Trade – Red Sox Acquire Andrew Bailey

The Boston Red Sox have been searching for additional bullpen help since they decided to let Jonathan Papelbon leave via free agency. By trading for Andrew Bailey they have taken a huge step to fill Papelbon’s vacancy. The Red Sox are actively trying to level off their payroll and get below the current luxury tax threshold (which I believe is $178 million for 2012 and 2013). In order to achieve that, with some of the massive salaries they are locked into, they have to be intelligent about how they spend the remaining payroll dollars.

The Red Sox traded OF Josh Reddick, and two low level prospects, infielder Miles Head and pitcher Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A’s for Bailey and OF Ryan Sweeney.

The 27 year old Bailey is entering his 4^th season and 1^st year of arbitration eligibility. It is assumed he would receive $4 mil max in arbitration, if they actually go to arbitration. The Red Sox probably will buy out his remaining arbitration years, which makes life easier for them and Bailey. After all, the biggest knock on Bailey has been his health, so why wouldn’t he want a guaranteed contract?

In college, 5 years ago, Bailey had Tommy John surgery. For some pitchers that means no more issues, for others it means non-stop issues. Bailey has been fighting injuries the past two years so there is some concern (and rightly so). But when he has pitched he has succeeded, at least in the cavernous Oakland stadium. In 2010 he had bone chips in his elbow, which cut his season short, and he had surgery to remove them. In 2011, he had a strained forearm issue in spring training and didn’t start his season until May 29th. But, if you aren’t able to pay for the elite, healthy closers, Bailey is as solid a closer you can get in a trade for his base salary.

In his 3 seasons, when on the field, Bailey has performed at an elite or near elite level. Over that period, his stats compare favorably with any other closer, other than staying healthy and the corresponding save totals. He was the Rookie of the year in 2009, his one completely healthy season. If you had to be concerned, it was his pitching style in his home park in Oakland, as compared to his road numbers. While his ERA and saves are solid both home and away, it’s his walk to strikeout ratio, jump in WHIP and batting average against that is noticeable. Some of that can be simply explained by his confidence of pitching in the huge Oakland Coliseum ballpark. Bailey probably challenged batters there much more aggressively than he would have on the road, simply because he knew his mistakes wouldn’t hurt him as severely.

Andrew Bailey’s 3 year career stats:

157 GP, 174 IP, 117 H, 49 BB, 174 K, 7-10 record, 75 saves, 3 holds, 0.95 WHIP, 2.07 ERA, .188 Avg against, .534 OPS against.

Home: 35 saves, 19 BB, 106 K, 0.85 WHIP, 2.17 ERA, .180 Avg against

Away: 40 saves, 30 BB, 68 K, 1.06 WHIP, 1.96 ERA, .197 Avg against

Getting the solid, if unspectacular, Ryan Sweeney back in the trade was a very important piece for the Red Sox. The Red Sox have been waiting patiently for one of their top prospects, 23 year old right fielder Ryan Kalish, to grab hold of the major league position. But Kalish has yet to do it, and to complicate matters, is coming off of surgery on his left shoulder that will keep him from starting the season healthy. Since the A’s insisted upon them including Josh Reddick as part of the package for Bailey, they needed Sweeney to come back in the deal. Fortunately, with the A’s continuing their purge of any player making more than a second year’s salary (Sweeney has played 6 seasons), the Red Sox were able to have Sweeny included in the deal without a hassle.

The still very young 26 year old Sweeney will probably see the majority of right fielder duty, to start the season, until Kalish is healthy enough to take AB’s away from him. He is a very solid 4^th outfielder that can play and back up all 3 outfield positions proficiently. Last year he played 41 games in LF, 34 in CF and 23 in RF for the A’s. Sweeney’s offense has never been anything special (he’s a career .283 slap hitter with no power or speed), but in Fenway Park he could provide some quality at bats since he is able to hit to the opposite field. Of his career 908 balls hit into play, 349 of them have been to left field.

So we know about the two players the Red Sox received, but what about the three players the A’s received? Let’s break down what they were able to get for their young closer…


Josh Reddick, who will turn 25 in February, projects to be an above average outfielder with a slim chance of becoming an All-Star. He is a very solid defender in the corner outfields, not so much in center field. The Red Sox were using him as a 4^th OF (usually spelling JD Drew), and as a placeholder for Kalish, but were forced to move him in an attempt to improve their pitching. Last year, in half a season, Reddick didn’t bowl anyone over, but he proved he could play in the majors.

Josh Reddick’s 2011 season:

87 GP, 254 AB, 41 R, 7 HR, 28 RBI, .280 Avg, .327 OBP, .416 SLG

Miles Head is a 20 year old first baseman who played at two different Single-A levels in 2011. The Red Sox did not consider him to be in their top twenty minor league prospects. And, indeed, Head does not project as anything higher than an average major leaguer right now, but he has a long way to go before then, so anything is possible.

Miles Head’s 2011 season: (66 games Single-A, 63 games Single-A+)

129 GP, 557 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 82 RBI, .299 Avg, .372 OBP, .515 SLG

Raul Alcantara’s projected ceiling is considered much higher than Head’s. The 19 year old hard throwing righty Alcantara was considered to be in the neighborhood of the Red Sox’ tenth best minor league prospect. He pitched at Rookie and Single-A levels last year. But, again, with such a long way to go before reaching the majors, anything can happen.

Raul Alcantara’s 2011 season:

Rookie: 9 GS, 48 IP, 6 BB, 36 K, 1-1 record, 0.60 WHIP, 0.75 ERA

Single-A: 4 GS, 17.1 IP, 6 BB, 14 K, 0-3 record, 1.79 WHIP, 6.23 ERA

So basically, the Oakland A’s did NOT get a pile of succulent prospects for their young, but injury prone, closer. And with this off-season being such a buyer’s market for closers, that isn’t a real surprise. This has been an insane off-season for the movement of closers (and former closers)…

So far, the closers (or former closers) who have signed as free agents with teams includes: Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Takashi Saito.

So far, the closers who have been traded this off-season are: Mark Melancon, Huston Street and Sergio Santos.

The remaining free agent closers still include: Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, Ryan Madson, and if the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez, now Juan Oviedo, ever gets his visa situation worked out, he will be a free agent too.

Finally, rumors are that the Seattle Mariners are trying to move their closer Brandon League and Milwaukee could still try to move Francisco Rodriguez (who unexpectedly accepted their arbitration offer).

With so few true buyers left for the A’s closer, they decided to roll the dice on Reddick and two low level prospects with possible upside. And they should be happy they were able to get that… Albert Pujols and Prince fielder be damned, it truly is the off-season of the closer!