The Red Sox Choose Bobby Valentine To Manage

The Red Sox have finally rolled the dice and are hoping they come up with a seven! Bobby Valentine is an interesting choice (to say the least) and you have to be intrigued by his hiring. Even if you are convinced this is a near suicidal move by the Sox your curiosity still has to be piqued. We all know Bobby Valentine will crash and burn at some point while managing the Red Sox. It's inevitable. But when? Will it be 5 or 6 years from now after winning a Championship (or two) in Beantown? Or will it be only 3-4 months into the 2012 season when he and the team completes its transformation into the newest version of Cirque du Soleil?

The 61 year old Bobby Valentine wasn’t the first choice for the Red Sox. It would seem he wasn’t even in the top 5 originally. A month ago, if you said he would be tabbed to be the Red Sox’ next manager, no one would have listened to you (I certainly would have laughed at you). The Sox have gone on a 3-month dysfunctional roller coaster ride that includes; one of the worst finishes in baseball history, firing their manager (Terry Francona) and having their GM (Theo Epstein) depart under stormy circumstances. Throw in stories of beer and fried chicken being eaten during games by the players and Boston has become the new Bronx Zoo! As an old time Yankee fan I have been savoring every moment.

Just like the storied internal clashes the Yankee organization have repeatedly had over the years, it would seem the same power struggle is occurring within Boston. It is tough to get your house in order when everyone is NOT on the same page. The Red Sox scrambled to quickly hire a new GM, and did, by the name of Ben Cherington. The Boston ownership had probably assumed getting the GM situation quickly straightened out would then be followed up by hiring a new manager pronto. But, as we saw, that was hardly the case.

Charington was an easy enough choice for the principal owner John Henry since he has steadily risen within the Sox’ organization since 1997. Henry was also pleased that Cherington was a “new age” stat man like Theo Epstein and Billy Beane (from Moneyball we know the Red Sox ownership coveted the original new age stat man big time). The biggest difference between the old GM Theo and the new GM is that Cherington is more conservative; he would probably never have been bold enough to trade away Boston icon Nomar Garciaparra like Theo did.

But where John Henry is a fan of Charington, it turns out that the Red Sox President/CEO/minority owner Larry Lucchino probably not so much. He has presumably become even less so after this manager hiring schism, not to mention Cherington just plain reminds him of Theo Epstein. In fact, it turns out that Lucchino was basically always at odds with Theo, so much so that Theo briefly left the Red Sox for 3 months in 2005. Larry Lucchino is a strong personality, having been a former owner of the Orioles and Padres, and he is not afraid to push his opinions onto current ownership. He is as big a reason as any that Bobby Valentine has been hired (Lucchino was interested in Valentine being the manager for the Red Sox way back in 2003 before they hired Fracona).

Once Cherington was hired as GM, his first task was to assemble candidates for the open manager’s job. Bobby Valentine was not on his list of possible candidates. A list that Cherington strangely decided to publicly announce to the world at one point, he was so certain of getting a quick hire. The list included Dale Sveum, Sandy Alomor Jr, Gene Lamont, Pete Mackanin and Torey Lovullo (all are current coaches on various teams in the majors). Cherington wanted someone who is easy to work with, who would think along the same lines as him and not necessarily someone who previously managed.

Truthfully, his real top choice was John Farrell (the current Toronto Blue Jays manager and former Red Sox pitching coach). But, Toronto would not grant permission for Cherington to speak with Farrell (why would they?).

After everyone on his list did their preliminary interview, only Sveum was originally invited back for a second one. The interview process is at least 4 levels deep for the Red Sox organization (GM Cherington, President Lucchino, majority owner Henry and finally minority owners). Shortly after that second interview, Sveum signed with the Chicago Cubs instead, to be their new manager (I envision Theo making knife in the back motions!). I am sure this did not make John Henry happy. Not with how slowly and how poorly things were proceeding. This left the door open for Lucchino to push his personal choice Valentine forward.

Lucchino’s main argument was the discipline that was desperately needed and that only an experienced major league manager could be reasonably expected to follow up with that discipline. From his original list, Cherington could only try and keep the previous manager Gene Lamont in the conversation for consideration. The final piece for the decision probably fell to John Henry finding out that Valentine is actually a new age stat manager! Not many people realize this fact and Lucchino had to know it would sway John Henry (Gene Lamont’s managing style is considered old school).

Not a great start for the new GM, to say the least, even if he is ultimately OK with Valentine becoming the manager. After all, is Valentine going to work well with the young GM after this? I can easily see Valentine going around Cherington, instead to Lucchino, whenever things aren’t going the way Valentine wants them to.

But isn’t it possible Valentine will make a positive contribution to Boston? Isn’t it possible there will be no conflicts? Of course it is, especially early on. Valentine has a history of initially winning and a reputation of turning teams into competitive ones. But he also has a history of burning bridges quickly, of personal conflicts with ownership or his bosses, and of being very unapologetically outspoken.

Let’s take a good look at Bobby V’s managing history:

In 1985, when he was serving as the third base coach, the Texas Rangers abruptly fired the underachieving manager Doug Radar only 32 games into the season. The 35 year old Valentine was hired as the replacement. The Rangers limped to that season’s finish line with a 62-99 record. But surprisingly, the very next year, Valentine led them to a second place finish in the AL West with an 87-75 record. When the expectations became high for the under performing Rangers in the early 90’s, Valentine publicly butted heads with George W Bush (at the time running the team) and was let go in the middle of the 1992 season.

In 1995, Valentine took over managing the Chiba Lotte Marines in the Japanese baseball league. He was the first American manager in the Japanese leagues. Though the expectations weren’t high for the Marines that year, Valentine led them to a 2^nd place finish. Overnight, Valentine was a surprise sensation in Japan. But then just as quickly, he butted heads with the GM of the team and was fired before he was able to even start the second season of his 2-year contract. Typical Bobby V!

In 1996 he came back to the US and joined the New York Mets organization as a minor league manager. With only 31 games left in 1996 season, the Mets brought up the brash Bobby and gave him the reigns to run the team. Valentine helped the team start to strut its stuff by going 88-74 in both 1997 and ’98. 1999 and 2000 were very strong ones for both Bobby V and the Mets. The Mets won 97 and 94 games respectively and made the playoffs with the wildcard birth each time. Of course, in 2000, the Mets went onto face the Yankees in the World Series, though they eventually lost. Despite the team’s success during these 4 years, Bobby V and the GM Steve Phillips constantly butted heads. This included Philips firing 3 members of Valentine’s coaching staff during the 1999 season and hiring his own replacements without any input from Valentine. Bobby V, thanks to his team’s success, was able to hold out until Phillips finally fired him after the 2002 season.

As a quick aside, 1999 was when Valentine infamously returned to the dugout in a disguise after being thrown out of the game. Who can forget that moment when Bobby V hid in the dugout shadows with the fake moustache? That moment has become to define (for right or wrong) Bobby V.

In 2004, Valentine went back to Japan to manage the Chiba Lotte Marines for a second stint. In the second year he led the Marines to their first Championship in over 30 years! Bobby V became a cult figure with the Japanese baseball fans. But to no surprise, he butted heads with the club president over the next couple of years and was let go after the 2009 season. Amazingly, a petition was presented to the team signed by 112,000 fans to keep him on as manager to no avail.

