(OK, I promise no more “Yu” puns the rest of the article!)
It took just about every minute of the 30 day deadline the Texas Rangers had to finalize a deal with Japanese Pitcher Yu Darvish. The Rangers signed Darvish to a 6 year deal worth $56 million guaranteed with additional incentives. This signing means the Rangers will send their $51.7 million posting fee to the Hokkaido Nippon Fighters, bringing the actual guaranteed total they are paying for Yu to $107.7 mil before any incentives kick in! That breaks down to $17.95 mil a season, so it’s obvious the Rangers are confident he will produce.
I know that figure of $17.95 million doesn’t specifically count as his yearly salary (and it probably will end up being a different figure at some point), but for fun let’s see where it would land on the 2012 pitcher’s salary list.
2012 Top Nine Pitcher’s Salaries:
1) Johan Santana $24 mil
2) CC Sabathia $23 mil
3) Cliff Lee $21.5 mil
4) Justin Verlander $20 mil
5) Roy Halladay $20 mil
6) Barry Zito $19 mil
7) Carlos Zambrano $18 mil
Yu Darvish $17.95 mil
8) Jake Peavy $17 mil
9) AJ Burnett $16.5 mil
Oh man… how many people would take Darvish right now over Zito, Zambrano, Peavy or Burnett? OK, you can all put your hands down! I know it’s unanimous, we all agree, there are some ridiculously stupid contracts out there.
With that said, do the Rangers know what they are doing? Well, they were the only organization that consistently scouted Darvish over the past 5 years. They also stepped up the scouting the past two seasons and also developed a direct relationship with Darvish and his family. The Rangers made sure Darvish understood that if he ever wanted to come to America, they really wanted him. In 2011 they had 12 different members of their organization go to Japan to watch him in action. It sounds like the Rangers were confident about him as a person and a player. So much so that they were willing to let their current ace CJ Wilson depart with the idea that they would replace him with Darvish all along. Many will say this was risky, but the Rangers are convinced of the reward. And it's hard to bet against Nolan Ryan recognizing pitching greatness!
Many will also say that paying that much for a player who has never pitched an inning in the majors is insanity, but Darvish has already been in involved many top-notch pressure situations. He has pitched in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, pitched for the 2009 World Baseball Classic Japanese Championship team and three different pennant-winning teams in Japan.
So what motivated Darvish to come to the US and play here? If he is to be believed, he says it’s the simple desire to be the best and beat the best in the world. Darvish has nothing left to prove in Japan, and even at such a young age he realizes he needs new challenges. As he just stated recently in an interview “I want to become the kind of pitcher that will make people say ‘Darvish is the No. 1 pitcher in the world’.” Pretty lofty goal, but he does have a chance to achieve it. Perhaps realistically a small chance, but still a chance!
Yu is only 25 years old and has already had 7 seasons in the Japanese league under his belt. His numbers are out of sight, so much so that comparing him to any other Japanese pitcher that has come over to the Majors is just plain silly. Many baseball people like to point to Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsuzaka (Dice-K) as examples of pitchers who dominated in Japan, but were ultimately not close to being an Ace here in the States. And they did dominate in Japan, don’t get me wrong, and both also had some really good seasons here too. But Yu is another level above those two.
Nomo had erratic mechanics that he couldn’t always repeat, while Dice-K had several different issues: injuries, confidence and lack of faith in his stuff, but both pitchers had the same result. Both pitchers could become uncontrollably wild and walk just about every batter they faced. And once their mechanics were off they were very hard to correct. Darvish has shown that his mechanics are very smooth and has what several scouts describe as a near flawless delivery. Then again we once heard the same exact thing about another phenom fireballer named Mark Prior and he would get hurt every year like clockwork.
If we looked at their Japanese stats as if all three players were prospects pitching in triple-A here in the States, everyone would agree Yu is going to be an Ace hands down. While Nomo and Dice-K both will probably be a number 2 or 3 type pitcher with a chance to develop into an Ace.
Yu Darvish’s average season over the last 5 years in Japan, ages 20-24 (ignoring his first two seasons at ages 18 and 19):
25 starts, 15 Wins, 10 CG, 205 IP, 138 Hits, 8 HR, 44 BB (1.9 per 9 innings), 217 K (9.5 per 9 innings), 0.89 WHIP, 1.72 ERA, .192 Avg against
Not too shabby! Darvish’s worst ERA in the past 5 years (1.88) is lower than Nomo’s or Dice-K’s best ever. Darvish’s walks to strikeout ratios are miles better than Nomo’s or Dice-K’s. Darvish is also a physical specimen who, unlike many of the pitchers from Japan, is a gym rat. No owner will ever be calling him a fat toad, that’s for sure! When Darvish made his debut as an 18 year old in the Japanese league, he weighed all of 175 pounds. Well, at 25, he is up to 225 pounds now.
How quick will he be an ace? That is the question in my mind. Not if, but when. You have to be fair with Darvish, though. I think his first year will be a huge learning curve experience for him. Not just new batters, but new parks, new catchers, a new ball, new umpires, new manager who handles pitchers differently from anything he has ever experienced before, new home, new language, new food, new culture… and all this from a 25 year old. You have to give the kid several months, maybe even his first full year to get his bearings. How long would it take you to adapt?
But how long will the Texas Ranger fans actually give him? When does he need to show some signs of dominance? I predict he gets stronger as the year goes on and that he wins 13 or 14 games for the Rangers. But with some early bumps, bumps that make many people think he wasn’t worth the fuss. Bumps that will make some people stop watching him, but I will be watching him closely. And If the Rangers make the playoffs (and they really should) then the whole nation will be closely watching him too. October is where you really see what a pitcher has! I can hardly wait!
Just like the young fireballer prospect that comes up from the minors, I am very excited to see Darvish pitch! It’s on the same level as a Stephen Strasburg or a Matt Moore. Young fireball pitchers who have yet to pitch a full season in the majors, but still feel like they have unlimited potential. There is something just so tantalizing about those young fireballers. They have yet to throw a stinker, a really bad game. They have yet to disappoint us, to become an AJ Burnett or John Lackey… or any of a number of pitchers who have disappointed us.
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