I am utterly confused by the Chicago White Sox and the mess they are currently in. It seems their General Manager Kenny Williams is stuck in an endless indecision loop. This article is a sibling of my article on the San Diego Padres, where I am not sure which direction their organization is trying to go. Are they rebuilding or trying to compete in 2012? Do the White Sox really believe they can do both? The White Sox Organization recently has been telling the fans and media that they are trying to do just that! Are they just plain mad or will they be mad geniuses?
Let’s go through the time line for the White Sox for the past year, and try to make sense of some of their decisions:
Last year the White Sox went a very disappointing 79 – 83, especially considering how many baseball analysts had them picked to win their division. With a solid pitching staff, the Sox had picked up Adam Dunn, drooling over how many home runs he might hit, and then re-signed Paul Konerko, making people think their offense looked scary. It turned out nothing was farther from the truth, with career worst seasons from Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham. Throw in horrible offense from the 3rd baseman Brent Morel, Juan Pierre and Mark Teahan (who they promptly traded mid-season for reliever Jason Frasor); they had no chance to compete. Konerko can only carry an offense by himself for so long!
Signing Dunn and then re-signing Konerko was one of the strangest moves, especially since they were already over loaded at DH (with Carlos Quentin and Mark Teahan). This forced them to play Carlos Quentin in the outfield fulltime since you were going to give Dunn all the DH at bats. This then diminished the playing time of the two young outfielders you had, Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo, possibly hurting their growth. Since you were paying Rios an insane amount of money ($12.5 mil) and both Dunn and Konerko are signed for $12 million plus, that leaves one outfield spot to rotate De Aza, Viciedo and Teahan (who really was out of position, but has better OF range than peg-leg Quentin). I just can’t stop shaking my head…
During the season you recognize you are out of contention, and you trade away Teahan and the expensive Edwin Jackson (who will be a free agent at the end of the season) to the Toronto Blue Jays. But instead of getting a couple of solid prospects you get a veteran reliever in Jason Frasor and a major league ready 25 year old starter named Zach Stewart. Not actual prospects, meaning you recognize it’s time to rebuild, but you trade for non-impact major league players instead. Isn’t Stewart young you say? Well true, but he is average to awful depending on which stats you decide to look at to evaluate him. His 2011 minor league stats at double-A and triple-A: 17 GS, 5-6 record, 1.42 WHIP, 4.20 ERA. His 2011 major league stats: 11 GS, 2-6 record, 1.60 WHIP, 5.88 ERA.
Just a quick aside about “prospects”… there are two different levels of prospects, those that an organization has projected as part of their future (usually given a rating of, let’s say, in the top 25 or top 10, of their minor leaguers), and then there’s the rest. The ones who may reach the majors but probably as non-impact players. When you trade big time major league ready players you normally expect a top 5 rated prospect or maybe in the neighborhood of a couple of top tens. It is true that minor league players, especially young ones who have not played above single-A level ball, can always improve and surprise. It is such a long way to the majors that anything can happen. But, unless you are receiving true organizationally rated top prospects, not just minor leaguers, you aren’t really rebuilding.
OK, so the 2011 season is over and you have some obviously bloated contracts, where you can’t move them and you hope the player comes back to at least league average. For the 2012 season: Jake Peavy is owed $17 mil (my god), Rios is owed $12.5 mil and Dunn $14 mil. The 2011 team payroll was 5th in the majors coming in just under $130 million. 5th in payroll and a losing record? Obviously some changes needed to be made.
First thing you do is jettison your volatile manager. Fine, that actually makes sense, as it was just time for Ozzie Guillen to move on. While Guillen knows baseball and can get some good results out of certain personalities, he is conversely very awful with a struggling team, often making the situation worse.
Second thing is you decide to let Juan Pierre (age 34, earned $9.8 mil) and Mark Buehrle (age 32, earned $14 mil) leave via free agency. Yes, you offer Buehrle arbitration, but you know he will receive a long term deal from someone else, so you are not worried he will accept. Letting Buehrle go definitely indicates the start of rebuilding, right?