Another quick aside, during this time Valentine had a movie made about him (called “the Zen of Bobby V”). ESPN made the film following him and his 2007 Chiba Lotte Marines team all year long. This film probably didn’t help the situation in Japan since their culture promotes team philosophy over individual attention. Something that is very tough to balance in a major sport like Baseball, in my opinion.

With this body of work, there is quite an obvious pattern here. No need to bring in any specialists to examine the clues! Bobby Valentine can win and he knows baseball, but in the end he rubs too many people the wrong way. This is usually the scenario after he has gotten his team to start playing winning baseball. He usually survives longer than his boss wants him to, because of his teams’ success. This shows he is used to managing in a dysfunctional atmosphere if nothing else. But there is no history of his helping such a team’s atmosphere improve.

Will Valentine help to cleanup Beantown’s dysfunctional atmosphere? History is against Bobby V on that one. He may help the Red Sox find some focus and start winning again, but that will only hide the underlining miasma. Sooner or later we all know Bobby V will crash and burn. It won’t be pretty. I can hardly wait to see a Kevin Youkilis or a Josh Beckett put Bobby V into a headlock!

Free Agent Signing – Freddy Garcia

This article could also have been titled “the State of the Yankee Rotation”, or perhaps even “When will the Yankees make a big move?”

Freddy Garcia signed a one year contract with the New York Yankees for at least a $4 million dollar payday. Considering the bargain that Garcia was for the Yankees last year (he only cost $1.5 mil), along with his consistency (he went 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA), there was no reason not to make this move again for this year. The 35 year old Garcia, as a back of the end rotation starter, provides the Yankees with valuable innings and stability.

The Yankees might make another move with a starting pitcher at some point but this signing makes it much less of a stressful situation for them. Already having recently re-signed their ace CC Sabathia, Garcia joins AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova as probable starters for the Yankees. The Yankees also have some youngsters that they are closely watching by the names of Manuel Banuelos (20 years old) and Dellin Betances (23 years old). But all signs are pointing to them both receiving at least another year of minor league seasoning.

Banuelos only has had 7 starts at AAA and the huge Betances (6 feet, 8 inches tall!) has even less AAA experience with just 4 starts. It’s hard to imagine either forcing his way onto the team in spring training, and really there is no reason for the Yankees to rush them. When you closely examine the current starters in terms of their ages, the Yankees are doing fine with their combo of youth and experience. CC is 31, AJ is 34, Garcia is 35, Hughes is still only 26 and Nova is the baby of the bunch at 24!

While the Yankees are kicking the tires of most free agent pitchers I would say it’s 50/50 at best they sign someone else. Instead, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees made a trade to upgrade their rotation. So far, the free agents pitchers currently on the market haven’t had much success in generating the interest and offers they want, and you can’t blame them for trying to get the Yankees involved. CJ Wilson, Roy Oswalt and Mark Buerhle’s agents have all talked to the Yankee brass in hopes of getting a bite… but so far the Yankees have resisted any such signings.

And, it seems, every week the Yankees are rumored to be involved with another pitcher. Last week the Yankees were supposedly talking to the Oakland A’s about Gio Gonzalez. This week’s rumor is the Yankees trying to trade for Matt Garza of the Cubs. Garza is intriguing, since he has previously pitched successfully in the AL East division and will be only 28 years old. But with the Yankees the rumors are non-stop and it’s impossible to take any of them seriously. After all, they are the only team in baseball where every rumor, no matter how ludicrous, is always a possibility!

The Yankees could be silently waiting to see how the situation with the Japanese phenom Yu Darvish shakes out… to see if he actually becomes available for the Major League teams to bid on. But it’s hard to see the Yankees going overboard for him after the colossal failures of past imports Kei Igawa and Hideki Irabu. No matter how much money an organization has, throwing away millions upon millions of dollars will make you gun shy.

Signing Garcia was a solid move, since a baseball team can never have enough arms, as the saying goes. I fully expect at least one more starter in the Yankee mix when the season starts. It’s just impossible right now to guess whom the Yankees will target next!

Rounding the Bases – Week Ending 11/27/11

This has been a loooong week my fellow baseball nerds, for myself that is. I had 3 teeth removed on Monday, including two wisdom teeth. Then, I went to visit my in-laws starting Wednesday, for the long Thanksgiving weekend, not coming home until Sunday night. And, unfortunately, my mother in-law has been recently bed ridden with back issues. I hope she gets better soon!  But enough about me… onto the important Baseball!

Starting with this Sunday's article, and continuing on every future Sunday, I will cover some of the previous week's smaller (but interesting) moves, rumors and happenings.

Boston’s Search For A New Manager:

It would seem that the manager search has been narrowed down to two solid baseball people, Bobby Valentine and Gene LaMont. Both gentlemen have interviewed with multiple Boston bigwigs in the past week, and a decision should come this week. With the St Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs making much quicker manager hiring’s you have to wonder why the Red Sox are dragging their heels to make a decision.

Both finalists are in their 60’s, have outstanding baseball resumes and have both managed two previous major league teams. Valentine also managed a Japanese team, winning the Japanese World Series in 2005! Perhaps the main reason for the delay is that the two candidates are opposites in the their approach to managing. LaMont is old school, laid-back, levelheaded and lets the players play type of manager. He never looks for personal attention. That can hardly be said of Valentine, who is notorious for seeking the limelight. Valentine can be very outspoken and has gotten himself in trouble, eventually, everywhere he has been. It will be interesting to see which way the Red Sox decide to go!

Wednesday’s Arbitration Deadline:

With the deadline for teams to offer players arbitration, there was a flurry of last minute activity (rumor has it that the MLB’s sole fax machine went down). In the end, every major free agent was offered arbitration, except for Roy Oswalt. By major, we mean classified an “A” type free agent, where the original team would receive a compensation pick (or two) if the player signs elsewhere. I guess the Phillies were scared Oswalt might accept their arbitration offer! The players now have until this coming Wednesday to either accept arbitration or decline it. I expect at least one major free agent surprise acceptance! My initial gut instinct would be David Ortiz agreeing to arbitration with the Red Sox.

Free Agent Signings:

While there hasn’t been much movement yet in the free agency market, a few smaller signings occurred this week.

Grady Sizemore re-signed with the Cleveland Indians for 1 year at $5 mil. His contract also has substantial incentives in the neighborhood of another $4 million. I have a feeling that the 29 year old Sizemore realized he wasn’t going to receive any offer much more substantial than that. Plus he probably felt a loyalty to the Indians who have stuck by him throughout multiple injury years (Sizemore has only played 210 games over the past 3 years, ouch!).

Bruce Chen re-signed with the Kansas City Royals for 2 years at $4.5 mil per. The 34 year old lefty Chen has had a solid couple of years in a row with the Royals so his resigning with them isn’t much of a surprise. He actually led the Royals in wins last year with 12! With the signing of Chen and the recent trade the Royals made for Jonathan Sanchez, it looks like the Royals are now just one solid veteran starter away from a very capable rotation (the young Danny Duffy and Luke Hochevar each have showed promising flashes).

