2011 Award Predictions time!

Starting on Monday baseball will start rolling out its major awards for the 2011 season. Next week, especially, will be packed with the announcements. Monday will be the rookies of the year for each league. Tuesday will be the AL CY Young Award winner. Wednesday will be the managers of the year. Thursday will be the NL CY Young Award winner. Phew, busy week!

So, if I were going to step up with some predictions, now would be the time! Here are my predictions on who will win what award (tongue twister time). Please take note, this is NOT simply who I would vote for myself, though most of these predictions are aligned with that. I will point out whom I, if I had a vote, would have picked.

For those of you that weren’t aware, the come back players of the year were already announced. Not really too surprisingly, the winners were Lance Berkman with the St Louis Cardinals and Jacoby Ellsbury with the Boston Red Sox.

On to the predictions:

AL Rookie of the Year – Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

Runner up – Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (My pick)

Hellickson had a nice year for a rookie. The voters will see his 13 wins, his WHIP of 1.15 and his ERA of 2.95 and that will decide the award. But Hellickson had severe command issues at times (189 IP, 72 BB, 117 K’s). He was also handsomely rewarded by the Rays solid defense and second half charge into the playoffs. But, Eric Hosmer had the best all around rookie season, in my opinion, and deserves the award.

Hosmer 2011 season – 128 GP, 66 R, 27 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, .293 AVG

NL Rookie of the Year – Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (My Pick)

Runner up – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

While Freeman, Vance Worley and even Danny Espinoza should get some votes, this award shouldn’t even be close. Kimbrel was as dominate a rookie closer as there ever has been. Kimbrel’s 46 saves were a rookie record and his 127 strikeouts were more than most rookie starting pitchers in the majors!

AL CY Young Award winner – Justin Verlander (My pick)

Runner up – CC Sabathia

Is there even a question?

NL CY Young Award winner – Clayton Kershaw (My Pick)

Runner up – Roy Halladay

Kershaw will win by a slim margin over Halladay in the voting. Halladay posted his usual busted season and he simply does not walk anyone! (Just allowing 1.35 walks per 9 innings) But Kershaw was first in the NL in wins, K’s, ERA, WHIP, second in win percent, and third in IP and CG. Dominant!

Kershaw’s 2011 season – 33 GS, 5 CG, 233.1 IP, 248 K’s, 21-5 record, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA

Halladay’s 2011 season – 32 GS, 8 CG, 233.2 IP, 220 K’s, 19-6 record, 1.04 WHIP, 2.35 ERA

Just a quick aside, there is a good chance the Philadelphia Phillies will end up with 3 of the top 5 vote getters with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels! How often does that happen?

AL Fireman of the Year – Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

Runner up  - Mariano Rivera (My pick)

Basically Valverde will win the award based on the strength of his not blowing a single save chance during the regular season. Not to mention that his 49 saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .198 batting average against are all excellent. But Mariano, other than saves, edges out Valverde in every other important category. Not to mention that you can rely on Mariano to come into a non-save situation and still perform like a closer. Something Valverde has a problem doing. Oh yes, and Mariano still performs like this after 600 career saves!

Mo’s 2011 season – 64 G, 61.1 IP, 44 SV, 89.8 SV%, 0.90 WHIP, 1.91 ERA

NL Fireman of the year – John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (My pick)

Runner up – Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Axford is still an unknown to many baseball fans, but after his busty 2011 season people need to pay attention! He led the league in saves with 46 and only blew 2 saves for an amazing 95.8 save percentage (anything close to 90 percent is a dominate season). In over 73 innings, Axford had a 1.14 WHIP, 1.95 ERA and a K rate of 10.5 per 9 innings. Finally, he has one of the best moustaches in the game like a dominant closer should!

AL Manager of the year – Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers (My pick)

Runner up – Joe Maddon, Tampa Rays

The Tigers went from an 81 win season in 2010 to a 95 win season in 2011. From the very beginning of the season Leyland’s calm influence could be seen when dealing with Miguel Cabrera’s DUI arrest. Leyland had to blend fading stars (Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen) with youngsters (Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Rick Porcello) to produce a winning chemistry. No one does it smoother than Leyland.

NL Manager of the year – Tony LaRussa, St Louis Cardinals

Runner up – Kirk Gibson, Arizona Diamondbacks (My Pick)

With a month left to the season LaRussa would not have been on anyone’s radar for manager of the year. But one amazing month later his team came back to oust the wildcard from the Atlanta Braves. Even with the voting being done before the post-season starts, LaRussa will edge out my pick Kirk Gibson, who really had less to work with but instilled a winning mentality in Arizona.

AL Most Valuable Player – Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

Runner up – Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (My pick)

This will be one of the closest MVP races in some time, with probably 5 players all within a few votes of each other. Maybe it’s the neurotic Yankee fan in me that thinks that the award will end up in Ellsbury’s trophy case. Not that he wouldn’t be a solid choice, after all, how many other players have had 30/30 seasons, hit .322, had 211 hits and 46 doubles? Er… that would be none. Ever. But even with Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Paul Konerko and Adrian Gonzalez all having MVP type seasons, my pick would still be a pitcher by the name of Justin Verlander. No matter how this award is voted it will be a great discussion about the value of the hitter versus pitcher!

NL Most Valuable Player – Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (My pick)

Runner up – Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Even though another top MVP candidate is on Braun’s own team (Prince Fielder), I still see him getting enough votes to overcome Kemp. Both Braun and Kemp had similarly amazing offensive seasons but I think Braun edges him out and the voters will agree. Braun had his season where every game mattered unlike Kemps’ Dodgers who were out of contention very early. And I think this makes a big difference in the MVP voting. Braun was 1^st in the NL in Slugging (.597) and OPS (.994), 2^nd in Avg (.332) and runs scored (109), 4^th in RBI (111), 5th in Onbase (.397), 6^th in HR (33) and finally, 7^th in SB (33). As complete an all around season as you can have!

Now, for some last minute fun! Here is my selection on another type of award. The Least Valuable Hitter Award (or LVH for short). This award is for the worst hitter in all of baseball from the 2011 season. And there were some doozies to choose from, ouch! You would think that once a player gets two hundred at bats and is still struggling to hit his weight that the club would give up on him. But what to do when you are paying gobs and gobs of money to the player? Especially a newly signed free agent?!

Here is my LVH list in descending order:

7) Jayson Werth – 561 AB, 69 R, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 19 SB, .232 Avg, .718 OPS

6) Carl Crawford – 506 AB, 65 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB, .255 Avg, .694 OPS

5) Aubrey Huff – 521 AB, 45 R, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB, .246 Avg, .676 OPS

4) Alex Rios – 537 AB, 64 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 11 SB, .227 Avg, .613 OPS

3) JD Drew – 248 AB, 23 R, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .222 Avg, .617 OPS

2) Chone Figgins – 288 AB, 24 R, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .188 Avg, .484 OPS

And the number one least valuable hitter was…

Adam Dunn – 415 AB, 36 R, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 0 SB, .159 Avg, .569 OPS

Congratulations Adam Dunn!
Dunn broke the record for the lowest batting average in history, minimum 500 PA (Rob Deer is off the hook!). Throw in 66 hits versus 177 strikeouts to become only the second player in history to strikeout over 100 times more than getting a hit (why hello there Mark Reynolds). Also, not many hitters have accomplished a higher strikeout total than their average (177 to .159). And yes, I unfortunately admit, Adam Dunn was on a couple of my fantasy teams last year!