a way they could go. But would CC really have wanted to opt out to see if all that musical money chairs would have occurred? Not a chance.


The Texas Rangers are already planning on letting their main man CJ Wilson leave, since they a plethora of young stud pitchers. Or they just may return Neftali Feliz from the closer role to the rotation instead. But Nolan Ryan does looooooove his pitching and the Texas Rangers always love sticking it to the Yankees, so possibly Texas would have stepped up. It looked like they were serious about Cliff Lee a year ago so they must have some money squirreled away in one of Nolan Ryan’s cowboy boots.


And while the Boston Red Sox would also love nothing better than to stick it to the Yankees, I think the last thing they are thinking about is another huge contract of that magnitude (yes, I see Admiral Ackbar too). Not after the recent stratospheric contracts of Crawford, Gonzalez, Lackey, etc.


I suppose there are other teams with money like the Orioles that could also have stepped up for that mega-contract CC would command, but would CC really want to go to any team that has slim chances of competing for a playoff spot?


CC Sabathia does not strike as that type of person, a person who would seek out a few more million someplace else, not when he has already been paid exorbitant amounts of money to play this kid’s game (baseball has already paid CC well over 80 million dollars). Not when he has enjoyed his time in New York, reaching the post season all 3 years and winning the world championship one year. Not when his kids are comfortable in their school system and his family is happy with where they live.


So with one, at most two, other possibly valid options out there for him, I can confidently say CC would not have opted out. And, if an average baseball nerd like myself can figure this out, I have to assume so did the Yankee Organization. The common baseball fan never really knows all the discussions that go on behind the closed doors of the baseball universe, but we can probably safely assume the Yankees and CC Sabathia had already worked out this extension for him a long time ago (and in a sandwich shop far, far away).


The Yankees were OK with rewarding CC for his 59 wins and 3.18 ERA in his 3 years since coming aboard. He has affected the clubhouse culture positively and is still in his prime at 31 years old. It’s just that for good or bad, the Yankees' rewards (basically 50 million for 2 years) always blow all other organizations’ rewards out of the water.

The Free Agents Are Here!

Filing for free agency officially began at Wednesday night at the midnight hour. And, of course, many players stampede to file their free agency claim so they can start negotiating immediately with all the teams for their handsomely plump contracts. And (usually) ten or fifteen minutes into the bewitching hour there is already a signing or two by teams that just want get a jump on shoring up their rosters. For us baseball nerds, it’s the same feeling the rest of the world gets when you hear about the first baby born every New Year.


This year’s uber early morning signings were the Arizona Diamondbacks with Catcher Henry Blanco and the Los Angeles Dodgers with 1B/OF Juan Rivera. Since Blanco played for the D-Backs last year as their backup catcher it seems weird that he had to bother filing for free agency when only 15 minutes later they resign him. Weird. The Dodgers early signing of retread Rivera makes financial sense for them when they have immense monetary issues with the coming sale of the team. Also, Rivera has dominated left-handed pitching and is a perfect fit to back up James Loney at first base and Andre Ethier in right field. Both who were in the bottom ten OPS-wise versus left-handed pitching in the majors last year!


Now onto my top free agents list for this off season (you knew there would be a list somewhere!). I decided to go with the solid cliché top 10 list:


1 – Albert Pujols, First base, 31 years old
What has not already been said about King Albert? His career numbers and average season stats are off the charts. He is a once in a generation player. It would be a real shame to baseball if he left St Louis.


2 – Prince Fielder, First base, 27 years old
If Pujols is 1, then Fielder is 1A. A few baseball people might even argue he should be listed ahead of Pujols based on his being 4 years younger. Fielder is just entering the prime years of his career and he already has put up six solid if not monster years! For those who worry about his weight he has averaged over 159 games played a year over the past 6 years. Fielder is surprisingly athletic and agile for a man of his girth… er… width… er… size! He will probably never be able to change his body type enough to please most critics (have you met his father Cecil?), but he has proven to even the most skeptical baseball nerd that he can be relied upon to produce at a monster level offensively.


3 - Jose Reyes, Shortstop, 28 years old
Jose Reyes only has one problem. His legs. He just can’t seem to stay healthy for a complete year. Reyes is an amazing athlete that has been able to show that when he plays healthy, he is one of the best and most exciting players in all of baseball. His defensive range and arm are at the top of the charts. When he focuses on line drives, his gap power and his speed are just incredible. He can easily be a major piece for a team to build around for next 7 years.


4 – CJ Wilson, Starting Pitcher, 30 years old
After being stashed in the bullpen for several years, CJ Wilson has had 2 straight very solid years starting for the Texas Rangers. He has made me believe in him since if you can succeed there you should be able to succeed elsewhere too. I don’t think of him as a staff ace by any means, but as a strong number 2 or 3 starter he would be amazing! And CJ has proven he is far better than the likes of Mike Hampton, John Lackey, Carl Pavano, Barry Zito, Denny Neagle, AJ Burnett, Hideki Irabu… well you get the point. All those pitchers received huge free agent contracts but were colossal failures in my humble opinion.


