Pole Results as voted on by you!

Pole Results as voted on by you!
Team that will have the worst record in 2012: Houston Astros (67%)
Second player that should have been voted into the HOF in 2012: Jeff Bagwell (75%)

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The NY Yankees Build A Rotation

After a fairly quiet off-season, the New York Yankees suddenly awoke to make two major moves in one day. Of all days, it was a Friday the 13th to boot! Both moves were designed to deepen and strengthen their starting rotation, arguably the most unstable part of the team. Some people might say the Yankees made a huge move re-signing CC Sabathia earlier in the post-season, but I think that was a forgone conclusion, just a formality really. He wasn’t actually going anywhere else. But the two separate moves just made by the Yankees were serious decisions that were designed to deepen their starting rotation.

The first move was a trade with the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees received starting pitcher Michael Pineda and minor league pitcher Jose Campos for their highly touted catching prospect Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi. The second move was the signing of Hiroki Kuroda, a 36 year old Japanese pitcher, to a one year deal worth $10 million base with additional incentives.

Let’s break down each move…

The Yankees have long been discussing possibilities with the Seattle Mariners, but many baseball people always assumed it was Felix Hernandez they were targeting. And that probably has been the case, but the Mariners have rebuffed all teams and their inquiries regarding King Felix. So that led the Yankees to inquire about the young Pineda instead…
Last year the soon to be 23 year old Pineda burst onto the scene. The 6 foot 7 giant had an incredible first half of the season, winning 8 games before the All-Star game with a 3.03 ERA, and an average against below .200! But the rookie fireballer hit a few bumps the second half of the season and wasn’t the same pitcher, only winning 1 game and having an ERA over 5. Although Pineda did keep up his strong strikeout per inning pace.

A rookie fading the 2nd half of a season is nothing new. Many times when the league sees a pitcher for the second and third time, the league starts to figure the pitcher out. Also, the major league season is much longer than any minor league or amateur league, so fatigue is always normal for younger players who aren’t used to the long grind. The Yankees, obviously, feel Pineda’s going to get better and will be a big part of the team’s future success.

The Yankees also received Jose Campos, a 19 year old blue chip prospect who hasn’t pitched higher than single-A. While Campos had a great 2011 year in his 14 starts, (85 K’s in 81 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 2.32 ERA) the Yankees don’t think highly enough to place him on their 40 man roster quite just yet. It is too easy to get overly excited about a kid who can regularly throw his fastball 95 mph. There is a long way to go between single-A and the majors!

The Yankees, in return, traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners. The Mariners had a very rough 2011 season (and that is being kind). Among many of their issues was a record breaking lowest average ever (.233) for an AL team during the designated hitter era (the DH started in 1973). They are hoping Montero keeps developing offensively as the Mariners finished last in the majors in batting average, slugging percentage (.348) and runs scored (556). I mean, really… a team slugging of .348?! Oh man that is seriously odious…
By moving Jesus Montero, the Yankees have freed up their DH slot which allows them to rotate AROD, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Andrew Jones and anyone else they feel needs to have a “half day off”. Something that is very important for their aging hitters, especially Alex Rodriguez and his ailing hip. The Yankees also had serious doubts Montero was ever going to be defensively able to catch in the majors. With his hitting there is no doubt, and because of that alone the Mariners are very happy (in Montero’s limited 61 at bats last year, he had an amazing .996 OPS). The Yankees have excellent depth at catching with Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli, and the young trio Austin Romine (23), Gary Sanchez (19) and JR Murphy (20).

With Montero, the Mariners also received solid value in Noesi, a 24 year old major league ready pitcher. Noesi was obviously not going to get any major league playing time this year with the crowded Yankees staff, so he was more than expendable for them. Plus, the Yankees don’t feel Noesi has what it takes to be a more than an average pitcher at best. Noesi has a good chance of making the Mariners rotation, so we will see in a year or two if the Yankees are right about him. I, personally, liked what I saw of Noesi and think he would make a great long reliever or setup man instead of a starting pitcher.

Hiroki Kuroda’s signing adds nice veteran depth to the rotation for the coming year. With only a 1 year deal the Yankees aren’t worried about Kuroda being 36 years old. All they care about was how he did last year and he was very solid. Kuroda won 13 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers while throwing 202 innings. He also had 161 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 3.07. His career WHIP of 1.19 is very solid indeed! This also allows the development of Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, the two young minor league pitchers of the future. Very importantly, they can continue their growth in 2012 without any emergency call-ups to the big league club.
With the Yankees already having CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova there is obviously going to be battle over who is in the rotation this coming year. With 5 spots available for 7 starters it means there will be a serious competition this spring. And this is a good thing! Competition can only be healthy; nothing should be a forgone conclusion. Only Sabathia and Kuroda should have guaranteed rotation spots.

