Free Agent Signing – Heath Bell (Or, The Crazy State Of The Marlins Bullpen)

The Miami Marlins (yes, they officially go by Miami now instead of Florida) have taken another closer off the market by signing Heath Bell. The 34 year old Bell was signed for 3 years at $9 mil per with a vesting option for a 4^th year (that usually means if he plays/finishes X number of games the 4^th year will kick in). Most analysts are surprised by the Marlins giving a (probably) 4 year contract to a 34 year old closer, but I actually am not. Let me explain…

The Marlins, it turns out, were in very weird situation with their previous closer, Leo Nunez, or rather, as his real name is now known to be, Juan Olviedo. It turns out that Olviedo was playing under an assumed name and as you can guess, this has caused the Marlins some headaches. To begin with, even if they wanted him back, the Marlins are not sure of Olviedo’s immigration status. He is facing ongoing visa issues that might be followed by legal action. Olviedo may be allowed to play at some point down the road but the Marlins aren’t going to wait around twiddling their thumbs.

Unfortunately, this type of thing has been more common then you would think, both with name and age discrepancies. Especially with the Latin American players, where getting signed as a 16 or 17 year old versus as an 18 or 19 year old can mean thousands of dollars gained in signing bonuses. Throw in local legal issues, visa issues, missing paperwork, etc. and you have some players coming to play baseball in America under false documents and names. Many times it’s not always the young kid’s fault. They get talked into it by agents or the family pressures them to do it. Once done, they are scared and embarrassed to come out with the truth when they are older.

In the past 5 years, besides Nunez, er… Olviedo, the Marlins have gone through a ton of closer issues. Don’t let Olviedo’s last couple of seasons’ save totals fool you (36 last year and 30 in 2010). In the middle of every season the Marlins seem to pull their current closer out of that role and insert a new one. This usually follows by reinserting the previously pulled closer back into that role after several other candidates quickly fail. Do you remember the clown cars you would see at the circus when you were a kid? Where a small car would pull up and clowns would keep pouring out non-stop? The Marlins closer situation has felt like that. Over the past 5 years here is the list of pitchers getting a save for them (be thankful I spared you from the list of pitchers credited with a blown save, a list at least 3 times as long!):

Juan Olviedo (Leo Nunez), Steve Cishek, Burke Badenhop, Clay Hensley, Tim Wood, Matt Lindstrom, Dan Meyer, Brendan Donnelly, Kevin Gregg, Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Henry Owens, Lee Gardner, Renyel Pinto, Taylor Tankersley.

I am sure a few names look familiar, but most names you’ve never seen before. But where is Bozo? Very mysterious. Anyways…

The Marlins are moving into their new spectacular stadium next year. They have been very active talking to most of the top free agents on the market (so far they have contacted Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Mark Buerhle and CJ Wilson just to name a few). They are hoping to make a big splash to go along with the new team name and new stadium (not to mention new uniforms and hopefully new winning attitude). The last thing the Marlins need is anymore closer headaches to think about while trying to market this new… well… everything!

So that explains the 3-4 years given to a 34 year old closer, phew. But was Heath Bell even a good choice? After all, there are still several closers available as free agents or through trades. The easy positive for Bell is his having been an elite reliever for the San Diego Padres over the past 5 years (2 as the setup man to Trevor Hoffman, 3 as the closer). He is actually the only reliever in baseball to have 40 plus saves the past 3 seasons. Bell’s other numbers have all been very solid over that span. Last year, other than strikeouts, he had his typical line.

2011 Heath Bell Season – 64 GP, 62.2 IP, 51 Hits, 4 HR, 21 BB, 51 K’s, 3-4 record, 43 Saves, 5 blown saves, 1.15 WHIP, 2.44 ERA

Most baseball analysts have been quick to point out his age and his decline in K’s per 9 innings last year (a supposed big indicator for aging relievers). His strikeout rate was 11.1 per 9 innings in 2010 but dropped to 7.3 in 2011. But I have to quote baseball analyst Rob Neyer’s fantastic refutation of that sentiment:

“But you know, relief pitchers don’t throw a great many innings. Odd things can happen. In 2006, Mariano Rivera struck out 55 batters in 75 innings; two years later, he struck out 77 batters in 71 innings. Was Rivera a different pitcher in those two seasons? Probably not. He was probably the same pitcher, who just happened to be somewhat strikeout-unlucky in the former season.”

And Neyer is totally correct! I know it’s tough to compare anyone to the Great Mariano. But, as Neyer also goes on to correctly point out, “if Heath Bell had struck out two more batters in each month of the 2011 season, we wouldn’t be having this particular conversation.” Well said indeed, as all it takes is a monthly breakdown of certain baseball stats to see how small the difference really is. The difference between a .300 hitter and a .290 hitter, for example, over the average season is only 1.5 hits a month!

If I had to voice any concerns over Heath Bell, it would be that he has possibly become a product of his surroundings in the cavernous Petco Park in San Diego. He is a strikeout/extreme fly ball pitcher, which you would assume has helped him tremendously at home. But surprisingly, under closer scrutiny, this doesn’t seem to have been the case at all. Over the last 3 seasons total:

8 HR total, 5 at home, 3 on the road

.219 average total, .219 at home, .218 on the road

132 saves/14 blown total, 60 saves/7 blown at home, 72 saves/7 blown on the road

Also, the Padres may be offensively challenged, not have the deepest starting rotation, and not be perennial contenders, but the one thing they make sure they can do is play D. Especially in their outfield! (Fangraphs has their combined outfield range as the 5^th best in the game for example). I don’t think the same claim can be made for the Marlins outfield. Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison are, at best, adequate outfielders range-wise. And who knows who will be the Fishes’ CF this year? The Marlins outfield might end up haunting Bell.

How will the new Marlin Stadium play out? Will it be hitter friendly, pitcher friendly or neutral? Early indications are that it will be a better place for hitters, so this may also become a concern (especially in years 3 and 4 of the contract) when Bell’s fastball loses a few miles per hour and his fly balls travel farther!

I think Heath Bell is a safe play for them overall. Where, if the Fish strikeout on all the other big time free agents, they can point to him as making some noise and attempting to spend some money. Or simply put, help the Miami Marlins attract the attention of their fans to come to their new shiny park!