2012 Hall Of Fame Predictions

This Monday the Hall of Fame (HOF) will announce the results for the 2012 class voting. Every year the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) votes by secret ballot on recently retired players. Players have to have been retired (or inactive) for 5 years, or they had to have received at least a 5 percent mark from the previous year’s vote. If a player receives at least 75 percent of the votes then they are elected in the Hall of Fame. A player who doesn’t get the 75 percent needed, but at least 5 percent to be considered the following year, can not be on the ballot for more than 15 years. So in this year’s class, all eligible players would have to been active from 1992 onwards, but not active after 2007. All 10-year members of the BBWAA are eligible to send in a ballot, but they can only vote for up to 10 candidates maximum each year.

I personally have never been too keen on the Hall of Fame. It is more of a baseball history museum in my eyes than anything else. I know many people who get very emotional and passionate about the HOF when discussing it. And that is understandable. When you watch your favorite player over their career you feel a special bond with them, so much so that you want them to be enshrined in the HOF. The Hall means different things to different people, so it’s hard to argue over it and I never understood people who disparage it.

Basically, to me, it has become the “Hall of Very Good Players” and every year the same arguments seem to be repeated over whom should and shouldn’t be included. The main problem is, no matter what is ever done to decide who should qualify to go in, there will ALWAYS be borderline players. Those players who are so close that they almost deserve to be included. And if you decide to include one borderline player, then the very next closest player becomes the new borderline player. It’s like a bad game of dominos! And I think we have crossed many borderlines over the years, and once you cross them there is no going back.

Unfortunately, some players use the HOF as a type of validation for their careers. Something that a single season’s award or team’s championship can’t bring them since getting into the HOF establishes the player’s overall greatness. And for many borderline players (and their family) it can be a wrenching experience to not be voted in. Ron Santo, for example, was finally admitted to the HOF, but a year after he passed away. His family and many fans were greatly disturbed by that.

With all this being said, here are a few of the factors that people are using to (subjectively) measure (and debate) if a player belongs in the HOF;

Overall greatness: how long a player was considered the top player in the game (or close to the top) or at least the top player at their position.

Positional greatness: the player as compared to other players at the same position (two levels of this: all historical players or just contemporaries).

Seasonal achievements: How many times was the player MVP, Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove winner, leader of the league in a major statistical category, Get 200 hits, 100 RBI’s, etc.

Historical achievements: Did the player get 3,000 hits, 500 homeruns, 300 wins, 400 saves, batting average .300, finish in the top 25 career total of a major statistical category, etc.

Post-season achievements: How many World Series rings, post-season awards, overall post-season numbers, etc.

Player morality: Did the player ever cheat, use drugs, bet on sports, treat the game with respect, etc

Here are the top 15 players up for consideration this year (in my opinion). There are another 13 or so players on the ballot but they don’t have a legitimate chance to make it. I separated the players listed below into two lists; those who I think deserve to eventually make it into the HOF and those that don’t. Below the list I have some comments and opinions on players.

Those that I think belong in the Hall of Fame:

Barry Larkin

Jeff Bagwell

Tim Raines

Larry Walker

Lee Smith

Fred McGriff

Those that I don’t think belong:

Jack Morris

Edgar Martinez

Alan Trammell

Mark McGwire

Don Mattingly

Rafael Palmeiro

Dale Murphy

Bernie Williams

Juan Gonzalez

In order of those I think should be in:

The two players who I definitely think should be voted in this year are Barry Larkin and Jeff Bagwell (please see below).

Tim Raines is someone who should already be in the HOF. He was basically the second best leadoff hitter of all time, but had the misfortune of playing at the same time as the greatest leadoff hitter, Rickie Henderson. Raines (the Rock) was a 7 time All-Star who finished 5^th in total career stolen bases with 808. And also in the top 5 all-time in steal percentage!

Larry Walker has never tested positive for anything, but has been the subject of non-stop rumors during his career. Walker is also greatly affected by his home/road splits attributed to his years playing with the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field, one of the most friendly hitter's parks. I still think his lifetime numbers are too good to ignore. Walker was the complete package with amazing defense (7 Gold gloves), a rocket for a right fielder’s arm (had 30 assists one year!), stole a base when needed and was a magician with the bat (lifetime .313 Avg, .400 OBP, .565 SLG).

Lee Smith was a dominating closer, though he was not always on the elite yearly level some say he should be in order to enter the HOF. Smith was a 7 time All-Star and 3 time Rolaids Relief winner. His 478 saves are 3^rd all time. Smith finished with a career 3.03 ERA and also finished 15^th all-time for K’s per 9 innings (with 8.73).

Fred McGriff deserves to be in the HOF but is hurt by his career overlapping the steroid era, where he is unfairly compared to many of the powerhouse first basemen. McGriff (the Crime Dog!) was a great consistent power hitter who was also considered clutch, driving in 100 RBI’s 8 times in his career. McGriff finished 26^th all-time for homers, 41^st all-time for walks (1,305), 42^nd all-time for RBI’s and 48^th all-time for Total bases (4,458).

