Pole Results as voted on by you!

Pole Results as voted on by you!
Team that will have the worst record in 2012: Houston Astros (67%)
Second player that should have been voted into the HOF in 2012: Jeff Bagwell (75%)

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Trade – Red Sox Acquire Andrew Bailey

The Boston Red Sox have been searching for additional bullpen help since they decided to let Jonathan Papelbon leave via free agency. By trading for Andrew Bailey they have taken a huge step to fill Papelbon’s vacancy. The Red Sox are actively trying to level off their payroll and get below the current luxury tax threshold (which I believe is $178 million for 2012 and 2013). In order to achieve that, with some of the massive salaries they are locked into, they have to be intelligent about how they spend the remaining payroll dollars.
The Red Sox traded OF Josh Reddick, and two low level prospects, infielder Miles Head and pitcher Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A’s for Bailey and OF Ryan Sweeney.

The 27 year old Bailey is entering his 4th season and 1st year of arbitration eligibility. It is assumed he would receive $4 mil max in arbitration, if they actually go to arbitration. The Red Sox probably will buy out his remaining arbitration years, which makes life easier for them and Bailey. After all, the biggest knock on Bailey has been his health, so why wouldn’t he want a guaranteed contract?

In college, 5 years ago, Bailey had Tommy John surgery. For some pitchers that means no more issues, for others it means non-stop issues. Bailey has been fighting injuries the past two years so there is some concern (and rightly so). But when he has pitched he has succeeded, at least in the cavernous Oakland stadium. In 2010 he had bone chips in his elbow, which cut his season short, and he had surgery to remove them. In 2011, he had a strained forearm issue in spring training and didn’t start his season until May 29th. But, if you aren’t able to pay for the elite, healthy closers, Bailey is as solid a closer you can get in a trade for his base salary.

In his 3 seasons, when on the field, Bailey has performed at an elite or near elite level. Over that period, his stats compare favorably with any other closer, other than staying healthy and the corresponding save totals. He was the Rookie of the year in 2009, his one completely healthy season. If you had to be concerned, it was his pitching style in his home park in Oakland, as compared to his road numbers. While his ERA and saves are solid both home and away, it’s his walk to strikeout ratio, jump in WHIP and batting average against that is noticeable. Some of that can be simply explained by his confidence of pitching in the huge Oakland Coliseum ballpark. Bailey probably challenged batters there much more aggressively than he would have on the road, simply because he knew his mistakes wouldn’t hurt him as severely.

Andrew Bailey’s 3 year career stats:
157 GP, 174 IP, 117 H, 49 BB, 174 K, 7-10 record, 75 saves, 3 holds, 0.95 WHIP, 2.07 ERA, .188 Avg against, .534 OPS against.

Home: 35 saves, 19 BB, 106 K, 0.85 WHIP, 2.17 ERA, .180 Avg against
Away: 40 saves, 30 BB, 68 K, 1.06 WHIP, 1.96 ERA, .197 Avg against

Getting the solid, if unspectacular, Ryan Sweeney back in the trade was a very important piece for the Red Sox. The Red Sox have been waiting patiently for one of their top prospects, 23 year old right fielder Ryan Kalish, to grab hold of the major league position. But Kalish has yet to do it, and to complicate matters, is coming off of surgery on his left shoulder that will keep him from starting the season healthy. Since the A’s insisted upon them including Josh Reddick as part of the package for Bailey, they needed Sweeney to come back in the deal. Fortunately, with the A’s continuing their purge of any player making more than a second year’s salary (Sweeney has played 6 seasons), the Red Sox were able to have Sweeny included in the deal without a hassle.

The still very young 26 year old Sweeney will probably see the majority of right fielder duty, to start the season, until Kalish is healthy enough to take AB’s away from him. He is a very solid 4th outfielder that can play and back up all 3 outfield positions proficiently. Last year he played 41 games in LF, 34 in CF and 23 in RF for the A’s. Sweeney’s offense has never been anything special (he’s a career .283 slap hitter with no power or speed), but in Fenway Park he could provide some quality at bats since he is able to hit to the opposite field. Of his career 908 balls hit into play, 349 of them have been to left field.

So we know about the two players the Red Sox received, but what about the three players the A’s received? Let’s break down what they were able to get for their young closer…


Josh Reddick, who will turn 25 in February, projects to be an above average outfielder with a slim chance of becoming an All-Star. He is a very solid defender in the corner outfields, not so much in center field. The Red Sox were using him as a 4th OF (usually spelling JD Drew), and as a placeholder for Kalish, but were forced to move him in an attempt to improve their pitching. Last year, in half a season, Reddick didn’t bowl anyone over, but he proved he could play in the majors.

Josh Reddick’s 2011 season:
87 GP, 254 AB, 41 R, 7 HR, 28 RBI, .280 Avg, .327 OBP, .416 SLG

Miles Head is a 20 year old first baseman who played at two different Single-A levels in 2011. The Red Sox did not consider him to be in their top twenty minor league prospects. And, indeed, Head does not project as anything higher than an average major leaguer right now, but he has a long way to go before then, so anything is possible.

Miles Head’s 2011 season: (66 games Single-A, 63 games Single-A+)
129 GP, 557 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 82 RBI, .299 Avg, .372 OBP, .515 SLG

Raul Alcantara’s projected ceiling is considered much higher than Head’s. The 19 year old hard throwing righty Alcantara was considered to be in the neighborhood of the Red Sox’ tenth best minor league prospect. He pitched at Rookie and Single-A levels last year. But, again, with such a long way to go before reaching the majors, anything can happen.

Raul Alcantara’s 2011 season:
Rookie: 9 GS, 48 IP, 6 BB, 36 K, 1-1 record, 0.60 WHIP, 0.75 ERA
Single-A: 4 GS, 17.1 IP, 6 BB, 14 K, 0-3 record, 1.79 WHIP, 6.23 ERA

So basically, the Oakland A’s did NOT get a pile of succulent prospects for their young, but injury prone, closer. And with this off-season being such a buyer’s market for closers, that isn’t a real surprise. This has been an insane off-season for the movement of closers (and former closers)…

So far, the closers (or former closers) who have signed as free agents with teams includes: Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Takashi Saito.

So far, the closers who have been traded this off-season are: Mark Melancon, Huston Street and Sergio Santos.

The remaining free agent closers still include: Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, Ryan Madson, and if the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez, now Juan Oviedo, ever gets his visa situation worked out, he will be a free agent too.

Finally, rumors are that the Seattle Mariners are trying to move their closer Brandon League and Milwaukee could still try to move Francisco Rodriguez (who unexpectedly accepted their arbitration offer).

With so few true buyers left for the A’s closer, they decided to roll the dice on Reddick and two low level prospects with possible upside. And they should be happy they were able to get that… Albert Pujols and Prince fielder be damned, it truly is the off-season of the closer!

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Trade – The Washington Nationals Acquire Gio Gonzalez

The Washington Nationals were able to add a solid young frontline starter to their rotation by trading for the Oakland A’s Gio Gonzalez. Granted, the Nats had to ship a truckload of prospects to the A’s, but in exchange they received a low salaried 26 year old lefty that is MLB tested (this is his first year of arbitration eligibility). Gonzalez projects to be the Nationals 2nd starter sandwiched between righties Stephan Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman.