Ryan Doumit signed with the Minnesota Twins for 1 year at $3 mil. I think this was a nice move by the Twins as Doumit can play first base, the corner outfields and backup Joe Mauer at catcher (not that anyone is claiming any great fielding prowess at any of these positions). The lefty Doumit hit .303 with a .353 onbase and .477 slugging in 77 games last year. I am inclined to think that the Twins will carry three options at catcher during the coming season, since the Twins are coming to grips with how fragile Mauer has been. And Doumit’s position flexibility and solid offensive production go hand in hand with the Twins organizational philosophy.

Clint Barmes signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 2 years at $10.5 mil total. The Pirates had a huge hole at shortstop (both offensively AND defensively) and they curiously decided to fill it with what I can only label as an unbelievable overpayment for the enigmatic Barmes. The funniest part (by funny I mean dreadfully sad) is that the 32 year old Barmes instantly became the highest paid Pirate with the signing! This is just the type of silly free agent signing for which the small market Pirates have been famous for the past 20 years… who exactly were they bidding against to land Barmes? And, if they needed an emergency stopgap shortstop, why a second year? He will easily join Doug Strange, Pat Meares, Terry Mullholland, Derek Bell, Kevin Young, Jeremy Burnitz and Pokey Reese (amongst others) as just awful signings the Pirates have done to keep their team mediocre and cash poor. What a shame!

Free Agent Signing – Joe Nathan

The Texas Rangers made a very interesting move in signing Joe Nathan to be their closer. They signed the 37 year old Nathan for 2 years at $14.5 million with an option for a third year. This signing allows them to move their 23 year old fireballer Neftali Feliz into the rotation. This probably signals the end of CJ Wilson’s tenure with the Texas Rangers since the Rangers already have Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando in their rotation.

There are always concerns about signing a 37 year old closer, especially one that had Tommy John surgery (he had the surgery in March of 2010). But Nathan’s second half numbers showed that he was coming into his old pre-Tommy John form. His July-August-September were a vast improvement over his 1^st half:

29 GP, 27.1 IP, 11 Saves, 20 hits, 5 BB, 26 K’s, 3.29 ERA, .200 AVG

Nathan was a dominant closer, one of the top handful, with 35 or more saves from 2004 through 2009 before his surgery. He is a 4 time all-star (2004, 2005, 2008 and 2009) along with having the 5^th most saves for active pitchers with 261. After most Tommy John surgeries the pitcher returns as good if not stronger then before. But it usually takes a minimum of 18 months for most pitchers to start regaining their previous form, and this coincides perfectly with Nathan’s 2011 season. At the price tag and years this would seem to be a no brainer for the Rangers. And if they need to give Nathan a breather here and there, they have the solid Mike Adams who they traded for in the middle of last season. Adams has been a top setup man for the past 4 years.

For the ageing Nathan this move would also seem to be a no brainer. It’s a chance to pitch for a contender that has made two straight World Series appearances. And, most pitchers relish the opportunity to pitch for the Texas Rangers and Nolan Ryan. As an early fantasy ranking I would confidently place Nathan in the top 15 closers going into next year’s draft.

The other interesting part of this signing is the move to the rotation for Neftali Feliz. There is always the argument over what is more valuable to a team, a top notch closer or an ace starting pitcher? Most analysts side with the ace starting pitcher which Feliz projects to one day become. But, the young Feliz has yet to show any command in the majors with his off-speed stuff, something he didn’t have to worry about that much as the closer. And his walks per innings as the closer left a lot to be desired! (30 BB's in 62.1 IP)

On the other hand how many 23 year old fireballers do you know that have completely mastered the art of pitching in the majors? I am reasonably confident that at the back end of the Rangers rotation Feliz will be able to work on his mechanics and become a dominant starter over the next couple of years. After all, the Rangers have already proven they can take their relievers and move them into their rotation with success, a la CJ Wilson and Alexi Ogando.

2011 NL MVP Award Winner Announced

In what amounted to a two horse race, Ryan Braun was named the National League Most Valuable Player over Matt Kemp. The two outfielders had similarly explosive statistical seasons with the slightest of edges leaning to Matt Kemp. But I correctly predicted that Braun would win the award anyway, simply based on his team’s competing for the post-season whereas Kemp’s team did not. (Yes, I did just toot my own horn!)

Top Ten NL MVP vote Getters (Courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers – 20 1^st place votes         – 388 points

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers – 10 1^st place votes        – 332 points

Prince Fielder. Milwaukee Brewers – 1 1^st place vote         – 229 points

Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks – 1 1^st place vote      – 214 points

Albert Pujols, St Louis Cardinals                                          – 166 points

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds                                                 – 135 points

Lance Berkman, St Louis Cardinals                                     – 118 points

Troy Tulowitzski, Colorado Rockies                                     – 69 points

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies                                       – 52 points

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies                                      – 39 points

The rest of the field in order of points received: Jose Reyes, Clayton Kershaw, Shane Victorino, Ian Kennedy, Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, John Axford, Michael Morse, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Montero, Yadier Molina, Starlin Castro, Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Ruiz and Mike Stanton.

Braun, along with his 20 1^st place votes, received 2^nd place votes on the remaining 12 ballots. Braun, Kemp, Fielder and Upton were the only players to be names on all 32 ballots. The 28 years old Braun’s MVP makes him only the third different Brewer to win the Award. Robin Yount in 1982/1989 and Rollie Fingers in 1981 were the other two.

As a quick aside, Albert Pujols did it again. He placed in the top 5 in voting for the tenth time in eleven seasons! The other season he placed 9^th in voting. It’s simply amazing how Pujols constantly performs at a level of greatness each year. He is a three-time MVP winner (2005, 2008 & 2009), placed 2^nd four times, 3^rd once, 4^th once and 5^th once. Albert is the King for a reason!

OK, so what would it have taken for Matt Kemp to win the MVP instead of Braun? Either of two things, the first and easier one being his Dodgers to have been competitive instead of placing 3^rd in their division with an 82-79 record. The second, obviously harder of the two, would have been Kemp pulling off the fabled Triple Crown. Which he had a sincere shot at accomplishing most of the season. The Triple Crown (leading the league in AVG, HR and RBI’s) transcends almost any discussion for MVP voting. The last Triple Crown winner was Carl Yastrzemski (yes, I spelled his name right) way back in 1967.

Is it weird that Roy Halladay did better in the MVP voting over the reigning CY Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw? I definitely think so. Why wasn’t Kershaw (or even Halladay) further up in the voting anyway? The voting for the NL MVP has always been slanted worse against pitchers, in general, than the AL MVP. It’s easy to see just by how many more times the AL has voted a pitcher the MVP in the past 35 years over the NL. It’s all AL in a 7 versus 1 landslide!

In conclusion, I have to say congrats to Ryan Braun on winning and give it up to the Milwaukee Brewers. So far, the huge contract extension they gave to Braun (he is amazingly signed through 2020!) is paying off handsomely. I look forward to many more productive years from the Hebrew Hammer!