Barry Larkin, Short Stop (1986 – 2004):

I loved watching Larking play! He was the complete package in everyway. I am actually surprised he was not elected in his first couple of years of eligibility (this will be his 3^rd year). He would have won many more Gold Gloves; he was fantastic on defense, except he had the misfortune of playing at the same time as Ozzie Smith, arguably the best fielding shortstop of all time. Though he never led the league in an offensive category (he did in defensive ones), he was often in the top 5 or ten in many of them. In my opinion, Larkin helped usher in the golden age of shortstops (along with Cal Ripken in the AL), he was the first short stop to have a 30/30 season (30 HR and 30 SB). His team, the Cincinnati Reds, won the World Championship in 1990.

19 seasons, 3 time Gold Glove winner, 12 time All-Star, 1993 Roberto Clemente Award winner, 1994 Lou Gehrig Memorial Award winner, 1995 NL MVP, 9 time Silver Slugger winner

Lifetime: 2,180 Games played, 2,340 hits, 1,329 R, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, .295 Avg, .815 OPS,

Jeff Bagwell, First Baseman (1991 – 2005):

Bagwell (Bags as he was affectionately nicknamed) never tested positive for anything, but has been the subject of non-stop rumors during his career. He was one of the most feared hitters in the game, and not just for power. Bags had prodigious slugging and on base numbers all throughout his career. His batting eye was arguably on par with Wade Boggs! And he was also one of the best all around players in history for his position. Bags could steal a key base and played excellent defense. He also finished 28^th all-time for walks (1,401 in 15 years!) and 64^th all-time for doubles (488). I think that it’s unfair that the writers are holding the steroid era against Bagwell despite there never having been a single connection to him.

15 seasons, 1991 NL Rookie of the Year Award, 1994 Gold Glove winner, 4 time All-Star, 1994 NL MVP, 3 time Silver Slugger winner,

Led league in; Games played 4 times, Runs 3 times, Doubles 1 time, RBI 1 time, BB 1 time, slugging 1 time, OPS 1 time, Hit by pitch 1 time, Extra base hits 1 time, Times on base 3 times

Lifetime: 2,150 Games played, 2,314 hits, 1,517 R, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SB, .297 Avg, .948 OPS

Some quick notes on a few of the players who shouldn’t be in:

Jack Morris:

Morris is the epitome of someone who is on the borderline for getting into the HOF. He became that pitcher once Bert Blyleven was admitted last year. I personally think he was a solid pitcher, but just not quite good enough for what the Hall should be. His career stats were good, not great, but he pitched for 4 World Series winners and pitched for a very long time (which is similar to what eventual got Blyleven in).

Alan Trammell:

Trammell had some great years (including the 1984 AL MVP), and was a solid player, but he had too many mediocre years and shouldn’t be rewarded for them, in my opinion. And I loved watching Trammell play, as he was a gamer!

Edgar Martinez:

While he has some very good years his first 8 seasons, it was his next 7 years afterwards (starting in 1995) that he hit on a completely different level. With 7 (maybe 8) years out of 18 that are definitely at an elite level, at least hitting-wise, I have to hold it against Martinez that he could only be a designated hitter and not play the field. Also, with so few true “designated hitters” (players playing more than half their career games as a DH) you can’t properly compare him to others of his time period.

Juan Gonzalez:

Juan Gonzalez definitely has great numbers, but Gonzalez was specifically pointed out in Jose Canseco’s infamous book, which described the prevalent usage of steroids and PED’s (performance enhancing drugs) in baseball. Gonzalez was also listed in the Mitchell Report, another infamous document that was supposed to be kept secret, but was leaked. With both occurrences I am convinced that he does not belong in the HOF.

Rafael Palmeiro:

Palmeiro tested positive for a steroid in 2005, just a few short months after testifying in front of a Congress panel denying any use or knowledge of steroid users. Timing is the spice of life! No HOF for you!

Mark McGwire:

McGwire had multiple run-ins with reporters over the years about his rumored usage of steroids, and over other supplements found in his locker. In 2010 McGwire finally admitted to having used steroids during his career. Sorry Mark, no HOF for you buddy. This is one really sad case because we’ll never know for sure if he was good enough to get in without using.

Don Mattingly/Dale Murphy/Bernie Williams:

These 3 players all had great moments, no doubt. But they didn’t quite do enough over their careers for me to believe they belong in the Hall. Mattingly, especially, is a sad case since it was a back injury that slowed him up the second part of his career. Also, Bernie is a special case for some since he had so many post-season at bats but I don’t think that’s enough to overcome his very solid, but not great, career.

I can see 2 players making it in this year (most years 1 to 3 players make it in). We’ll find out who makes it into the HOF this time on Monday afternoon, and I am positive Barry Larkin will be one of them. I think Jeff Bagwell should be the second one, but with the writer’s you never know how they will vote. We’ll probably see a bunch of these same names again next year, along with a new crop of eligibles… it will be interesting to see how the BBWAA voters handle the steroid era players.