5 – Aramis Ramirez, Third base, 33 years old
Let me state for the record that I am a huge Aramis Ramirez fan. At the end of last season there was talk of Aramis’ demise. His fielding range had disappeared, he lost his power and he was aging quickly. At the end of this season I am happy to announce that Aramis is still here! His 2011 stat line:


149 Games .306 AVG 80 Runs 35 Doubles 26 HR 93 RBI .871 OPS


While I don’t think any team should go past a 3-year contract, getting an experienced RBI man like Aramis who plays a prime position would be a smart move. (THAT’s GOLD JERRY, GOLD!)


6 – Roy Oswalt, Starting Pitcher, 34 years old
I am also a huge fan of Roy Oswalt. Some might say that targeting an older pitcher coming off of a back injury plagued season would be ludicrous. Oswalt has put up top tier numbers over the past decade while hiding in Houston. He also keeps himself in tiptop shape and knows how to pitch. Oswalt has averaged close to 15 wins a year, sports a lifetime WHiP of 1.19 and a lifetime ERA of 3.21! Be assured I will be drafting him in any fantasy league no matter where he ends up.


7 – Carlos Beltran - Right field, 34 years old
Speaking of old and coming off injuries… introducing Carlos Beltran, ladies and baseball fanatics! Carlos was smart to play as much as he could last year to show everyone that he can still play. Moving to right field was also smart since he wears a knee brace and has had like 52 knee operations (give or take). I would think he would do better to sign in the American League where Carlos could DH when he needs to rest his knees a bit. Carlos’ very respectable 2011 stat line:


142 Games .300 AVG 78 Runs 39 Doubles 22 HR 84 RBI .910 OPS


8 – Jonathan Papelbon, Closer, 30 years old
I would have bet dollars to doughnuts a couple of years ago that Papelbumb… er… Papelbon would never have lasted as a closer. But not only has he lasted, he has excelled. And after succeeding in the pressure cooker of the Boston market (mmmmmm, Boston Market) he should be able to close anywhere. He has gotten back to mixing up his outstanding pitches and every year his control seems to get a notch better. His ratio of 10 walks to 87 strikeouts in 64.1 innings last year is ill! Hard to think anyone can do better than his 0.93 WHiP.


9 – Jimmy Rollins, Shortstop, 32 years old
An outstanding defensive shortstop that has both great speed and solid power? Sign me up! Jimmy Rollins is a victim of his one amazing MVP season and his large market team, which has produced unrealistic expectations about him year in and year out. Jimmy Rollins also has been a bit miscast as the leadoff hitter in my opinion. I would personally have moved him to number two spot in the order to better take advantage of his power and let him drive some runs in. If Philadelphia didn’t have Chase Utley I might even bat him third. At 32 years old, I obviously wouldn’t recommend any team going beyond three or four years with him, but Jimmy would be a solid infield anchor for any team.


10 - Mark Buehrle, Starting Pitcher, 32 years old
With Mark Buehrle making my top ten free agent list several things can be gleaned (who actually says “glean” anyway?). One, stud starting pitching is on the light side for this free agent class. Two, I think starting pitching is very important in both real life and fantasy baseball. Three, I have respect for what Mark Buehrle brings to the table. Buehrle has made 30 starts and pitched at least 200 innings in 11 straight seasons! Yes, I said 11 straight seasons! In those 11 years he has averaged close to 14 wins a season with a lifetime WHiP of 1.28 and a lifetime ERA of 3.83. As a team’s number three starting pitcher he would provide innings and reliability almost unmatched in today’s game.

Some honorable mentions are Yu Darvish (The Japanese 25 year old superstar pitching stud), Hiroki Kuroda, David Ortiz, Ryan Madson, Grady Sizemore, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena and Javier Vasquez.


How many of these players will receive the coveted 100 million dollar contract? Where will these free agents land?  How many of these players will resign with their original team? I can hardly wait to find out!

The 2011 Silver Slugger Awards

The Silver Slugger award winners were announced last night and, unlike the Gold Glove Awards, there are few choices that are really debatable. This award was designed to reward the best offensive player at each position. The managers and coaches vote on this award, but they can’t vote for a player on their team. At least, unlike the gold glove awards that can have people scratching their heads, every silver slugger has had a great offensive season and is a reasonable selection. Historically, the type of player who usually gets the short end of the votes for this award are the speedsters. But hey, the word “slugger” is in the title of the award so what are you going to do?