The A’s received right-handed pitcher Brad Peacock, catcher Derek Norris, right-hander AJ Cole and left-hander Tommy Milone. Almost unnoticed is that the Nationals also received a second player, right-handed Rob Gilliam (a starting pitcher at class A level). Billy Beane, the A’s GM, made it clear he wasn’t budging from his stance on 4 solid prospects for Gonzalez which seemed to chase away several suitors including the Boston Red Sox.

The Nats had been trying to add another solid starter or two over the past couple of years with no success. While it has been easier for them to attract free agent position players the same has not occurred with pitchers. This off season they were spurned by both CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle. With the best free agents gone they turned their attention to trying to get a pitcher through a trade. Luckily for them there hasn’t been any competition for Gonzalez with the steep asking price. This allowed the Nats to work unmolested with the A’s over the past 3-4 weeks to iron out the trade.

Why did the Nationals want Gio Gonzalez so badly? In the National League East division, the powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies has an extremely left-handed hitting lineup. And with all the moves being made by the Miami Marlins this off-season, the Nats can’t sit back. The Atlanta Braves have a very solid team too, making the NL East arguably the strongest division in the NL.

Gonzalez has had two straight very solid seasons, but there are cracks in his armor. While his fastball is a force and his curveball is one of the best, his WHIP and walks are enormous issues. Issues that his home ballpark in Oakland has helped to cover up. Gonzalez led the American League in walks with 91 in 2011. And while his home numbers have been Ace quality, his road numbers have been steady but hardly worth the package of prospects the Nats gave up for him. Oakland has been one of the top 3 pitcher’s parks over the past 5 years, so a full time move to any other park will probably impact Gonzalez negatively. Hopefully the change in home ballparks will be balanced by the usual positives starting pitchers receive by moving to the National League.

Gio Gonzalez’ 2010 season: 33 GS, 200.2 IP, 92 BB, 171 K, 15-9 record, 1.31 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, .229 Avg against, .644 OPS against
Gio Gonzalez’ 2011 season: 32 GS, 202 IP, 91 BB, 197 K, 16-12 record, 1.32 WHIP, 3.12 ERA, .230 Avg against, .654 OPS against

Gio Gonzalez’ 2011 Home stats: 17 GS, 110 IP, 46 BB, 110 K, 10-5 record,
1.23 WHIP, .270 ERA, .220 Avg against, .620 OPS against
Gio Gonzalez’ 2011 Road stats: 15 GS, 92 IP, 45 BB, 87 K, 6-7 record, 1.42 WHIP, .362 ERA, .242 Avg against, .669 OPS against

So what did the A’s get for their young lefty from the Nationals? Let’s break down their bushel of prospects:

AJ Cole, the biggest prize for Billy Beane and the A’s, was rated the second highest prospect in the Nats’ system behind Bryce Harper. He is a 20 year old right-handed fireballer who many scouts think will be an ace in the majors. But he has only pitched in class A ball so far and it’s a long road to the majors from there!

AJ Cole’s 2011 Season:
Single-A: 18 GS, 89 IP, 24 BB, 108 K, 4-7 record, 1.25 WHIP, 4.04 ERA

Brad Peacock, 23 years old, is a hard throwing fly ball pitcher who should fit nicely into Oakland’s ballpark. Peacock was brought up in September by the Nats, where he started and won two games. Though there are knocks on his fastball being flat, something that major league hitters might hit hard, Peacock has a great chance to start the season in the A’s rotation in 2012.

Brad Peacock’s 2011 Season:
Majors: 2 GS, 12 IP, 6 BB, 4 K, 2-0 record, 1.09 WHIP, 0.75 ERA
Triple-A: 9 GS, 48 IP, 24 BB, 48 K, 5-1 record, 1.25 WHIP, 3.19 ERA
Double-A: 14 GS, 98.2 IP, 23 BB, 129 K, 10-2 record, 0.86 WHIP, 2.01 ERA

Derek Norris is a 22 year old power hitting catcher. He suffered a broken wrist which hurt his 2010 numbers, but he came back to hit 20 homers in 2011. His biggest knock has been his low average despite a great eye at the plate. Norris also has a very strong arm and has thrown out 41 percent of base stealers since his 2008 season. Norris hasn’t played above Double-A yet so he probably will start the year in Triple-A for the A’s.

Derek Norris’s 2011 Season:
Double-A: 423 AB, 20 HR, 46 RBI, .210 Avg, .367 OBP, .446 SLG

Tom Milone is a lefty who will turn 25 in February. Though, for some reason, the scouts are actually not that high on Milone, he had a splendid Triple-A season for the Nats. He also came up in September making 5 starts. It’s hard to not see him make the club this year, even if only as a reliever. Milone has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Tom Milone’s 2011 Season:
Majors: 5 GS, 26 IP, 4 BB, 15 K, 1-0 record, 1.23 WHIP, 3.81 ERA
Triple-A: 24 GS, 148.1 IP, 16 BB, 155 K, 12-6 record, 1.03 WHIP, 3.22 ERA

GM Beane has to be smiling after this trade! The Oakland A’s have basically given up on competing the next couple of years and are trying to get Major League Baseball to approve their move to San Jose. They are desperately trying to shift fan bases and get a new stadium. Chances are very good that in a couple of years one of these 3 pitchers will be better than Gio Gonzalez.

But no matter how you spin this trade, and the trade of Trevor Cahill, you can understand the frustration of the Oakland A’s fans. It’s hard to keep rooting for a team that doesn’t contend year after year. And trading away reasonably priced solid starting pitching is hard to justify. In my opinion the A’s organization is trying to show Commissioner Bud Selig the worst possible scenario, where almost no fans show up in 2012, and MLB is forced to OK the A’s moving.

Let’s just hope that in a couple of years the A’s situation improves and they are able to bring back the fans they are driving away!

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Free Agent signing – Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran finally made his decision and signed a two year contract with the World Champion St Louis Cardinals. The deal is for $26 million and includes a full no trade clause, something that was very important to Beltran. How important? Beltran, who will be 35 in April, probably could have received a 3rd year from another team. But Beltran, who has been traded a couple of times in his career, would rather play for a championship caliber team and have control over whether (and to what team) he is traded.
               
Inevitably, once the Cardinals passed on Albert Pujols, you knew they would target Beltran as a key piece. The Cardinals have been pleasantly active since Pujols went to the Los Angeles Angels. Sometimes World Champions sit on their laurels or worse, they break apart the winning team. So far the Cardinals have signed a new manager, Mike Matheny, Rafael Furcal to play shortstop, JC Romero to be the left-handed setup man and, of course, Beltran to play right field. This signing allows The Cards to move Lance Berkman to first base to take over for the departed Pujols. The Cards are hardly sitting pat!

