Trade – The Cincinnati Reds Acquire Mat Latos

The Cincinnati Reds were searching for another frontline starting pitcher. By shipping a bushel load of young prospects and future talent to the San Diego Padres, they may have accomplished their goal. Mat Latos is a 24 year old stud who has a great feel for pitching at a young age. In his 2 full seasons, Latos has shown he has what it takes to be a frontline pitcher. Latos did get off to a very slow start in 2011, but still came on strong to post another solid season (other than wins - the lowly Padres had the second worst record in the NL).

Mat Latos' 2010 season: 31 GS, 184.2 IP, 50 BB, 189 K, 14-10 record, 1.08 WHIP, 2.92 ERA, .217 Avg against, .601 OPS against

Mat Latos' 2011 season: 31 GS, 194.1 IP, 62 BB, 185 K, 9-14 record, 1.18 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, .233 Avg against, .655 OPS against

Latos has career groundball numbers of 44.7 percent versus 40.9 percent for fly balls. Something that is very important in the homer happy Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. San Diego’s Petco ballpark is a great place to pitch and many people think pitching there can skew a pitcher badly. But the Reds did their homework and saw that Latos has done very well on the road over the past two seasons: 35 GS, 1.15 WHIP and a 3.40 ERA.

Getting a young frontline starter, who isn’t a fly ball pitcher and is under team control for the next several years, was a very tall order to fill for the Reds. And they paid a hefty price to accomplish it. The expectations going into the 2011 season were very high for the Reds, after coming off of winning the division in 2010. But instead the Reds struggled mightily and the biggest reason was probably the failure of the starting rotation. The small market Reds couldn’t afford to sign a Mark Buehrle/CJ Wilson type, so they had to search for a team willing to part with a young number one (or number two) type starter.

The Reds had made it clear to the rest of baseball they were willing to trade some of their top prospects, including the highly touted first baseman Yonder Alonso. Alonso was expendable since they already have one of the top hitters in the game entrenched at first base, by the name of Joey Votto. The Reds game plan has been to build around pitching and Votto, who should be a perennial MVP candidate for years to come.

So what did the Padres actually get for their troubles? They had made it clear to the rest of baseball they would need a package of 4 or 5 prospects/players in return for him… but did they actually receive enough potential? Along with first baseman Yonder Alonso, the Reds shipped starter Edinson Volquez, catcher Yasmani Grandal and reliever Brad Boxberger to the San Diego Padres. Let’s break down the Padres haul…

The 28 year old Edison Volquez will immediately step into the Padres rotation replacing Latos. Volquez is a hard throwing righty who has continually battled injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) and major control issues. Though he has made appearances in 7 straight years, he has only one season of reaching 30 starts, so the Padres shouldn’t be expecting great things from him. That said, Volquez might greatly benefit from Petco Park and getting away from manager Dusty Baker (Baker is brutal on his young starters). He is also unfortunately remembered as being traded for Josh Hamilton, who went on to become an AL MVP.

Edison Volquez’s 2011 season: 20 GS, 108.2 IP, 65 BB, 104 K, 5-7 record, 1.57 WHIP, 5.71 ERA, .259 Avg against, .833 OPS against

The 24 year old Yonder Alonso is a stud lefty hitter that projects to be a solid major leaguer. Alonso is a former number one draft pick. Alonso’s path to the majors was blocked both by Joey Votto and a broken bone in his hand that robbed him of his power. While playing through the hand issue, he still put up solid numbers, though not the power numbers you normally expect from first base. This gives the Padres a pair of great prospects at first base, as they also have the power hitting 22 year old Anthony Rizzo. They could try and move one to left field, package one in a trade or have one start the season in the minors. A nice problem to have!

Yonder Alonso’s 2011 season:

2011 majors: 88 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, .330 Avg, .398 OBP, .545 SLG

2011 AAA: 409 AB, 12 HR, 56 RBI, .296 Avg, .374 OBP, .486 SLG

Anthony Rizzo’s 2011 season:

2011 majors: 128 AB, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .141 Avg, .281 OBP, .242 SLG

2011 AAA: 413 AB, 26 HR, 101 RBI, .331 Avg, .404 OBP, .652 SLG

The 23 year old Yasmani Grandal is a highly touted catching prospect who is probably still a year away from playing in the major leagues. Grandal is also a former number one draft pick. He showed some pop along with a solid .300 average at all 3 stops he made in the minors last year. But with only 4 games under his belt at AAA and unpolished catching skills, there is no reason to rush him. It still remains to be seen if Grandal will even stay a catcher. He has a cannon for an arm and calls a good game, but reports are that he has major problems actually holding onto the pitched ball. Not a very good issue for a major league catcher to have!

Yasmani Grandal’s 2011 season:
(56 games at A level, 45 at AA, 4 at AAA)

2011 combined: 374 AB, 14 HR, 68 RBI, .305 Avg, .401 OBP, .500 SLG

The 23 year old Brad Boxberger is a power pitching reliever who might one day become the Padres closer. He has a good chance of making his way onto the team out of spring training. Boxberger (I love that name!) has 2 well above average pitches with a fastball and curve, but he needs to develop a third pitch to keep major leaguers honest. Boxberger split his time in 2011 between the AA and AAA levels. And he simply dominated the AA batters!

Brad Boxberger's 2011 season:

2011 AAA: 25 G, 27.2 IP, 15 BB, 36 K, 7 Saves, 1.12 WHIP, 2.93 ERA

2011 AA: 30 G, 34.1 IP, 13 BB, 57 K, 4 Saves, 0.85 WHIP, 1.31 ERA

If you are going to trade a top young pitcher you better be happy with what you receive back. I have to believe the Padres are very happy with what they acquired. Getting 3 solid prospects and an experienced major league pitcher under the age of 30 has to be evaluated as a job well done by the organization. The San Diego Padres are stockpiling youngsters and rebuilding their team on the cheap. This trade definitely helps them with those goals.

As for the Cincinnati Reds, adding Mat Latos to their projected rotation really deepens it. Johnny Cueto has developed into an ace, while Mike Leake and Homer Bailey are improving. The Reds would love for Aroldis Chapman to get his control issues worked out (41 BB in 50 IP) and push his way into the rotation, since his stuff is electric. But unless they add more depth to their bullpen before spring training, chances are Chapman will become a setup man or closer for them (sometimes it is easier to hide a pitcher’s control issues as a reliever).

Cincinnati’s projected 2012 starting rotation:

1) Johnny Cueto (R), age 25

2) Mat Latos (R), age 24

3) Bronson Arroyo (R), age 34

4) Mike Leake (R), age 24

Homer Bailey (R), age 25

Aroldis Chapman (L), age 23

Travis Wood (L), age 24

I always like a trade that benefits both teams. Sadly, such trades occur rarely anymore. Most trades are one sided and usually done for money dumping reasons. All in all this trade looks like it will help both teams and I heartily approve!