2011 AL MVP Award Winner Announced

To the surprise of many, starting pitcher Justin Verlander was voted the American League Most Valuable Player! And, even though I would have voted for him myself, it was hard for me to think he would win over the hitters. After all, it’s been 25 years since a starting pitcher took home the award (hello Roger Clemens) and 19 years since any pitcher did (I see you hiding there Dennis Eckersley). I believe this voting only confirms the changing thinking processes, which has been occurring slowly over the past 5-10 years, in baseball. Thinking processes on how to better evaluate players and compare their values properly.

Be forewarned dear reader, this article may be a bit longwinded!

Top Ten AL MVP vote Getters (courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – 13 1^st place votes            – 280 points

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox – 4 1^st place votes          – 242 points

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays – 5 1^st place votes           – 231 points

Curtis Granderson, NY Yankees – 3 1^st place votes            – 215 points

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers – 2 1^st place votes               – 193 points

Robinson Cano, NY Yankees                                               – 112 points

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox                                        – 105 points

Michael Young, Texas Rangers – 1 1^st place vote               – 96 points

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox                                           – 48 points

Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays                                         – 27 points

The rest of the field in order of points received: Ian Kinsler, Alex Avila, Paul Konerko, CC Sabathia, Adrian Beltre, Ben Zobrist, Victor Martinez, James Shield, Mark Teixeira, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon, Josh Hamilton and finally my main man David Robertson (woo hoo!).

Verlander was able to win even though he was listed on only 27 of the 28 ballots! That almost NEVER happens as the top vote getters are ALWAYS on every ballot! For example, the next 4 vote getters Ellsbury, Bautista, Granderson and Miguel Cabrera were on every ballot. Plus, it is very rare for a player to win the award with less than half the first place votes. The last player to win the AL Award like that was Alex Rodriguez in the crazy 2003 voting (10 different players received a first place vote!). As you can see from the above list, 6 different players received a first place vote this year. And it is in this exact kind of environment that one would think a pitcher has a chance to win in. An environment where there is no clear cut heads above the field offensive favorite.

If Jose Bautista or Adrian Gonzalez had 2^nd halves like their first ones, I highly doubt Verlander wins. Or, as many analysts have been saying, if the Red Sox make the playoffs then Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins instead. Also, having multiple hitters from the same teams had to help Verlander (2 Yankees and 3 Red Sox) since they probably took votes away from each other. If either Adrian Gonzalez or Dustin Pedroia don’t have those great seasons then perhaps Ellsbury receives enough votes to overtake Verlander. While having another MVP candidate on his team (the smasher Miguel Cabrera) probably didn’t affect Verlander in the same manner (IMHO). Once a voter came to terms that he would vote for a pitcher over a hitter, he was voting for Verlander regardless.

Surprisingly, Verlander is only the second pitcher to ever be awarded the Rookie of the Year Award (he won in 2006), The CY Young Award and the MVP Award. The other was the pitching great Don Newcombe who won all three awards with the Brooklyn Dodgers (Rookie in 1949, CY Young and MVP in 1956).

As a quick aside, the Detroit Tigers have been a great organization for producing MVP Award winners over the years, having Verlander, Hal Newhouser (twice), Hank Greenberg (twice), Denny McLain, Guillermo (Willie) Hernandez, Mickey Cochrane, and Charlie Gehringer.

Changing gears for a moment, a word on why the latest popular advanced stat WAR makes me laugh out loud in a discussion like this. The latest stat WAR (Wins above Replacement) seems to be making an appearance on every TV baseball show and in many analysts’ articles/blogs. It has been gaining momentum as a mainstream tool to compare players’ seasons. I won’t bore you with the exact details of how it is figured out (to make it more fun, pitchers and hitters have different formulas too). In layman’s terms WAR means how many wins a player adds to a team over the random replacement player.

2011 AL WAR Leaders (courtesy of the Baseball-reference.COM website):

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers                    8.5

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays                  8.5

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox                 7.2

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers                     7.1

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox                6.9

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox                  6.8

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees                6.8

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels              6.5

Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays                6.3

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays                 6.1

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox                     6.1

As you can plainly see the pitchers have a nice presence with this advanced stat! The reason I laugh is because I can’t shake the feeling that this is supposed to mean the average replacement player for Verlander would have had 15 or 16 wins for the Detroit Tigers! Really?! I am sorry but I just don’t see that as reality.

OK, let’s back to the heart of the discussion for this MVP Award! Which is the argument of a whether a pitcher should ever be seriously considered. The basic argument for the hitters is just the plain common sense of how can someone who only plays every fifth day (or in the best case scenario for a reliever, every other day), be as valuable as someone who plays everyday?

There cannot be any denying that when a starting pitcher takes the mound every 5^th game, he is the single most important person on the team that day. He can affect the outcome of the game greater than any single player does (yes I understand the incredible single offensive days hitters have, I am talking on an average day to day, game to game affect, over a season). A great starting pitcher has an even larger affect than their one individual game start, giving a bullpen important rest, which positively impacts the next 2-4 games a team plays (just ask the Red Sox what happened the last month of the season, for the opposite affect).

For fun, we can point out that a pitcher can affect the game every pitch they throw. Verlander averaged 115.9 pitches a game – 1^st in the AL, for a total of 3,941 pitches thrown in all. Or, if you like total batters they faced instead, Verlander faced 969 batters – 3^rd in the AL.

Let’s compare some of this info versus Jacoby Ellsbury, who came in 2^nd in the MVP voting. Ellsbury played in 154 games in the field with a total number of 394 fielding chances, good for 2^nd amongst CF’s in the AL (he made an amazing zero errors which helped him win the gold glove). Ellsbury led the AL with 732 PA’s (Plate Appearances) in his 158 GP (he pinch hit or DH’d for 4 additional games). If we add the two figures together we get 1,126 total times Ellsbury affected a game.

I readily admit this is a very basic comparison at best, but Verlanders’ 969 batters faced isn’t far off Ellsbury’s 1,126 figure. Especially when you factor in how much Verlander helped rest his team’s bullpen. And Ellsbury easily was in the leaders in the AL with his figure, being the leadoff batter for his team. I can live with this as a simplistic refutation of the conventional nonsense, er… wisdom, about everyday players being more important. For the average pitcher’s season this may be true, but definitely not for the top pitching seasons!

A quick aside to do a shout out to my man David Robertson making a showing in the MVP voting! After both appearing in the CY Young and MVP voting, Robertson is making a statement for the forgotten middle relievers!

Finally, to me, it looks like the voters are making better decisions. I see Verlander’s 2011 MVP, Felix Hernandez’s 2010 CY Young and Zack Greinke’s 2009 CY Young as proof of this recent trend. It almost washes out the bad taste I still have from Bartolo Colon’s CY Young Award in 2005, when Mariano Rivera should have finally been awarded one. Not quite, but almost! 