The overall defense of the Cards definitely takes a sizeable hit with Pujols being replaced by Berkman at first, though Beltran is probably an upgrade in right (even while wearing a knee brace). But, the lineup should remain unaffected in terms of its depth. Beltran really makes this lineup a deep one. With several players poised to play for a full season after battling injuries in 2011, the Cardinals lineup is shaping up to be one of the best in the NL. Many baseball analysts are projecting Beltran to bat second in the lineup, which makes no sense to me. Here’s how I would write out the lineup card myself:

1) Rafael Furcal (S) – SS – Career .282 Avg .348 OBP .408 SLG
2) Jon Jay (L) – CF – Career .298 Avg .350 OBP .423 SLG
3) Matt Holliday (R) – LF – Career .315 Avg .388 OBP .541 SLG
4) Lance Berkman (S) – 1B – Career .296 Avg .409 OBP .545 SLG
5) Carlos Beltran (S) – RF – Career .283 Avg .361 OBP .496 SLG
6) David Freese (R) – 3B – Career .298 Avg .354 OBP .429 SLG
7) Yadier Molina (R) – C – Career .274 Avg .331 OBP .377 SLG
8) Daniel Descalso (L) – 2B – Career .264 Avg .333 OBP .350 SLG
9) Pitcher

As you can see the lineup is very solid and deep. Freese is starting to come into his own and if he stays healthy all season should be an All-Star. I am not 100 percent sure Matheny will give the job outright to the young Descalso at 2nd, so there could be a few other players in the mix to get at bats there. Also, when Allen Craig comes back from his knee surgery in a month or two, it will allow the Cards to regularly rest Beltran and his balky knees.

The Cardinals have a great window of opportunity to keep winning over the next 2 years, so signing the expensive and aging Beltran to just two years makes a lot of sense. Furcal is an older shortstop at 34, Berkman is 35, Chris Carpenter, who carried them in last year’s playoffs, is 36, and 30 year old Adam Wainwright is only signed for the next two years.

Beltran is as clutch a post-season player as there is, having a .366 Avg, .485 OBP and a .817 SLG in 22 post-season games. WOW! And being a switch hitter in the middle of the lineup makes it much easier for Matheny. Anything that makes a rookie manager’s life easier helps, as he will have his hands full taking over a World Championship team from Tony LaRussa. Expectations are very high in St Louis even after Pujols’ departure.

Last season was an important one for Beltran, he proved his knees were healthy and that he still could produce offensively. He hit .300 with 22 HR, 84 RBI and his OPS of .910 was 9th best in the NL. Not too shabby! The only negative against Beltran was that he missed several games and landed on the DL again (he still played 142 games). He has been battling the injury bug the past few years, and there are several Cards that also have been doing the same.

It will be an interesting season for the St Louis Cardinals and Beltran. To see if they can stay healthy and defend their title. I have a feeling they won’t repeat… no teams do anymore, it’s just too difficult. Too many things have to go right. The last team to repeat? It was the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. But when the dust settles in 2012, the St Louis fans won’t blame Beltran; I predict he will prove to be one of the best pickups this off-season!

Monday, December 26, 2011

Rounding The Bases – Week Ending 12/25/11

With the holiday season rolling along with Christmas yesterday, I figured I would post this article while I had a chance! Like most people spending the holidays with their family, it's hard to get a free moment. If you celebrate Kwanzaa, Chanukkah, Christmas, or even Festivus… please be safe and enjoy!

Here are a few of the smaller but tastier bits of baseball news and activity over the past week:

Luxury Tax News:

The Luxury Tax bill for 2011 was assessed and only two teams were hit for it. The New York Yankees, for the 9th straight year, and the Boston Red Sox for the second straight year. The Yankees owe $13.9 million and the Red Sox owe $3.4 million. They have until January 31st to make payment. The Yankees have been charged every year since the tax began, for a total of $206.1 million dollars. So far, only 4 teams have ever paid any luxury tax, the Yankees, Red Sox, the Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Angels.

Arbitration News:

Joel Peralta and the Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a one year deal avoiding arbitration. The 35 year old Peralta is a relief pitcher that had a solid season helping anchor the Rays’ bullpen. The Rays’ bullpen was a huge factor in their September run to make the playoffs. In 71 appearances Peralta had 3 wins, 6 saves, 19 holds, a 0.92 WHIP and a 2.93 ERA. Peralta also admirably filled in briefly as closer for the injured Kyle Farnsworth.

John Danks and the Chicago White Sox surprisingly avoided arbitration with a 5 year deal worth a total of $65 Million. The 26 year old Danks will earn $8 mil this coming season and $14.25 the 4 years after. The signing was a surprise since the White Sox have made noises about trying to cut payroll and have recently shopped Danks as trade bait. Danks has been a mainstay for the rotation over the past 5 years, though his 2011 season wasn’t anything to write home about. Amazing how much money a player can get after going a mediocre 8-12, with a 1.34 WHIP and a 4.33 ERA.

Japanese Player Postings:

The Texas Rangers submitted the highest bid on Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. The amount of their winning bid was for a whopping $51.7 million dollars (yikes!), which the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters can keep if Darvish signs a contract with the Rangers. You have to wonder if this is a knee-jerk reaction to the division rival LA Angels signing of CJ Wilson? The Rangers now have 30 days to negotiate and reach a deal with the 25 year old Darvish. I bet the Nippon ownership is collectively holding their breath!

Free Agent Signings:

Jason Kubel signed a two year deal worth a total of $15 mil with the Arizona Diamondbacks. There is a mutual option for a third year. Adding the lefty power hitter Kubel creates a crowded outfield for the Diamondbacks, since they already have Gerardo Parra (Gold Glove winner) in left, Chris Young in center and Justin Upton in right. The 29 year old has battled injuries the past couple of years, but when he has played he has produced. Kubel’s best season was 2009, when he batted .300 with 28 HR and 102 RBI. Last year in 99 games, he hit .249 with 12 HR and 58 RBI.

Yuniesky Betancourt signed a contract with the Kansas City Royals for 1 year. Bentancourt was kicked to the curb by the Milwaukee Brewers who declined his optional year. He had previously been traded by the Royals to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Betancourt had a decent year offensively for a fulltime shortstop, but his defense was simply atrocious, leading to the Brewers to look elsewhere. Betancourt batted .252 with 13 homers and 68 RBI in 2011.

Jason Marquis signed a one year deal with the Minnesota Twins for 1 year, $3 million. The Twins are filling out the back end of their rotation on the cheap, though it’s sad that $3 million is now considered “on the cheap”. The 33 year old Marquis is a career groundball pitcher who has a history of being brittle. Last year he started 23 games splitting time between the Washington Nationals and the Arizona Diamondbacks: 8-6 record, 132 IP, 154 H, 43 BB, 76 K, 1.49 WHIP, 4.43 ERA.

Trade Talks:

The Cincinnati Reds acquired left-handed setup man Sean Marshall from the Chicago Cubs for 3 players. The players the Reds sent were lefty starting pitcher Travis Wood, outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes. The Reds had coveted the 29 year old Marshall for some time now and worked hard to get him. He had a tremendous season as a set up man for the Cubs last year; 75.2 IP, 17 BB, 79 K, 6-6 record, 5 saves, 34 holds (good for third in the NL), 1.10 ERA, 2.26 ERA, .234 Avg against and a .566 OPS against. The Reds, once they acquired Mat Latos, had a surplus of starting pitching but needed to bolster their bullpen. So trading Travis Wood, who is only 24 years old, to accomplish this makes sense. Wood started a mediocre 18 games for the Reds last year but looked to be the odd man out of their rotation in 2012. Wood projects to be a number 3 starter in the majors at his best. Dave Seppelt, on the other hand, looks like he might become a legitimate major league hitter. Last year he hit .313 in AAA, and he won the Southern League MVP in 2010 (AA level). The final player sent is 19 year old Ronald Torreyes who mostly played 2nd base while hitting a robust .356 at A level last season.