I predict Nova, Pineda and Hughes are the favorites to win the other spots in spring training, though the competition should be fierce. Burnett is proud and he will not go quietly. Garcia didn’t sign with any other expectation but to be included in the starting rotation. Obviously, if Garcia knew what the Yankees would do later on down the road, he would never have signed with them. I think there is a chance that, if it happens, Burnett could make a very solid long relief man. Not exactly what the Yankees wanted for their remaining $33 mil on Burnett’s contract, but it’s better than getting nothing. Also, Hughes has already shown he can be an excellent set up man, but at his age you still want to give him every opportunity to get it together as a starting pitcher.

If I had to pick a starting rotation, here is my choice (along with their 2011 stats):

1) CC Sabathia, (L) Age 31, 6 foot 7, 290lbs
33 GS, 19 wins, 237.1 IP, 61 BB, 230 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.00 ERA
2) Ivan Nova (R) Age 25, 6 foot 4, 225lbs
27 GS, 16 wins, 165.1 IP, 57 BB, 98 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.70 ERA
3) Micheal Pineda (R) Age 23, 6 foot 7, 260lbs (for the Mariners)
28 GS, 9 wins, 171 IP, 55 BB, 173 K, 1.10 WHIP, 3.74 ERA
4) Hiroki Huroda (R) Age 36, 6 foot 1, 190lbs (for the Dodgers)
32 GS, 13 wins, 202 IP, 49 BB, 161 K, 1.21 WHIP, 3.07 ERA
5) Phil Hughes (R) Age 25, 6 foot 5, 240lbs
14 GS, 5 wins, 74.2 IP, 27 BB, 47 K, 1.49 WHIP, 5.79 ERA

Here are the remaining Yankee possible starters stats:
AJ Burnett (R) Age 35, 6 foot 4, 230lbs
32 GS, 11 wins, 190.1 IP, 83 BB, 173 K, 1.43 WHIP, 5.15 ERA
Freddy Garcia (R) Age 35, 6 foot 4, 250lbs
25 GS, 12 wins, 146.2 IP, 45 BB, 96 K, 1.34 WHIP, 3.62 ERA
Dellin Batances (R) Age 23, 6 foot 8, 260lbs (AA and AAA combined)
25 GS, 4 wins, 126.1 IP, 70 BB, 142 K, 1.36 WHIP, 3.70 ERA
Manny Banuelos (L) Age 20, 5 foot 11, 155lbs (AA and AAA combined)
27 GS, 6 wins, 129.2 IP, 71 BB, 125 K, 1.55 WHIP, 3.75 ERA

If there is one thing that jumps out at me immediately, it’s just how physically LARGE this staff is. Banuelos had better learn to move fast to get any of the pre-game buffet spread! And if it wasn’t enough, even the young Jose Campos is 6 foot 4.

But seriously, I don’t necessarily see a true number 2 pitcher to follow CC jump out at me. Nova and Pineda could both be capable and may develop to be aces in the next few years. But instead of a true number 2 for the 2012 season, the Yankees have an amazingly deep staff of number 3’s. And, of course, they have all season to see who steps up and will become their all-important second starter in the playoffs.

The next thing I notice is just how young the Yankees staff has become! To think that the Yankees could have such a strong pitching staff that might even get better as they gain experience is scary. Scary for the rest of the league that is. One can still envision the Yankees signing another ace pitcher over the next couple of years. A Matt Cain or Cole Hamels type. Especially when Burnett comes off the books.

These two moves also make sense for another reason. One thing most people don’t realize, but I have tried to point out several times recently, is that the Yankees are serious about ducking under the Luxury Tax threshold in the next couple of years. The Luxury Tax is cumulative, that is, it’s percentage increases exponentially for teams as they go over the threshold each consecutive year. Since the inception of the Luxury Tax system in 2003, the Yankees have gone over the threshold each and every time.

Right now, their current percentage is roughly around an incredible 40 percent. Basically, that means they are really paying $14 million to have Kuroda pitch for them instead of $10 million. But if the team payroll can duck under the threshold for one year, it resets. The Luxury Tax threshold for 2012 and 2013 is $178 million. It increases to $189 starting in 2014, which is the year I believe the Yankees are targeting to slip under. That is the year Burnett and Rafael Soriano come off the books and you have to believe that Mariano Rivera will have retired by then (man will that be a sad day!).

I love trades like this that can help both teams. I believe the Yankees made a couple of solid moves and if they weren’t the clear favorites to win the AL East division before, they certainly are now. I think Brian Cashman (the Yankees’ general manager) has done a great job improving the depth of the staff while keeping with the plan of going below the Luxury Tax threshold. A balancing act that he and the Yankees’ organization isn’t used to!

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