2011 NL CY Young Award Winner Announced

Clayton Kershaw overwhelmingly won the National League CY Young Award yesterday with 27 out of a possible 32 first place votes. The other 5 voters listed Kershaw 3 times for second place and twice for third place. The CY Young Award is voted on by 2 writers from each city that has a team (the specific writers are chosen by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America). Since the National League has 16 teams, there were 32 ballots cast. Most baseball pundits expected Kershaw to win but for the voting to be much closer than it actually was. Kershaw joins an amazing list of Dodgers to have won the CY Young Award over the years; Don Newcombe (1956), Don Drysdale (1962), Sandy Koufax (1963, 1965 and 1966), Mike Marshall (1974), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), Orel Hershiser (1988) and Eric Gagne (2003).

NL CY Young Voting (Courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – 27 first place votes  207 points

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies – 4 first place votes            133 points

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies                                                       90 points

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks – 1 first place vote              76 points

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies                                                17 points

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants                                             7 points

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers                                             5 points

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants                                                    3 points

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers                                                    2 points

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves                                                        2 points

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants                                  1 point

Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants                                        1 point

Top 5 Vote Getters 2011 Season:

Kershaw – 33 GS, 5 CG, 233.1 IP, 248 K’s, 21-5 record, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA

Halladay – 32 GS, 8 CG, 233.2 IP, 220 K’s, 19-6 record, 1.04 WHIP, 2.35 ERA

Lee –        32 GS, 6 CG, 232.2 IP, 238 K’s, 17-8 record, 1.03 WHIP, 2.40 ERA

Kennedy – 33 GS, 1 CG, 222 IP, 198 K’s, 21-4 record, 1.09 WHIP, 2.88 ERA

Hamels –   31 GS, 3 CG, 216 IP, 194 K’s, 14-9 record, 0.99 WHIP, 2.79 ERA

How often do you see so many great pitching stat lines in the same season? It truly has become a pitching renaissance in baseball! To win the CY Young Award amongst such heavy competition can only mean Kershaw’s season was top notch! And it was; he led the NL in Wins, K’s, ERA, WHIP, opponent’s batting average (.207), lowest OPS against (.554) and pickoffs (9). He was 2^nd in winning percentage (.808), quality starts (25), K’s per 9 innings (9.57), and third in IP, CG and finally K to BB ratio (4.59). Not too shabby!

The startling young 23 year old Kershaw also won the fabled old school “pitcher’s triple crown” (Wins, K’s and ERA), while pitching for a .500 team (82 –79 record). Pretty impressive! That would make him the youngest CY Young winner since Dwight “Doc” Gooden at the tender age of 20 way back in 1985. Let us hope Kershaw’s career track turns out differently than Doc’s did!

But, why didn’t Kershaw win unanimously? Are there any real arguments for someone else to have won instead of Kershaw? Halladay came in second in the voting, so let’s compare the two…

The average fan can understand discussing one player’s team playing for the postseason (as Halladay’s Phillies did) when the other player’s team did not (as Kershaw’s Dodgers did not). Should pitching for a team playing meaningful games weigh extra? Also, the average fan probably understands pitching in different divisions. The NL West included two of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball, the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres. Kershaw simply dominated those two teams in his 9 starts against them (going 8-0!), while Halladay only faced the Padres for 2 starts. Big difference! Finally, every fan understands the concept of pitching in a “pitcher’s ballpark” (Dodger Stadium) versus pitching in a “hitter’s ballpark” (Phillies’ Citizens Bank Park). Kershaw’s mother must not have raised a dummy as Clayton Kershaw took full advantage of his home field, where he went nuts posting a 12-1 record with the major’s lowest ERA at home with a 1.69!

A few of the more modern baseball analysts also insist there were arguments to be made, especially for Halladay. Halladay had another robust season and, either tailed Kershaw by the slimmest of margins, or led Kershaw, in every basic statistical category that matters. But when using the newest (and most popular) advanced stats such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement) or FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), the modern analysts point out that Halladay comes out way on top!

But just hold on here…

Maybe one day, when those advanced stats become widely accepted and mainstream, I will agree that Halladay should have won the 2011 NL CY Young Award. But until then I will stick with my personal pick Clayton Kershaw. I happen to think the award is for the best individual pitching season, not necessarily the most valuable one. And Kershaw performed at the top of his game when he was supposed to! Isn’t that the true sign of being a mature winning pitcher?

Just a quick aside here, how crazy is it for the Phillies to have 3 of the top 5 vote getters? Turns out its not unheard of at all, having happened twice since 1998! The 2005 Houston Astros had Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner while the 1998 Atlanta Braves had Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.

In conclusion, congratulations to Clayton Kershaw on his simply great season. He won’t be sneaking under anyone’s radar anytime soon, not with this award in his trophy case!

2011 Manager of the Year Award Winners Announced

Kirk Gibson for the National League and Joe Maddon for the American League each comfortably won their league’s respective Manager of the Year Awards on Wednesday. Gibson received 28 of the 32 first place votes in the National League voting and Maddon received 26 of the 28 first place votes in the American League. Almost as big a story as how easily the two managers won was the fact that Tony LaRussa only received one first place vote while coming in third in the NL voting! But more on LaRussa later…

NL Manager of the Year Voting (Courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks – 28 first place votes – 152 points

Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers – 3 first place votes – 92 points

Tony LaRussa, St Louis Cardinals – 1 first place vote – 24 points

AL Manager of the Year Voting (Courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays – 26 first place votes – 133 points

Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers – 1 first place vote – 54 points

Ron Washington, Texas Rangers – 1 first place vote – 31 points

Kirk Gibson took a team which finished last with 65 wins in 2010 and turned them into a lean, mean fighting machine! Managers of the year are almost exclusively picked from the teams that make the post-season, but extra weight is always given to the managers that went “worst to first” as the saying goes. No one predicted the Arizona Diamondbacks to do much better than their previous 65 win season. But, they ended up with 29 more wins (94 total) and easily won their division, thus making Gibson an immediate candidate to win the award in just his first year of managing!

Joe Maddon also managed a team that was picked by the experts as not having a chance to compete. Not when the Rays had slashed over 30 million from their 2010 payroll! The small market Rays lost All-Stars Carl Crawford, Matt Garza and Carlos Pena. All three players were a huge part of the team’s being competitive the previous 3 years. In 2011, Maddon survived an injury to his star 3^rd baseman Evan Longoria, the shocking retirement of the Rays biggest off season pickup Manny Ramirez (only one week into the season!), and he had to guide a very young pitching rotation. (The Rays broke the MLB record for the most consecutive pitching starts made by players under 30 years old). But Maddon, who also won the award in 2008, knows what it takes to guide a young but talented team.

So let’s heartily congratulate the two winners (they both deserve it), but let’s also be very honest… will anyone remember them winning next year? For example, does anyone remember who won last year’s awards? The Manager of the Year Award is arguably the most subjective of all the awards given, so I can’t blame any of you for not recalling last year’s winners (Ron Gardenhire and Bud Black for those keeping score).

After all, how do you measure managing? Is it win total? Then where was Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel in the voting?! Is it simply turning a team around from a losing record to a winning record? (Gibson’s case) Or is it simply based on the most improvement in wins a team has? Jim Leyland’s Tigers, for example, improved 14 games from 2010 while Maddon’s Rays actually won 5 fewer!