Have a great week… see you guys for next week’s New Years edition of ROUNDING THE BASES!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Top Ten List – Japanese Born Players

Every so often I will do a top ten list. I’ve always enjoyed reading them and they can be very subjective which makes for great discussions! And in keeping with my heavy reading on Japanese players this week, I wanted to do a top ten list of the best Japanese born players in major league history. Many of the Japanese players only play 3 or 4 years in the MLB, towards the end of their baseball careers. Since many Japanese players have to wait 9 years before they can become international free agents, this makes sense. We all know about the hype of pitcher Yu Darvish, but where will he eventually land on this list?

In descending order, here is my top ten…

10) Shigetoshi Hasegawa – RHP 9 seasons (1997 – 2005)

Hasegawa was a very durable relief pitcher (in 9 years going on the DL only once), pitching 5 seasons with the Anaheim Angels and 4 years with the Seattle Mariners. He started pitching in the majors at age 29. Hasegawa was known for a quick release delivery that kept batters off balance. He was willing to do whatever a team asked of him, pitching in middle relief, as a setup man or emergency closer when needed. His best season was 2003, his lone All-Star selection, when he pitched in 63 games, had 16 saves, 12 holds, 1.10 WHIP and a 1.48 ERA.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa career stats: 517 GP, 720.1 IP, 265 BB, 447 K, 45-43 record, 33 saves, 85 holds, 1.33 WHIP, 3.70 ERA, .256 Avg against, .728 OPS against

9) Hideki Okajima – LHP 5 seasons (2007 – 2011)

Okajima was a solid relief pitcher that spent over 4 full seasons with the Boston Red Sox. He started pitching in the majors at age 31. The lefty had a very distinctive pitching motion that included pulling his head down towards third base as he followed through with his pitch. Even with his head turning away from the batter, Okajima was known for his pinpoint control, along with a baffling screwball. His first couple of years were tremendous and he helped Boston win the World Championship in his rookie season.

Hideki Okajima career stats: 261 GP, 246.1 IP, 86 BB, 215 K, 17-8 record, 6 saves, 85 holds, 1.25 WHIP, 3.11 ERA, .238 Avg against, .669 OPS against

8) Daisuke Matsuzaka (Dice-K) – RHP 5 seasons (2007 – 2011)

Matsuzaka is an erratic starting pitcher who has pitched all 5 seasons in the majors with the Boston Red Sox. Dice-K, as he is nicknamed, started pitching at age 26 in the majors. He is best known for the astronomically historic posting fee The Red Sox bid on him. Matsuzaka is also known for unbelievable bouts of wildness and for being very brittle (injury prone). Dice-K has been placed on the DL six times and had Tomy John surgery this past June. His best season was 2008 when he had an 18-3 record, with a 2.90 WHIP, and he held betters to a .211 average. That was good enough for 4th place in the Cy Young voting.

Daisuke Matsuzaka career stats: 105 GS, 1 CG, 622.2 IP, 301 BB, 568 K, 49-30 record, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 ERA, .242 Avg against, .720 OPS against

7) Akinori Otsuka – RHP 4 seasons (2004 – 2007)

Otsuka was a hard throwing relief pitcher that spent two years with both the Texas Rangers and the San Diego Padres. Otsuka started pitching in the majors at the age of 32. He posted solid stats every year as a setup man or as a closer (he saved 32 games for the 2006 Rangers). Sadly, though he wanted to continue playing, Otsuka’s career ended after he had elbow surgery in January 2008.

Akinori Otsuka career stats: 236 GP, 232 IP, 80 BB, 217 K, 13-15 record, 39 saves, 74 holds, 1.15 WHIP, 2.44 ERA, .222 Avg against, .600 OPS against

6) Hiroki Kuroda – RHP 4 seasons (2008 – 2011)

Kuroda is a control pitcher who has played all 4 of his seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He started pitching in the majors at age 33. Kuroda’s career win-loss record definitely does not reflect how well he has pitched, as the Dodgers have never supplied him much run support in his starts. His best season was 2011 where in 202 innings pitched he went 13-16 with 161 K’s, a 1.21 WHIP and a 3.07 ERA (good enough for 9th in the NL).

Hiroki Kuroda career stats: 114 GS, 2 CG, 699 IP, 163 BB, 523 K, 41-46 record, 1.19 WHIP, 3.45 ERA, .249 Avg against, .673 OPS against

5) Hideo Nomo – RHP 12 seasons (1995 – 2005, 2008)

Nomo pitched 12 years, 8 in the national league and 4 in the American league, playing for 7 different teams. Nomo is famous for escaping the Japanese baseball league by voluntarily retiring in 1994. Nomo’s first two years were incredible. He won NL Rookie of the Year in 1995 and both years he was in the top 5 for Cy Young voting. But Nomo also had mediocre and dreadful years, often having bouts of wildness with his delivery mechanics. Nomo had a unique, violent and funky pitching motion that got him the nickname “Tornado”. His mechanics also led to several years fighting through injuries. His inconsistencies and injuries were maddening, but he was still able to; lead each league in strikeouts once, lead the NL in walks once and throw a no-hitter in each league (a very rare feat!).

Hideo Nomo career stats: 318 GS, 16 CG, 1,976.1 IP, 908 BB, 1,918 K, 123 – 109 record, 1.35 WHIP, 4.24 ERA, .235 Avg against, .723 OPS against

4) Takashi Saito – RHP 6 seasons (2006 – 2011)

Saito is a relief pitcher still producing at age 41, so much so that the Arizona Diamondbacks recently signed him for the 2012 season! Arizona will mark his 5th different team he pitches for. Saito started pitching in the majors at the tender age of 36. His first two and half years were as the Dodgers’ closer, where he performed excellently (in July of his third year he sprained a ligament in his elbow). His best year was 2007 when he saved 39 games with a 0.72 WHIP and a 1.40 ERA. Not too shabby!

Takashi Saito career stats: 322 GP, 326 IP, 103 BB, 389 K, 21-15 record, 84 saves, 38 holds, 1.03 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, .199 Avg against, .565 OPS against

3) Kazuhiro Sasaki – RHP 4 seasons (2000 – 2003)

Sasaki was an outstanding closer who played all 4 years with the Seattle Mariners. He started pitching in the majors at age 32. Sasaki was a dominating closer from day 1 in the majors, saving 37, 45 and 37 games his first 3 seasons respectively. At the time, the 37 saves were a record for a rookie. He won the 2000 AL Rookie of the Year Award and was an All-Star in 2001 and 2002. He formed a trio with Jeff Nelson and Arthur Rhodes that for 3 years (2000 – 2002) was as good as a bullpen can get. Sasaki had a devastating split-fingered fastball that was nicknamed “The Thang”. He often banged heads with Seattle team officials for his Japanese style of workouts which included throwing as many as 100 pitches following games he did not appear in!

