Should A Pitcher Ever Win The MVP Award?

It’s a great debate that seems to arise every 4-5 years or so. Usually, the topic surfaces whenever a pitcher posts a season like Justin Verlander just did, or whenever there is no clear-cut offensive player that stands out (arguably that is how Dennis Eckersley won his award in 1992 for example).

In the past 43 years there have only been only seven pitchers to win the MVP Award (and only the great Bob Gibson in the NL). And none awarded to a pitcher since 1992. This basically coincides with the rise of the steroid era in baseball and the fantastical offensive numbers posted. Way back after the 1968 season (when each league had a pitcher win the MVP award, gasp!), baseball changed the pitcher’s mound height and a few rules to get the hitters back into the swing of things (yes, pun intended). Before 1968 pitchers would win the MVP awards with enough regularity to never bring up this debate. After all, the award is worded “Most Valuable Player”, not “Most Valuable Everyday Player” nor “Most Valuable Non-Pitcher”.

But times change (where are you subway token?), trends change (whatever happened to the hula hoop anyway?) and, of course, thoughts change (remember when Lindsay Lohan was considered an up and comer?). In today’s game the conventional wisdom is that it is not possible for a player who only plays a fraction of a season to possibly be more valuable than a player who plays every day. The maximum number of starts a pitcher has nowadays is 35 thanks to the 5-man rotation. The leader in relief appearances each year usually has in the 70 to 80 games played range.

But as we get further away from the steroid’s era and back to the pitchers dominating, shouldn’t pitchers be seriously considered for MVP again? In the past decade of voting there has only been a single first place vote for a pitcher. Johan Santana received it in 2006. The last time a pitcher even landed in the top 5 in voting was Pedro Martinez in 2000.

If Justin Verlander does force his way into the MVP discussions it will only be because the thought patterns of baseball have started to change again. It almost doesn’t matter that Velander had a season where he led the American League every important pitching category if the voters refuse to consider pitchers at all. Does Justin’s season compare favorable to past winners? (for ease, I am only posting the most basic pitching stats)

2011 Justin Verlander Detroit 24-5 record, 2.40 ERA, 250 K’s

Last seven MVP pitchers:

1992 Dennis Eckersley Oakland 7-1 record, 51 SV, 1.91 ERA, 93 K’s

1986 Roger Clemens Boston 24-4 record, 2.48 ERA, 238 K’s

1984 Willie Hernandez Detroit 9-3 record, 32 SV, 1.92 ERA, 112 K’s

1981 Rollie Fingers Milwaukee 6-3 record, 28 SV, 1.04 ERA, 61 K’s

1971 Vida Blue Oakland 24-8 record, 1.82 ERA, 301 K’s

1968 Denny McClain Detroit 31-6 record, 1.96 ERA, 280 K’s

1968 Bob Gibson St Louis 22-9 record, 1.12 ERA, 268 K’s

I would say the answer is basically yes. His season is almost a mirror of Clemen’s magical 1986 season. But let’s look a little deeper too. Let’s compare Verlander’s year to this year’s probable NL CY Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw’s (he’s definitely my NL pick).

Verlander         34 GS, 251 IP, 250 K’s, 24-5 Record, 0.92 WHIP, 2.40 ERA

Kershaw          33 GS, 233 IP, 248 K’s, 21-5 Record, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA

Really, not too much distance between the two pitcher’s seasons. Does this mean Kershaw should be considered for the National League MVP? No one is even mentioning Kershaw at all, so there isn’t the slightest chance of it happening. Is Verlander’s season an historical one where the voter’s would HAVE to consider him? I would it say was an awesomely great year, but especially since the wins category doesn’t have the weight it once did, not historical in the least.

Here is a sampling of seasons that pitchers have had spanning the past 35 years, which (IMHO) compare favorably to Verlander’s season and the list of winners above:

2008 Cliff Lee Cleveland 22-3 record, 2.54 ERA, 170 K’s

2004 Johan Santana Minnesota 20-6 record, 2.61 ERA, 265 K’s

2004 Mariano Rivera NY Yankees 4-2 record, 53 SV, 1.94 ERA 66 K’s

2003 Eric Gagne Dodgers 2-3 record, 55 SV, 1.20 ERA, 137 K’s

2002 Randy Johnson Arizona 24-5 record, 2.32 ERA, 334 K’s

1999 Pedro Martinez Boston 23-4 record, 2.07 ERA, 313 K’s

1995 Greg Maddux Atlanta 19-2 record, 1.63 ERA, 181 K’s

1989 Bret Saberhagen Kansas City 23-6 record, 2.16 ERA, 193 K’s

1980 Steve Carlton Philadelphia 24-9 record, 2.34 ERA, 286 K’s

1978 Ron Guidry NY Yankees 25-3 record, 1.74 ERA 248 K’s

Finally, is there any clear-cut everyday player that stands out as the obvious AL MVP instead? The candidates in the American League should include Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista. Some might even throw an Adrian Beltre type into the discussion. But no one jumps out as a clear favorite to me… and I think that opens the door for a pitcher to step into the discussion.

So, I think Verlander does have a solid shot to win this years voting since there is no one clear cut hitter (I would vote for him), but I won’t be holding my breath!