Or is it other measurable facts; like team payroll, or the number of all-stars on the roster or even the average age of your players? Should these be the tiebreakers for close voting? Perhaps it’s only the intangibles like clubhouse culture, instilling that “winning attitude” that should count. But what came first, actually winning or the winning attitude? Is there any team that was able to win without the “winning attitude”?

Some might even try comparing managers by what they do on the field, the number of times they hit and run, bunted, switched pitchers or even the number of times they were thrown out of a game! With today’s statistical analysis there is a stat kept for everything, so why not how many time a manager touched his left cheek while giving the signs?

I am speaking, perhaps, a bit tongue in cheek while trying to make a point. The point that there isn’t any one recognizable grouping of factors when voting for the Manager of Year Award. My case in point is Tony LaRussa (who I am personally glad didn’t win). After all, didn’t LaRussa just do the same exact thing with the Cards that Maddon did with the Rays? How many times do teams come back from so far down to make the post-season? It should also be pointed out that if the voting was done after the World Series, instead of immediately after the regular season, LaRussa would have probably won the award over Gibson!

Baseball fans may not always remember the years they won, but they remember MVPs and CY Young Award winners. They also remember most of the gold glove winners and many of the All-Stars. Once a player has achieved a great award it stays with them as a legacy. How few managers this is true of. The managers most remembered are the ones who were on the teams that won world championships, plain and simple. The manager who will be most remembered, unfortunately, from the 2011 season is the one from the World Champion St Louis Cardinals.

There is no denying that their managers, to some extent, helped the teams who reached the post-season. But by how much, we can’t really properly quantify. And that is the near thankless nature of the position of manager. That is the reason it is acceptable to celebrate Gibson's and Maddon’s fine seasons and then, of course, just as acceptable to forget about them!

2011 AL CY Young Award Winner Announced

Justin Verlander, in a pre-ordained landslide, was the unanimous pick to win the American League CY Young Award. There was no one in the baseball universe that expected any other outcome than this unanimous vote. The CY Young Award is voted on by 2 writers from each city that has a team (the specific writers are chosen by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America). Since the American league has 14 teams, there were 28 ballots cast. Anyone who had a vote, if they didn’t list Verlander as their first place pick, would have been shunned by the rest of the baseball community! Plain and simple! This marks the 9^th time an AL pitcher has won unanimously. Surprisingly, Verlander is the first American League former Rookie of the Year to also win the AL CY Young Award! (It has been done 5 times in the National League).

AL CY Young voting (Courtesy of the BBWAA.COM website):

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers                      196 points

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels                   97 points

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays                      66 points

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees                     63 points

Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers                           28 points

CJ Wilson, Texas Rangers                                 9 points

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels                         7 points

Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees                  4 points

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox                           3 points

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays                     2 points

David Robertson, New York Yankees               1 point

Where to begin with the spectacular 28 year old fireballer’s season? Verlander was dominant all year long, at one point winning 12 straight starts, while helping his team win their first division title since 1987. Verlander led the AL in winning percentage (.828), wins (24), innings pitched (251), WHIP (0.92), strikeouts (250), quality starts (28), lowest OPS against (.555), pitches per start (115.9) and opponent’s batting average (.192). Just amazing! He also threw in a no-hitter, against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 7^th, just for good measure!

The 2^nd through 4^th place pitchers all had very respectable seasons and could have been serious CY Young contenders in a different year. 

Jered Weaver – 33 GS, 235.2 IP, 198 K’s, 18-8 record, 1.01 WHIP, 2.41 ERA

James Shield – 33 GS, 249.1 IP, 225 K’s, 16-12 record, 1.04 WHIP, 2.82 ERA

CC Sabathia – 33 GS, 237.1 IP, 230 K’s, 19-9 record, 1.23 WHIP, 3.00 ERA

Jered Weaver has slipped under the mainstream radar for some reason, despite 3 extremely solid seasons in a row, including leading the league in strikeouts in 2010. Thankfully, the voters have noticed, as he was the only other pitcher listed on every ballot besides Verlander.

James Shield became the master of the complete game last year, easily leading the league with 11 complete games. Very weird since he hadn’t had a single one in the previous two years!

CC Sabathia is a perennial CY Young Award candidate, having finished in the top 5 in voting every year since winning the award in 2007. Very few starters have CC’s ability to log major innings, stay focused and help carry their team to the post-season.

The rest of the field was led by Jose Valverde’s perfect save season, 49 saves in 49 chances. Usually there are several closers appearing every year in the voting, but rarely do the closers win the award.

Also, I should note, the great honor that was bestowed on David Robertson! Middle relievers are almost NEVER acknowledged in the CY Young voting. By receiving even a single vote, Robertson’s incredible season has been confirmed by the mainstream media.

In conclusion, congrats Justin Verlander on an amazing season. One that I fully expect he can come close to duplicating a couple of more times!

2011 Rookie Awards Announced

Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson were announced Monday as the respective NL and AL Rookie of the Year. I was correct in my predictions for how the rookie voting would go, though Hellickson won the AL much easier than I expected. I still would have voted for Eric Hosmer myself! This was the first pair of pitchers to win since 1981, when Fernando Valenzuela and Dave Righetti took home the awards. What fond memories of Fernando mania and of Dave Righetti I have… man, I am getting old!

National League Voting:

Craig Kimbrel                – 160 points – 32 first place votes

Freddie Freeman           – 70 points – 0 first place votes

Vance Worley                – 40 points – 0 first place votes

Kimbrel’s season – 55.2 IP, 127 K’s, 4-3 record, 46 SV, 1.04 WHIP, 2.10 ERA

Freeman’s season – 157 GP, 67 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB, .282 AVG, .795 OPS

Worley’s season – 21 GS, 119 K’s, 11-3 record, 1.23 WHIP, 3.01 ERA

American League Voting:

Jeremy Hellickson           – 102 points – 17 first place votes

Mark Trumbo                    – 63 points – 5 first place votes

Eric Hosmer                     – 38 points – 4 first place votes

Ivan Nova                         – 30 points – 1 first place vote

Hellickson’s season – 29 GS, 117 K’s, 13-10 record, 1.15 WHIP, 2.95 ERA

Trumbo’s season – 149 GP, 65 R, 29 HR, 87 RBI, 9 SB, .254 AVG, .768 OPS

Hosmer’s season – 128 GP, 66 R, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, .293 AVG, .799 OPS

Nova’s season – 27 GS, 98 K’s, 16-4 record, 1.33 WHIP, 3.70 ERA

NL Comments:

Craig Kimbrel, the Atlanta Braves closer, won in a landslide! Kimbrel correctly received all 32 first place votes to make the vote unanimous in the NL for the first time since Albert Pujols won in 2001. Kimbrel had a monster season, especially impressive when you take into account it was his rookie year and that he is only 23 years old! His season included, tied for first in saves with 46, tied for second in appearances with 79, 38 straight appearances without a run at one point, and an overpowering 127 strikeouts in just 77 innings, phew! Kimbrel was probably over used and it showed down the stretch run as the Braves faded. We shall have to closely monitor if this will affect the young pitcher going forward.