Kazuhiro Sasaki career stats: 228 GP, 223.1 IP, 77 BB, 242 K, 7-16 record, 129 saves, 0 holds, 1.08 WHIP, 3.14 ERA, .200 Avg against, .614 OPS against

2) Hideki Matsui (Godzilla) – OF 9 seasons (2003 – 2011)

Matsui, also nicknamed Godzilla, played 7 years with the New York Yankees along with single seasons for the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics. He started playing in the majors at age 29. Godzilla was a solid clutch RBI man who came up big in the spotlight, including winning the 2009 World Series MVP while playing for the World Champion NY Yankees. Unfortunately, Matsui was robbed of the Rookie of Year Award in 2003, when a couple of voters unexpectedly decided to not vote properly for a “Japanese veteran”. He holds the record for longest streak of consecutive games played to start a Major League Baseball Career with 518. He was an All-Star in both 2003 and 2004. Godzilla drove in 100 RBI’s 4 times, including the first 3 seasons he played in. He hit .300 twice, though he never came close to showing the same power he had regularly displayed in Japan (where he reached 50 homeruns once). Whereas most Japanese players butt heads with their organizations both here and Japan, Matsui never did. He was considered one of the best teammates to play with by his peers.

Hideki Matsui career stats: 1,202 GP, 4,347 AB, 1,239 H, 649 R, 173 HR, 753 RBI, 13 SB, .285 Avg, .363 OBP, .467 SLG, .830 OPS

1) Ichiro Suzuki – OF 11 seasons (2001 – 2011)

Ichiro, best known by his first name, has played all 11 of his seasons with the Seattle Mariners. Ichiro started playing in the majors at the age of 27. Ichiro was the first non-pitcher from Japan to play in the MLB. And play he did… he landed in the majors with a bang, winning both the Rookie of the Year Award and AL MVP! As a rookie, Ichiro also helped the Seattle Mariners to tie the major league team record for wins in a season with 116. In each of his first ten seasons, Ichiro was an All-Star, won a Gold Glove Award, had 200 plus hits and hit .300 or better. Ichiro holds the single season hit record with 262 and also for a rookie with 242. He has led the league in hits 7 times, batting average twice, stolen bases once and games played 3 times. Ichiro never seems to get hurt, having only once in 11 seasons played less than 157 games! Ichiro is also known for one of the best outfield arms in baseball history. Even though he started his career in the MLB late, he is all but assured of getting into the Hall of Fame.


Ichiro Suzuki career stats: 1,749 GP, 7,456 AB, 2,428 H, 1,127 R, 95 HR, 605 RBI, 423 SB, .326 Avg, .370 OBP, .421 SLG, .791 OPS

I hope you like my list, though it is surprising how many on it are relief pitchers. Also, I didn’t realize how disproportional the numbers of Japanese players coming to the MLB are pitchers over positional players. In general, many people have a misconception that Japanese players come over to play here, have one or two good seasons and then go downhill because they have never played against such a high level of competition. But instead, since the average Japanese player is roughly age 32 in his first season, it only makes sense that in the last couple of seasons of their career they go downhill. Most players start to lose their effectiveness around their mid 30’s.

If you disagree with anyone on my list, or the order of my list, I would love to hear why!

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The Japanese Posting System, What Exactly Is It?

With the huge buzz that the Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish is creating, I started to wonder about this mysterious Japanese player posting system I kept reading about. It seemed like a secret that no one wanted to explain clearly and every article I read raised another question. Why is it only for Japanese players? What prompted this posting system in the first place? But the biggest one I had was simply this… what was to stop any team from just bidding an outrageous amount without any intention of actually signing the player? Wouldn’t this just prevent the Japanese player from coming to play in the majors without any penalty? (Since the secretive winning bid just gets returned to the team).


I have done additional reading plus investigating and, it turns out, the history line is actually quite interesting. Japan and the United States have had a long history of cultural and economic exchange, both well before and after World War 2. America brought over baseball to Japan somewhere between the 1850’s and the 1870’s, and it quickly became one of Japan’s favorite sports. Over the years many US teams have visited Japan and many Americans have played in the Japanese leagues. Japan’s national teams have done very well winning the World Baseball Classic in both 2006 and 2009.

But let’s get back to the history line… and fair warning dear reader, this is a lengthy article!

In 1964 a Japanese team (the Nankai Hawks) sent 3 young players over to play in the San Francisco Giant’s minor league system as part of an exchange student program. Such cultural exchanges were common during this time period between Japan and the US at all levels of society. The 3 Japanese players played for the Giants’ A level team and were only expected to gain some valuable experience before heading back to Japan at the end of the season. One of the Japanese players, though, was extremely impressive. Masanori Murakami, a 20 year old relief pitcher, was named the California League Rookie of the Year! He was a side armed left-handed reliever, something very rare in Major League Baseball. Minor league seasons usually end around the later part of August and the Giants decided to promote Murakami to the Majors as part of their September expanded roster. A move that was completely unexpected by his Japanese team, the Hawks. He thus became the first Japanese born player to appear in the MLB.

Murakami pitched very well during that final month impressing the Giants, so much so that they wanted to bring him back for the 1965 season. This was something the Nankai Hawks did not want any part of and demanded for his return to Japan. Murakami’s fast rise in America made him a quick baseball fan cult favorite and the Hawks expectations of the young pitcher suddenly were very high. This created a dispute between the Giants, who said they had properly followed the rules of bringing up a minor leaguer (by purchasing the minor league contract), and the Nankai Hawks, who said they still held the Japanese player’s rights. Since there were no proper rules or agreements in place, a stalemate arose between the two teams and the two leagues had to step in to mediate the dispute (the Japanese league is called the NPB, short for Nippon Professional Baseball). It was agreed upon that Murakami would play the 1965 season for the Giants and then return to his Japanese team.

This incident led to the two leagues (MLB and NPB) creating the 1967 “Workers Agreement”. Basically this agreement just amounted to the MLB acknowledging they would leave Japanese players alone and respect the Japanese team’s rights to their players. If a player did eventually go through the Japanese system properly, become a free agent after the necessary years and sign with a major league team, the Japanese team was still supposed to receive some vague compensation (I am assuming an agreed upon amount of money).

Japan as a society is geographically isolated and this has led them to certain cultural viewpoints. The Japanese are willing to delay rewards, put forth their best efforts for their teams (this also applies to family, company and country), and to avoid open conflict. Basically their culture frowned upon individuals seeking personal reward (at least openly) and this applied to their baseball players too. Going to play in America was to openly challenge the Japanese culture!

With this closed-door point of view in place, it took 30 years between appearances of the first Japanese born player Masanori Murakami until the second one, Hideo Nomo. Nomo dreamed of playing in the Majors against the world’s best players. He did not want to wait the extraordinary amount of time the Japanese league had in place to become a free agent (currently it is 9 years!). At the urging of his agent, Nomo used a loophole in the "working agreement" and voluntarily retired from the NPB in 1994. This allowed him to void his Japanese contract and sign on with a MLB team (he signed with the Dodgers in 1995). This infuriated the NPB and to make matters worse, the Dodgers did not offer Nomo’s old Japanese team any compensation.

In 1997, the San Diego Padres negotiated for the rights to pitcher Hideki Irabu from his Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. Irabu had made it clear to the Marines that he wanted to play in the US against the worlds best. Many of the other major league teams were very upset with not having been included and not having a chance to acquire Irabu. The Padres and Marines also did not actually consult Irabu nor his agent before finalizing the selling of his rights. Irabu made it clear he wasn’t happy and that under no circumstances would he ever show up to play for the Padres. Shortly after that, he actually demanded to be traded to the NY Yankees saying they were the only team he would play for! With both the players association (since Irabu wasn’t consulted) and the rest of the teams complaining, MLB’s executive council had no choice but to step in and judge the situation. They decided that since the old “worker’s agreement” wasn’t violated, nothing was done wrong and that the Padres legally owned his rights. By May though, the Padres caved in and traded Irabu to the Yankees (I think we all remember how that worked out).

