It’s never too early in the off-season to start talking about fantasy baseball for 2012! This list is my hyper-early top 25 fantasy player rankings. There are still some things, of course, which may affect this early list even before the season starts next year. Trades are made, players are still free agents, injuries occur and we have to wait to properly assess some players recovering from injuries.
When I speak of fantasy baseball I am working with the most basic 5x5 fantasy league settings in mind. 5 hitting categories (Runs, HR, RBI, SB and AVG) and 5 pitching categories (K, Wins, Saves, ERA and WHIP). Because the basic fantasy league only focuses on these 10 stats alone, the player rankings in fantasy don’t necessarily match up to the rankings a person would have in real life. The stolen base becomes a very valuable stat for a fantasy player to have when it comes along with the other four offensive stats. Some players on my list will be higher up than you would think simply because their stats include the all mighty stolen bases.
You will also notice that I do NOT subscribe to drafting closers early in ANY draft format. You will never see any closer in my top 25 list ever. I also am not a big believer in drafting early starting pitching since there is so much solid pitching out there. Also, Starting pitching in general has some of the most inconsistent stats year to year (even the best of starters can easily have a mediocre year). I can, however, subscribe to the notion of picking up one of the elite Aces to anchor a fantasy rotation. I am also a big believer in targeting position scarcity. In other words, if an OF and a SS had the same great stats I would draft the shortstop first since there are fewer good shortstop options in the fantasy world.
Now onto the list (along with my comments on the top ten)!
1 - Ryan Braun, Left field
King Albert has owned this spot in most fantasy pre-season rankings for the past 5-6 years simply based on his high level of consistent MVP type seasons. When you get a top pick in a draft you shouldn’t use it on someone who usually gets hurt most seasons. Nor on a player who shows inconsistency from year to year. Well Ryan Braun has been as consistent (consistently great that is) in his 5 major league seasons as anyone in baseball. Last season Braun even upped his stolen bases to 33! You can confidently expect more of the same even if Prince Fielder ends up leaving the Brewers.
2011 Season – 109 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, .332 AVG
2 - Matt Kemp, Center field
Matt Kemp vaulted up the fantasy rankings with a major offensive explosion in 2011. Kemp finished one homerun shy of the exclusive 40/40 club (40 homers and 40 stolen bases). Basically, the combination of homerun power and stolen base speed is the rarest of attributes in baseball (and highly coveted when building your fantasy team). As a consequence, in many drafts you will see many of the players with that combination disappear off the draft boards very quickly.
2011 Season – 115 R, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, .324 AVG
3 – Miguel Cabrera, First base
Miguel Cabrera has posted such great numbers consistently, it would be scary if he ever got his personal life together and decided to dedicate himself to baseball greatness. He could become one of the top five right-handed hitters in baseball history if not just our generation, he’s that good with the lumber!
Past 8 full seasons average: 158 GP, 101+ R, 33+ HR, 115+ RBI, .320 AVG
4 – Jacoby Ellsbury, Center field
Ellsbury proved two things with his monster 2011 campaign. The first, that his .300 average from 2009 was no fluke. The second, that he can stay healthy for a full season. No one doubted Ellsbury’s speed or ability to play defense, but many doubted he would ever hit for power or be a big time run producer. Ellsbury put those negative thoughts to rest to become a fantasy elite player!
2011 Season – 119 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, .321 AVG
5 – Albert Pujols, First base
King Albert drops this year all the way to 5th in the rankings. Largely because of his age (32 in January) but also because his stats last year were just a small notch below his usual level. And, although Pujols always seem to be able to play through them, he has had several small nagging injuries the past several years. Those injuries will only slow him down, as he gets older. Almost every player in history, who plays twenty years in the majors, statistically shows a decline in the second decade as compared to the first decade. It’s only natural. The only exceptions occurred during the steroid era (Barry Bonds is one shining example of an unnatural career arc).
2011 Season – 105 R, 37 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB, .299 AVG
6 – Jose Bautista, Third base/Right field
Jose Bautista slowed down his offensive production dramatically during the second half last year (combination of pitchers pitching around him and the dreaded, some say mythical, homerun contest doldrums). But Jose still led baseball in homeruns for the second consecutive year. He easily proved his 2010 season was no fluke. His eligibility at two positions also makes him very flexible for a fantasy roster!
2011 Season – 105 R, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, .302 AVG
7 – Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop
Even though Troy has been fragile the past couple of years he has still put up elite power numbers for a shortstop. The position scarcity at shortstop should move him into the top ten in all fantasy rankings. Troy has averaged fewer than 139 games played the past 3 years, but he still has averaged over 90 R, over 29 HR, over 97 RBI, 13 SB and a .308 AVG. Imagine if he plays a full season healthy!
8 – Adrian Gonzalez, First base
Adrian proved that moving to Fenway from PETCO Park in San Diego would only help his value grow. Where Adrian loses a few homeruns because of the Fenway Green Monster (Boston's left field wall), he gains doubles, hits and plenty of ribbies with the stacked Boston lineup. Expect more of the same from Adrian!
2011 Season – 108 R, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB, .338 AVG
9 – Robinson Cano, Second base
Robbie has turned into a perennial MVP candidate. His offense (and defense for that matter) is at the very top of any second base rankings. And second base, while having more useful players than shortstop for fantasy purposes, is still a scarce enough position to help move Robbie into the top ten.
2011 Season – 104 R, 28 HR, 118 RBI, 8 SB, .302 AVG
10 – Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher
I usually don’t have a pitcher crack my top ten rankings. But Justin Verlander forced his way in with a season where he just simply dominated the American League. Verlander was first in wins with 24, first in innings pitched with 251, first in strikeouts with 250, first in ERA with 2.40, first in WHIP with 0.92 (nuts!), first in Win percentage with .828 and finally only fourth in complete games with 4. His season was so good that there are even some baseball analysts that are calling for him to win the AL MVP Award!
11 – Joey Votto, First base
12 – Prince Fielder, First base
13 – Justin Upton, Right field
14 – Hanley Ramirez, Shortstop
15 – Roy Halladay, Starting Pitcher
16 – Dustin Pedroia, Second base
17 – Jared Weaver, Starting Pitcher
18 – Clayton Kershaw, Starting Pitcher
19 - Evan Longoria, Third base
20 – Curtis Granderson, Center field
21 – Cliff Lee, Starting Pitcher
22 – Jose Reyes, Shortstop
23 – Andre Beltre, Third base
24 – Tim Lincecum, Starting pitcher
25 – Mark Teixeira, First base
Honorable mentions in no particular order: Josh Hamilton, CC Sabathia, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Howard, Carlos Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, Mike Stanton, Ian Kinsler, Aramis Ramirez and Paul Konerko.
As you can see, when a player hits 39 HR and 111 RBI but is only listed 25th (hello Mark Teixeira), that must mean first base is just loaded fantasy-wise! There are 3 first basemen in the top ten and 6 in the top 25. Many fantasy veterans would say you can’t win without a bomber at first base and I agree. But there are many to choose from and no need to panic. You can always pick up a Paul Konerko, Michael Morse or Freddie Freeman later on.
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