The Atlanta Braves have to be excited, also having another young rookie in the 22 year old Freddie Freeman. It took the young Freeman a couple of months to get completely comfortable in the majors. He hit only .225 in April but then stepped up in May with a .312 Average. Kimbrel and Freeman are the first pair of NL teammates to be voted 1-2 since 1989, when the Chicago Cubs had Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith in the outfield. I actually played fantasy baseball using both players! Oh man, I am getting old.


And finally, as if the Philadelphia Phillies needed any more starting pitching, the 24 year old Vance Worley showed up to help deepen the National Leagues’ already deepest rotation… scary!

AL Comments:

The 24 year old Jeremy Hellickson won as easily as he did probably because of the voters paying attention to the division he pitches in. No one can argue that the AL East division doesn’t have the hardest lineups to face in all of baseball. And with Tampa making a strong run during the last month of the season, Hellickson shined in his 5 September starts. Many voters are swayed by a player’s strong finish as much as any factor (true for all the major awards).


The powerful 25 year old Trumbo soared into 2^nd in the AL voting on the strength of his 29 homeruns and 87 ribbies. Both are very impressive totals for a rookie! But, I would have thought that the voters would have looked deeper, and seen the all around solid season that Eric Hosmer had. The 22 year old Hosmer played in 20 games fewer than Trumbo, but still had favorably comparable counting stats in Runs, RBI and SB, while having a far superior batting average and OPS. Trumbo has only one advantage over Hosmer and that is raw power. Trumbo will one day hit 40 homers without a doubt. It might come with a .240 average and 150+ strikeouts, but there is no doubting Trumbo’s raw power. Trumbo hit 2 of the three longest bombs in the AL last year, one for 472 feet!


Finally, I showed where Ivan Nova finished in the voting, since many Yankee fans probably think he should have won. The 24 year old Nova had a very solid season everyone can agree. 16 wins and a 3.70 ERA in the pressure cooker of New York is nothing to be ashamed of! But Nova did have the 3^rd highest run support in the league with 6.7 runs a game and he needs to show more consistency than his 1.33 WHIP. On the positive side, Nova showed a ton of moxy the second half of the season after being sent down briefly to the minors. Yankee fans have a lot to be excited for with Nova. And, hopefully, I will never get too old to see (and enjoy) all these young players having fine careers!

What Is OPS And Why Is It A Useful Stat?

Statistics has helped man summarize sports and evaluate individuals ever since men figured out what to do with their free time. You will find stats from ancient Greece, where they measured how far someone threw a javelin, to last week’s horse race, where they can tell you how many times the winning horse’s heart beat per minute as it crossed the finish line. And, of course, you can find a wide range of useful and not so useful stats for analyzing baseball. Baseball’s natural pace seems to easily lend itself to record keeping and this, in turn, leads to creating more stats as a way to usefully keep record.

One stat that I use quite often is OPS. OPS is short hand for On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage. It is one of the relatively new wave of statistical measurements that have become mainstream in baseball. In the earliest days of baseball’s history, there were only several basic stats that were used. Batting average, runs scored and runs allowed (for example), and these were probably (in some form) taken from Cricket since they translated to the newer game very easily. Every few years someone will devise a new stat to measure a part of baseball that they deem as important. That is, important to that individual personally or important to help them describe/analyze a part of the game that was hard to properly discuss.

It usually takes a while for a new stat to become accepted by the mainstream and for Major League Baseball to adopt it as an official one. And the OPS stat was no exception. OPS originally surfaced in a 1984 book titled “The Hidden Game of Baseball”. Shortly after, The New York Times carried this stat in its weekly leader section. At some point the incredible baseball journalist Peter Gammons started to use OPS as a viable stat to help describe and analyze the players he was discussing. This accelerated the popularity of OPS and in 2004 it even showed up on Topps baseball cards!

How is OPS used? It is considered an advanced stat, not just a simple stat with an independently intrinsic value, since combining other stats generates it. OPS’s true value comes from being a useful, if slightly flawed, tool to compare hitters. It is simplistic in its comparison approach though, so most baseball people don’t always treat it as a first class stat. This is because OPS’s two main components (OBP and SLG) have equal weight, but the two components can arguably mean totally different things when describing a hitter.

On Base Percentage fundamentally corresponds to the most basic of stats, runs scored. The more times you can get on base the greater chance you have to score. Slugging Percentage fundamentally corresponds to the ability to drive the ball. SLG uses the player's total bases accumulated from their hits. The more extra base hits will equal more total bases, ergo the better you drive the ball the higher your slugging percentage will be.

The people who argue that these two stats should not be weighted equally do have a point worth noting since OPS by itself will always favor the slugger over the singles hitter. Most years the OPS leaders are simply dominated by sluggers with maybe one or two “speedsters” or singles hitters in the top 15 or top 20.

2011 Top ten OPS Leaders:

Jose Bautista                     1.056

Miguel Cabrera                  1.033

Ryan Braun                         .994

Matt Kemp                           .986

Prince Fielder                      .981

Lance Berkman                   .959

Adrian Gonzalez                  .957

David Ortiz                          .953

Joey Votto                           .947

Jacoby Ellsbury                   .928

How many singles hitters or speedsters do you see on this list? The lowest homerun total on this list was 27, provided by Adrian Gonzalez. The highest OPS last season by a hitter with fewer than 20 homers? That would be Alex Avila’s 19 homers to go with his .895 OPS. That OPS was good enough for 19^th best in the majors. The highest OPS last season by a hitter with fewer than 10 homeruns?  That would be the NL batting champ Jose Reyes’s 7 homers to go with his .877 OPS. That was good enough for 26^th place in the majors.

So if OPS isn’t a completely accurate comparison stat for hitters why use it? Because OPS has great value as a quicker, more compact, discussion method. Shorthand if you will. Instead of having to compare on base percentage and then separately compare slugging percentage, then diagnose both those stats, you simply combine the two and make do with OPS’s flaw. I know that when I write and discuss a hitter’s general season I always use OPS. If I need to make a more direct point when discussing a player then I will break out On Base and Slugging as needed. OPS, despite it’s flaw, has become a much more popular stat for baseball fans and analysts. While, on the other hand, teams and coaches do not give it nearly as much value.

Finally, it may be that OPS has actually become a better tool for describing a pitcher’s season then previously thought. The level of success that a pitcher had can be measured with OPS against them and that seems to be a fairly accurate tool that more and more analysts are using.

In leaving, I present a list of the top ten CAREER leaders in OPS:

Babe Ruth                        1.164

Ted Williams                    1.116

Lou Gehrig                       1.080

Barry Bonds                     1.051

Jimmy Fox                        1.038

Albert Pujols                     1.037

Hank Greenberg              1.017

Rogers Hornsby               1.010

Manny Ramirez                 0.997

Mark McGwire                   0.982

2011 Award Predictions time!

Starting on Monday baseball will start rolling out its major awards for the 2011 season. Next week, especially, will be packed with the announcements. Monday will be the rookies of the year for each league. Tuesday will be the AL CY Young Award winner. Wednesday will be the managers of the year. Thursday will be the NL CY Young Award winner. Phew, busy week!