The gold glove awards got it right this year and went with the three separate outfield positions (LF, CF and RF) unlike the silver slugger that just has three general outfielders. I would much rather see each outfield position treated individually. It’s only by random coincidence that this year’s NL awards had a leftfielder, centerfielder and rightfielder.


Here is the Silver Slugger Award list along with my opinion on who should have won:


                    AL/NL Choice                                My Opinion
C       Alex Avila/Brian McCann                           Both Fine
1B     Adrian Gonzalez/Prince Fielder                  Miguel Cabrera/Fine
2B     Robinson Cano/Brandon Phillips               Both Fine
SS     Asdrubal Cabrera/Troy Tulowitzki             Jhonny Peralta/Jose Reyes
3B     Adrian Beltre/Aramis Ramirez                    Both Fine
OF     Curtis Granderson/Ryan Braun                Both Fine
OF     Jacoby Ellsbury/Matt Kemp                      Both Fine
OF     Jose Bautista/Justin Upton                       Fine/Lance Berkman
DH    David Ortiz                                                Barf…. Er…. Fine
P       Daniel Hudson                                          Really?? A pitcher gets one??


Some people (especially from Texas) might question Alex Avila’s AL pick at catcher over Mike Napoli. But the reality is Napoli did not catch enough this year to qualify. He played 61 games at Catcher, 35 games at first and the rest at DH. I my opinion, I believe that for a player to be considered for either the gold glove or silver slugger awards they should play (at the very minimum) half the games in a season at the position to be qualified. Some might even argue a higher minimum like 100 games and I wouldn’t have an issue with that.


Miguel Cabrera versus Adrian Gonzalez is a great debate for the American League first base position. Both just had monster offensive years:


Miguel Cabrera    .344 AVG 111 R 30 HR 105 RBI 1.033 OPS
Adrian Gonzalez  .338 AVG 108 R 27 HR 117 RBI  .957 OPS


But other than RBI’s, Cabrera holds the edge in every other offensive category, especially OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage). And let’s be honest, how many more RBI’s would Cabrera have had with both Jacoby Ellsbury (.376 OBP) and Dustin Pedroia (.387 OBP) batting in front of him instead of Austin Jackson (.314 OBP) and Magglio Ordonez (.303 OBP)? It’s really hard to NOT vote for the batting champ when he also has all the other categories filled so nicely! And while A. Gonzalez limped home the last six weeks of the season, where would the Detroit Tigers have gone without Miguel Cabrera in the middle of that lineup?


In the National League Prince Fielder basically received the award because of his large edge in RBI’s and OPS over Joey Votto and Albert Pujols:


Prince Fielder  .299 AVG  95 R 38 HR 120 RBI .981 OPS 1 SB
Joey Votto       .309 AVG 101 R 29 HR 103 RBI .947 OPS 8 SB
Albert Pujols    .299 AVG 105 R 37 HR  99 RBI .906 OPS 9 SB


Where I feel Asdrubal Cabrera was robbed of the gold glove award, I think he was compensated with the silver slugger that he possibly didn’t deserve (though I admit this one is very close). Asdrubal dominated Jhonny in stolen bases and runs scored, but Asdrubal tailed off the last 2 months of the season while Jhonny Peralta was consistent all year:


Asdrubal Cabrera  .273 AVG 87 R 25 HR 92 RBI .792 OPS 17 SB
Jhonny Peralta       .299 AVG 68 R 21 HR 86 RBI .824 OPS 0 SB


I give more credence to the batting average and OPS over the difference in their stolen base and run totals. The runs differential is basically Asdrubal batting second or third in the Cleveland lineup while Jhonny batted sixth or seventh in the Detroit lineup.


Not many people envisioned Aramis Ramirez putting together another solid season, especially coming off of and playing though the injuries he has had this and the past year. But as the season went on he got stronger and his power numbers came back in the second half. He has always been a solid RBI man and helped me in many fantasy leagues over the years!


Quite a few baseball people would definitely fight me on my Jose Reyes over Troy Tulowitzki pick. There is no denying that Tulo’s slugging numbers are just terrific again. But this is one of those cases where the speedster gets the short straw over slugger (not to say that Tulo is a sloth!):


Troy Tulowitzki    .302 AVG  81R 30 HR 105 RBI .916 OPS 9 SB
Jose Reyes         .337 AVG 101R  7 HR  44 RBI .877 OPS 39 SB


This is the classical argument of who is more valuable to a lineup, the middle of the order slugger versus the lead off run producer. Of course the slugger will always have more homers and RBI’s. But Reyes’ numbers also include a league leading 16 triples, league batting champion, and an incredibly improved strikeout rate. He struck out only 41 times in 537 at bats, which in today’s game is amazing.


Reyes produced this while yet again struggling with leg injuries that seem to nag him nearly every season. One can only hope he can stay healthy for a couple of years so we can see what unique numbers he might truly produce!