Then we come to Alfonso Soriano in 1998. Soriano was not happy with his overall situation in Japan and more specifically with his team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He did not enjoy the regimented league and it’s intense practice schedule. He was also upset with the Carps who would not raise his salary above the league minimum $45 Thousand (he was seeking $180 Thousand). Initially, to no avail, Soriano and his agent tried to void his contract claiming he was a minor when he signed it. Then he followed Nomo’s lead and voluntarily retired from the NPB. This impelled the Carp to contact all the MLB teams and demand they did not negotiate with Soriano. NPB officials then contacted MLB officials to point out the new amendment they started including in all player contracts (thanks to Hideo Nomo's incident from 1994). This amendment gave the NPB teams the right to prohibit a player from signing any new contract anywhere else after voluntarily retiring. Since the MLB had never heard of this before, much less been consulted about it, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig ruled that Soriano was a valid free agent. (We all remember he signed with the New York Yankees and was eventually traded for AROD, right?)

These 3 separate incidents in the ‘90’s showed that the old 1967 “worker’s agreement” didn’t really work and something needed to be done before more friction between the two leagues occurred. So in December 1998, a new agreement was drafted and signed called the “posting system”. The newly designed “posting system” attempted to address every problem brought up by the three separate cases: Hideo Nomo, Hideki Irabu and Alfonso Soriano. This agreement has been in effect since then on a year-by-year basis between the two leagues. It only applies to players under contract with Japanese teams and only during their first 9 years in the NPB.

The Actual Posting System Process:
1)     Player on a Japanese team requests that their team post them so they may play in the major leagues.
2)     If the Japanese club agrees to do so, they can post the player anytime between November 1st and March 1st. The posting must include all medical records on the player. This posting is sent to both leagues Commissioner’s offices (the MLB and the NPB).
3)     The MLB Commissioner’s office notifies the major league clubs of the posting, and they then have 4 business days to submit a secret monetary bid.
4)     The MLB Commissioner will determine the winning bidder at the end of the 4 day bidding period (the highest bid), and notify the NPB commissioner.
5)     The NPB Commissioner then has 4 business days to notify the MLB Commissioner if the Japanese team has accepted the bid amount.
6)     If the highest bid amount is rejected, the Japanese team keeps the player and is prohibited from posting the player again until the following year.
7)     If the highest bid amount is accepted, The MLB Commissioner will notify the winning MLB team (the team that had the highest secret bid).
8)     That MLB team then has 30 days from the date of notification to come to a contract agreement with the player (either major league or minor league contract).
9)     If a contract agreement is reached with the player, the MLB team then has 5 business days to: notify the MLB Player’s association, the MLB Commissioner’s office and send the agreed upon payment amount to the Japanese team.
10) If a contract agreement cannot be reached with the player, no payment is sent and the player’s rights remain with the Japanese team. The Japanese team is prohibited from posting the player again until the following year.

The MLB Commissioner has complete authority while overseeing the bidding procedures. It is up to the MLB Commissioner to make sure the bidding process has not been compromised in any manner. He may take any action he deems appropriate in order to maintain the best interests of baseball. The MLB Commissioner has the power to even revoke the highest winning bid’s right to negotiate with the player, or void any contract agreed with the winning bidder, if the MLB Commissioner deems was the result of conduct that was inconsistent with the "posting system" agreement or the best interests of baseball. He also has the right to award the negotiating rights to the second highest bidder, subject to approval by the Japanese team.

Phew, that was a ton to digest! That last paragraph also answers my original fearful question, of what was to stop a team from just bidding any amount without any intention of signing the player. I suppose a team could still try and go though the motions in order to block a player from signing with all the other teams, but if the commissioner discovers the deception at least there are rules governing the next course of action.

So is this “posting system” actually working? Are both leagues happy with it? Unfortunately, there are continual complaints from players, player associations, teams and league officials from both leagues. But no one has yet to suggest a clear system that is an improvement. Since 2007 there has been sporadic discussions between the MLB and NPB to change the posting system, but nothing has obviously occurred.

Many players complain bitterly that they have next to zero input and are basically held hostage in the process. Some have even gone so far as to call it a “slave auction”. Players have no say about which team they are to negotiate with. Because the NPB team gets a huge monetary compensation, the process also usually results in the player getting a salary below the player’s true market value. I know the MLB teams would never bid so much money as they recently have if the bids were held against their luxury tax.

Officially, the Japanese Professional Baseball Players Association (JPBPA) was never consulted before the "posting system" was ratified. The NPB team owners never included them in any of the discussions. The JPBPA has continually voiced concerns over the "posting system" to no avail.

Many Japanese team owners and league officials loathe the system since it waters down the NPB talent pool. Something that is frowned upon by a majority of the Japanese baseball fans. Several NPB team owners have made it clear they will never post one of their players in a protest of the system.

After the November 2006 posting of Daisuke Matsuzaka (AKA Dice-K), most of the US media and many clubs were shocked and outraged over the winning bid amount from the Boston Red Sox. After that, the small market teams have claimed they are priced out of the posting system. Also, Dice-K’s agent was Scott Boras, who played a very dangerous game of chicken with the Red Sox and forced their hand. They paid Dice-K a salary much higher than they originally wanted to. Boras did not believe that the winning bid amount should affect the player’s contract.

This was followed shortly after by the posting of Kei Igawa, who was a complete failure at the major league level. This has helped scare off a good number of the MLB organizations that refuse to throw millions of dollars at players who aren’t major league proven. Since Matsuzaka and Igawa's postings, most MLB teams have been pushing to change the "posting system" towards a different system similar to free agency.

Since the posting system was set up in 1998, there have been 18 players who posted. Here is a break down of what has happened to them:

8 were signed to major league contacts
3 were signed to minor league contracts
3 were never bid upon and remained under control of the NPB team
1 was unable to reach a contract agreement

There are 3 postings that are still pending as we speak. Pitcher Yu Darvish (of course) with the Texas Rangers, Shortstop Hiroyuki with the New York Yankees and centerfielder Norichika Aoki with the Milwaukee Brewers.

The "posting system" is hardly a perfect one. It needs to be fixed, but how do you fix a system trying to bridge two cultures? As a fan of baseball, I would like to see the best players from around the world competing against each other. Maybe it’s only a fool's dream. But we need to figure something out and soon… one day we may have the same exact issues with Chinese players or some other country like India (where baseball’s popularity is slowly growing). But if a solution is finally found, a common ground that works for different cultures, then perhaps there really will one day be a true World Series. Wouldn't that be something?

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Trade – The Cincinnati Reds Acquire Mat Latos

The Cincinnati Reds were searching for another frontline starting pitcher. By shipping a bushel load of young prospects and future talent to the San Diego Padres, they may have accomplished their goal. Mat Latos is a 24 year old stud who has a great feel for pitching at a young age. In his 2 full seasons, Latos has shown he has what it takes to be a frontline pitcher. Latos did get off to a very slow start in 2011, but still came on strong to post another solid season (other than wins - the lowly Padres had the second worst record in the NL).