So, if I were going to step up with some predictions, now would be the time! Here are my predictions on who will win what award (tongue twister time). Please take note, this is NOT simply who I would vote for myself, though most of these predictions are aligned with that. I will point out whom I, if I had a vote, would have picked.

For those of you that weren’t aware, the come back players of the year were already announced. Not really too surprisingly, the winners were Lance Berkman with the St Louis Cardinals and Jacoby Ellsbury with the Boston Red Sox.

On to the predictions:

AL Rookie of the Year – Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

Runner up – Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (My pick)

Hellickson had a nice year for a rookie. The voters will see his 13 wins, his WHIP of 1.15 and his ERA of 2.95 and that will decide the award. But Hellickson had severe command issues at times (189 IP, 72 BB, 117 K’s). He was also handsomely rewarded by the Rays solid defense and second half charge into the playoffs. But, Eric Hosmer had the best all around rookie season, in my opinion, and deserves the award.

Hosmer 2011 season – 128 GP, 66 R, 27 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, .293 AVG

NL Rookie of the Year – Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (My Pick)

Runner up – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

While Freeman, Vance Worley and even Danny Espinoza should get some votes, this award shouldn’t even be close. Kimbrel was as dominate a rookie closer as there ever has been. Kimbrel’s 46 saves were a rookie record and his 127 strikeouts were more than most rookie starting pitchers in the majors!

AL CY Young Award winner – Justin Verlander (My pick)

Runner up – CC Sabathia

Is there even a question?

NL CY Young Award winner – Clayton Kershaw (My Pick)

Runner up – Roy Halladay

Kershaw will win by a slim margin over Halladay in the voting. Halladay posted his usual busted season and he simply does not walk anyone! (Just allowing 1.35 walks per 9 innings) But Kershaw was first in the NL in wins, K’s, ERA, WHIP, second in win percent, and third in IP and CG. Dominant!

Kershaw’s 2011 season – 33 GS, 5 CG, 233.1 IP, 248 K’s, 21-5 record, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA

Halladay’s 2011 season – 32 GS, 8 CG, 233.2 IP, 220 K’s, 19-6 record, 1.04 WHIP, 2.35 ERA

Just a quick aside, there is a good chance the Philadelphia Phillies will end up with 3 of the top 5 vote getters with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels! How often does that happen?

AL Fireman of the Year – Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

Runner up  - Mariano Rivera (My pick)

Basically Valverde will win the award based on the strength of his not blowing a single save chance during the regular season. Not to mention that his 49 saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .198 batting average against are all excellent. But Mariano, other than saves, edges out Valverde in every other important category. Not to mention that you can rely on Mariano to come into a non-save situation and still perform like a closer. Something Valverde has a problem doing. Oh yes, and Mariano still performs like this after 600 career saves!

Mo’s 2011 season – 64 G, 61.1 IP, 44 SV, 89.8 SV%, 0.90 WHIP, 1.91 ERA

NL Fireman of the year – John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (My pick)

Runner up – Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Axford is still an unknown to many baseball fans, but after his busty 2011 season people need to pay attention! He led the league in saves with 46 and only blew 2 saves for an amazing 95.8 save percentage (anything close to 90 percent is a dominate season). In over 73 innings, Axford had a 1.14 WHIP, 1.95 ERA and a K rate of 10.5 per 9 innings. Finally, he has one of the best moustaches in the game like a dominant closer should!

AL Manager of the year – Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers (My pick)

Runner up – Joe Maddon, Tampa Rays

The Tigers went from an 81 win season in 2010 to a 95 win season in 2011. From the very beginning of the season Leyland’s calm influence could be seen when dealing with Miguel Cabrera’s DUI arrest. Leyland had to blend fading stars (Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen) with youngsters (Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Rick Porcello) to produce a winning chemistry. No one does it smoother than Leyland.

NL Manager of the year – Tony LaRussa, St Louis Cardinals

Runner up – Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks (My Pick)

With a month left to the season LaRussa would not have been on anyone’s radar for manager of the year. But one amazing month later his team came back to oust the wildcard from the Atlanta Braves. Even with the voting being done before the post-season starts, LaRussa will edge out my pick Kirk Gibson, who really had less to work with but instilled a winning mentality in Arizona.

AL Most Valuable Player – Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

Runner up – Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (My pick)

This will be one of the closest MVP races in some time, with probably 5 players all within a few votes of each other. Maybe it’s the neurotic Yankee fan in me that thinks that the award will end up in Ellsbury’s trophy case. Not that he wouldn’t be a solid choice, after all, how many other players have had 30/30 seasons, hit .322, had 211 hits and 46 doubles? Er… that would be none. Ever. But even with Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Paul Konerko and Adrian Gonzalez all having MVP type seasons, my pick would still be a pitcher by the name of Justin Verlander. No matter how this award is voted it will be a great discussion about the value of the hitter versus pitcher!

NL Most Valuable Player – Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (My pick)

Runner up – Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Even though another top MVP candidate is on Braun’s own team (Prince Fielder), I still see him getting enough votes to overcome Kemp. Both Braun and Kemp had similarly amazing offensive seasons but I think Braun edges him out and the voters will agree. Braun had his season where every game mattered unlike Kemps’ Dodgers who were out of contention very early. And I think this makes a big difference in the MVP voting. Braun was 1^st in the NL in Slugging (.597) and OPS (.994), 2^nd in Avg (.332) and runs scored (109), 4^th in RBI (111), 5th in Onbase (.397), 6^th in HR (33) and finally, 7^th in SB (33). As complete an all around season as you can have!

Now, for some last minute fun! Here is my selection on another type of award. The Least Valuable Hitter Award (or LVH for short). This award is for the worst hitter in all of baseball from the 2011 season. And there were some doozies to choose from, ouch! You would think that once a player gets two hundred at bats and is still struggling to hit his weight that the club would give up on him. But what to do when you are paying gobs and gobs of money to the player? Especially a newly signed free agent?!

Here is my LVH list in descending order:

7) Jayson Werth – 561 AB, 69 R, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 19 SB, .232 Avg, .718 OPS

6) Carl Crawford – 506 AB, 65 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB, .255 Avg, .694 OPS

5) Aubrey Huff – 521 AB, 45 R, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB, .246 Avg, .676 OPS

4) Alex Rios – 537 AB, 64 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 11 SB, .227 Avg, .613 OPS

3) JD Drew – 248 AB, 23 R, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .222 Avg, .617 OPS

2) Chone Figgins – 288 AB, 24 R, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .188 Avg, .484 OPS

And the number one least valuable hitter was…

Adam Dunn – 415 AB, 36 R, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 0 SB, .159 Avg, .569 OPS

Congratulations Adam Dunn!
Dunn broke the record for the lowest batting average in history, minimum 500 PA (Rob Deer is off the hook!). Throw in 66 hits versus 177 strikeouts to become only the second player in history to strikeout over 100 times more than getting a hit (why hello there Mark Reynolds). Also, not many hitters have accomplished a higher strikeout total than their average (177 to .159). And yes, I unfortunately admit, Adam Dunn was on a couple of my fantasy teams last year!