Mat Latos' 2010 season: 31 GS, 184.2 IP, 50 BB, 189 K, 14-10 record, 1.08 WHIP, 2.92 ERA, .217 Avg against, .601 OPS against
Mat Latos' 2011 season: 31 GS, 194.1 IP, 62 BB, 185 K, 9-14 record, 1.18 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, .233 Avg against, .655 OPS against

Latos has career groundball numbers of 44.7 percent versus 40.9 percent for fly balls. Something that is very important in the homer happy Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. San Diego’s Petco ballpark is a great place to pitch and many people think pitching there can skew a pitcher badly. But the Reds did their homework and saw that Latos has done very well on the road over the past two seasons: 35 GS, 1.15 WHIP and a 3.40 ERA.

Getting a young frontline starter, who isn’t a fly ball pitcher and is under team control for the next several years, was a very tall order to fill for the Reds. And they paid a hefty price to accomplish it. The expectations going into the 2011 season were very high for the Reds, after coming off of winning the division in 2010. But instead the Reds struggled mightily and the biggest reason was probably the failure of the starting rotation. The small market Reds couldn’t afford to sign a Mark Buehrle/CJ Wilson type, so they had to search for a team willing to part with a young number one (or number two) type starter.

The Reds had made it clear to the rest of baseball they were willing to trade some of their top prospects, including the highly touted first baseman Yonder Alonso. Alonso was expendable since they already have one of the top hitters in the game entrenched at first base, by the name of Joey Votto. The Reds game plan has been to build around pitching and Votto, who should be a perennial MVP candidate for years to come.

So what did the Padres actually get for their troubles? They had made it clear to the rest of baseball they would need a package of 4 or 5 prospects/players in return for him… but did they actually receive enough potential? Along with first baseman Yonder Alonso, the Reds shipped starter Edinson Volquez, catcher Yasmani Grandal and reliever Brad Boxberger to the San Diego Padres. Let’s break down the Padres haul…

The 28 year old Edison Volquez will immediately step into the Padres rotation replacing Latos. Volquez is a hard throwing righty who has continually battled injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) and major control issues. Though he has made appearances in 7 straight years, he has only one season of reaching 30 starts, so the Padres shouldn’t be expecting great things from him. That said, Volquez might greatly benefit from Petco Park and getting away from manager Dusty Baker (Baker is brutal on his young starters). He is also unfortunately remembered as being traded for Josh Hamilton, who went on to become an AL MVP.

Edison Volquez’s 2011 season: 20 GS, 108.2 IP, 65 BB, 104 K, 5-7 record, 1.57 WHIP, 5.71 ERA, .259 Avg against, .833 OPS against

The 24 year old Yonder Alonso is a stud lefty hitter that projects to be a solid major leaguer. Alonso is a former number one draft pick. Alonso’s path to the majors was blocked both by Joey Votto and a broken bone in his hand that robbed him of his power. While playing through the hand issue, he still put up solid numbers, though not the power numbers you normally expect from first base. This gives the Padres a pair of great prospects at first base, as they also have the power hitting 22 year old Anthony Rizzo. They could try and move one to left field, package one in a trade or have one start the season in the minors. A nice problem to have!

Yonder Alonso’s 2011 season:
2011 majors: 88 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, .330 Avg, .398 OBP, .545 SLG
2011 AAA: 409 AB, 12 HR, 56 RBI, .296 Avg, .374 OBP, .486 SLG

Anthony Rizzo’s 2011 season:
2011 majors: 128 AB, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .141 Avg, .281 OBP, .242 SLG
2011 AAA: 413 AB, 26 HR, 101 RBI, .331 Avg, .404 OBP, .652 SLG

The 23 year old Yasmani Grandal is a highly touted catching prospect who is probably still a year away from playing in the major leagues. Grandal is also a former number one draft pick. He showed some pop along with a solid .300 average at all 3 stops he made in the minors last year. But with only 4 games under his belt at AAA and unpolished catching skills, there is no reason to rush him. It still remains to be seen if Grandal will even stay a catcher. He has a cannon for an arm and calls a good game, but reports are that he has major problems actually holding onto the pitched ball. Not a very good issue for a major league catcher to have!

Yasmani Grandal’s 2011 season:
(56 games at A level, 45 at AA, 4 at AAA)
2011 combined: 374 AB, 14 HR, 68 RBI, .305 Avg, .401 OBP, .500 SLG

The 23 year old Brad Boxberger is a power pitching reliever who might one day become the Padres closer. He has a good chance of making his way onto the team out of spring training. Boxberger (I love that name!) has 2 well above average pitches with a fastball and curve, but he needs to develop a third pitch to keep major leaguers honest. Boxberger split his time in 2011 between the AA and AAA levels. And he simply dominated the AA batters!

Brad Boxberger's 2011 season:
2011 AAA: 25 G, 27.2 IP, 15 BB, 36 K, 7 Saves, 1.12 WHIP, 2.93 ERA
2011 AA: 30 G, 34.1 IP, 13 BB, 57 K, 4 Saves, 0.85 WHIP, 1.31 ERA

If you are going to trade a top young pitcher you better be happy with what you receive back. I have to believe the Padres are very happy with what they acquired. Getting 3 solid prospects and an experienced major league pitcher under the age of 30 has to be evaluated as a job well done by the organization. The San Diego Padres are stockpiling youngsters and rebuilding their team on the cheap. This trade definitely helps them with those goals.

As for the Cincinnati Reds, adding Mat Latos to their projected rotation really deepens it. Johnny Cueto has developed into an ace, while Mike Leake and Homer Bailey are improving. The Reds would love for Aroldis Chapman to get his control issues worked out (41 BB in 50 IP) and push his way into the rotation, since his stuff is electric. But unless they add more depth to their bullpen before spring training, chances are Chapman will become a setup man or closer for them (sometimes it is easier to hide a pitcher’s control issues as a reliever).

Cincinnati’s projected 2012 starting rotation:
1) Johnny Cueto (R), age 25
2) Mat Latos (R), age 24
3) Bronson Arroyo (R), age 34
4) Mike Leake (R), age 24

Homer Bailey (R), age 25
Aroldis Chapman (L), age 23
Travis Wood (L), age 24

I always like a trade that benefits both teams. Sadly, such trades occur rarely anymore. Most trades are one sided and usually done for money dumping reasons. All in all this trade looks like it will help both teams and I heartily approve!

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Rounding The Bases – Week Ending 12/18/11

This busy week included several signings, a couple of trades and some courtroom news. Here are a few of the smaller but tastier bits of baseball news and activity over the past week:

Labor Agreement News:

The MLB owners unanimously approved and officially ratified the new 5 year collective bargaining agreement. This was hardly a surprise, but it still warms the baseball nerd’s heart to know we have 5 more years of labor peace to look forward to. The Player’s Union had already done the same a couple of weeks ago.

Kangaroo Court:

Ryan Braun has become embattled with the leaked news he may have failed a drug test sometime in October. There are a million; articles, blog posts, comments, and sports shows discussing it… while I am trying my best not to, since we really do not know enough yet. The news could not have come at a worse time for baseball, since so many things were going right. Baseball was coming off of a fantastic post-season and having a great off-season. This is just the kind of negative news that can knock out the good will the game is basking in with its fans. Braun has appealed the banning of the 50 games that comes with the first time testing positive. I really hope that Braun is able to somehow be the first MLB player to prove his innocence over a failed drug test.

After a process which seems like it’s taking forever (some 8 years so far), Barry Bonds was finally found guilty of obstruction charges. His sentence was a whopping 30 days to be served at home, along with 2 years probation, 250 hours of community service and finally, a $4 thousand dollar fine (ouch, that hurts!). Bonds, of course, is appealing this very lenient verdict and who knows when, if ever at this rate, he will actually serve any time.

Arbitration News:

Dallas Braden and the Oakland A’s agreed to a one year deal avoiding arbitration. The base salary was announced as $3.35 million with plenty of performance bonuses. The infamous lefty is known for his perfect game and his flare up with AROD (AROD crossed the pitching rubber when he was on his way to the dugout). The 28 year old Dallas only pitched in 3 games last year and is coming off shoulder surgery in his pitching shoulder.

Japanese Player Postings:

Yu Darvish decided to ask his Japanese team to post him so he can play in the majors. The secret bids were all handed in by Wednesday’s deadline. The rumors are that several teams put in huge bids of upwards to $60 million! Just for the privilege of negotiating with Darvish, to try and sign him to a contract. All we really know is that at least one bid was definitely submitted. The Japanese team that controls Darvish (The Hokkaido Nippon Fighters for those keeping track at home) has until Tuesday to decide if they will accept the bid. If they do accept it, the major league team with the winning bid will have a 30 day window to negotiate a contract with Darvish. If a contract cannot be worked out, the Japanese team will return the winning bid. Yu Darvish is considered the best pitcher in Japan. Last year he went 18-6, with 276 K’s and a 1.44 ERA. At just 25 years old and standing a solid 6 foot 5, Darvish looks ready to succeed in the USA!

The Milwaukee Brewers have won the rights to negotiate with Norichika Aoki, a speedy centerfielder who plays for the Japanese team the Yakult Swallows. The Brewers winning bid was reported to be $2.5 million dollars. The Brewers now have a 30 day window to come to a contract agreement with 29 year old Aoki. It does seem weird, with the Brewers already having two centerfielders on their roster, that they would want to sign a third one. They already have Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan. But with the possibility of Ryan Braun losing 50 games to a suspension, perhaps Aoki will help fill that void? Aoki is the prototype gold glove caliber centerfielder who leads off, is a slap hitter, and a speedster. He has led his league in batting average 3 times and is a 6 time gold glover in his 7 full seasons while in Japan.

Free Agent Signings:

Aramis Ramirez signed a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers for 3 years and a guaranteed $36 million total. There is also an option year for an additional $10 mil. Aramis is a great signing, as he is a significant upgrade over the Brewers 3rdbase output from last year. Everyone understands you can’t easily replace a Prince Fielder easily, but you can upgrade at multiple positions to try and reduce the lose. So far the Brewers have done a solid job by signing Alex Gonzalez at shortstop and Aramis Ramirez at 3rd base. Both are entering their 34th year of age but bring stability and solid power. Aramis in particular is a solid run producer, and has been for some time now. Aramis has batted .300 6 times, has hit 25 plus homers 9 times and driven in 90 plus RBI’s eight times. His range at third has withered but his hands and arm are still very capable. He can also play firstbase, which helps the Brewers if they decide to bring up their young 3rdbase prospect Taylor Green.

Dontrelle Willis signed a one year, $1 million dollar deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. There are also several performance bonuses in the contract. The well traveled, soon to be 30 year old lefty, has never been able to recapture his early success. Willis’ first 3 years were excellent and many people felt he would be one of the most dominant starters in the game (his 2005 season is one for the ages). But his career took a quick downward spiral and he has never been able to regain any of his early glory. Obviously the Phillies are not expecting anything great, as Willis hasn’t had a wining season nor an ERA below 5.00 in his past 5 seasons. The Phillies will be his 5th team in 6 years.

Kelly Shoppach agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox for a 1 year, $1.35 million dollar contract. The 31 year old Shoppach will be the backup catcher for Boston, behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia. His signing just about guarantees that Jason Varitek’s career in Boston is over. Shoppach is known for his defense and is definitely is a weak offensive player. He batted an awful .176 last year for Tampa Bay and has not hit above .214 the past 3 years. Weirdly, he led the American League in being hit by pitches in 2009 with 18.

Josh Willingham has agreed to a 3 year contract with Minnesota Twins for $21 million in total. Josh is a 32 year old slugging OF who has played for 3 previous teams over his 8 year career. He is a career .262 hitter with a solid .361 OBP and .475 SLG. Last year he hit .246 with 29 HR and 98 RBI for the Oakland Athletics. Willingham’s signing almost certainly means the Twins will not bring back either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel. Both have only played in the majors with the Twins.

Michael Cuddyer has come to terms with the Colorado Rockies to a 3 year deal worth a reported $31.5 million total. As soon as the Twins signed Josh Willingham you had a feeling Cuddyer would follow suit very quickly (and Jason Kubel should also find a home shortly). The 32 year old Cuddyer has been a mainstay for the Twins, having played there the past 11 seasons. He is coming off of a solid season with a .284 Avg, 20 HR and 70 RBI and will be a great 3rd OF. Cuddyer also brings some position flexibility for the Rockies since he can also play 1st, 2nd and 3rd base. The Rockies are hoping his veteran presence will have a positive impact in their clubhouse, after a very disappointing 2011 season for the team.

Trade Talks:

The Milwaukee Brewers shipped 3rd baseman Casey McGehee to the Pittsburgh Pirates for reliever Jose Veras. As soon as the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez,  McGehee could have started packing his bags. McGehee has had a couple of solid years in 2009 and 2010, but last year everything fell apart for him. He was dreadful on defense and had the second lowest OPS for all qualifying batters in the Majors! I am not sure why the small market Pirates would want him since the 29 year old McGehee will probably get $5 mil in salary. The 31 year old Veras pitched solidly in 79 games last year, going 2-4 with 27 holds (good enough for 5th in the NL). He also had 79 K’s in 71 innings, a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.80 ERA.

The Boston Red Sox acquired a possible closer by shipping two players to the Houston Astros for Mark Melancon. The players the Red Sox gave up are infielder Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland. Melancon is a 26 year old who saved 20 games for the Astros last year. The Red Sox were searching for a replacement closer since Jonathan Papelbon bailed via free agency. And, since the new labor agreement outlined the new Luxury Tax levels through 2015, there was speculation that they would seek cheaper options via trade versus spending big money on a free agent. After all, there was plenty of time for them to sign a Ryan Madson type. 2011 was Melancon’s first full season and he pitched very well; 74.1 IP, 66 K, 8-4 record, 20 saves, 3 holds, 1.22 WHIP and 2.78 ERA. The 27 year old Jed Lowrie has shown a few flashes, but mostly has been the Red Sox’ utility infielder. He is a solid defender, with a chance to be a line drive hitter that produces in Houston. The 25 year old Kyke Weiland has barely played in the majors (7 games for the Sox last year), but he looks like he can be a productive number 3 starter based on his minor league/college stats. There is a chance this could turn out to be a great trade for the Astros!

It turns out this was a very interesting week… see you guys for next week’s edition of ROUNDING THE BASES!