The third thing you do is make a decision on which direction to pursue during the off-season. Are you rebuilding, targeting top prospects from other organizations and riding out some of the crazy salaries you have on the books? (IE. Peavy’s in 1 yr, Rios’ in 2 years and Dunn’s in 3 years) Or do you throw all in for 2012 with the idea that if Dunn, Rios, Peavy and Gordon Beckham all stay healthy and bounce back then you are golden? Well it would seem The White Sox ownership and GM Williams can’t decide. Or refuse to…
The one place you didn’t have to worry about was your closer. In his 2nd season, Sergio Santos emerged as a solid closer. And then in September Santos signed a very team friendly 3 year contract, with 3 additional club option years! Santos is 28 year sold, saved 30 games for them, had a 1.11 WHIP and struck out 92 batters in less than 65 innings pitched. Why move him? With so many other issues to worry about why deal Santos? It just doesn’t make any sense unless you are totally abandoning ship for the next 3 years (a la the Oakland A’s). What did the White Sox get back? A 22 year old single-A level starting pitcher named Nestor Molina. And while his stats were very nice, he is not rated very highly mostly because he has no breaking pitches (he has two pitches, a fastball and a splitter). Most scouts think he will convert to a relief pitcher because of this. I mark this move as a spasm of indecision. It smacks of making a move just for the sake of making a move.
Next, you trade Carlos Quentin to the San Diego Padres for two prospects, Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. My very first thought when I heard about this was, “Oh no! Who will the Sox get to play DL for them now?” My second thought was, “Poor Carlos Quentin, he was just sent to the minors.” I can understand this trade if it’s just a straight salary dump, and you are really in rebuilding mode. With his flagging outfield defense and lack of DH time available, moving Quentin for a good prospect makes sense. But neither of the two minor league pitchers the White Sox received in return is considered a top prospect. Both have been very disappointing so far in their minor league careers. Especially Castro, who had over a 10 ERA in his brief triple-A duty last year. Ouch! Wouldn’t you think you could get at least acquire one top 25 level prospect for Quentin?
Then, after letting their most consistent starter (11th straight season of 200 innings, 30 starts and double digit wins), 32 year old Mark Buehrle, leave via free agency, they gave their inconsistent 26 year old John Danks a 5 year extension for $65 mil. They didn’t even make a token offer to Buehrle! They claimed he was out of their price range. Funny, they paid him $14 mil for 2011 and he wasn’t actually asking for a higher salary, but rather Buehrle was seeking a 5 year contract. Buehrle is not a fireballer but instead a finesse pitcher. So was a 4 or 5 year deal really out of the question for him? Also, if you weren't planning to re-sign him or even offer him a contract, why didn’t you trade him during the season (like Edwin Jackson) for a prospect or two? I just can’t help but shake my head.
The White Sox had been shopping Danks actively this off-season, actually for the second straight off-season, when they did a complete 180-degree turn and unexpectedly signed him to a 5 year extension. At what averages to be $13 million a season, or basically an ace level contract. How do you claim you can’t afford to pay your consistently solid pitcher Buehrle, who averages over 200 innings a season, led your team in innings pitched, quality starts, wins and ERA last year, but then turn around to pay Danks instead? Compared to Buehrle, Danks had 5 fewer wins, 6 fewer quality starts, threw 35 innings less, had a WHIP .04 points higher and an ERA .78 runs higher. Oh, and by the way Chi-Sox, the Miami Marlins paid Buehrle the same exact salary you just paid Danks, so I am guessing you could afford to have paid Buehrle! Doesn’t this totally contradict your two trades?
Finally, you trade Jason Frasor back to the Blue Jays for two low-level minor leaguers pitchers, 20 year old Miles Jaye and 22 year old Daniel Webb. Both who aren’t projected beyond average relief pitchers, even at their young ages.
These moves totally smell like the White Sox changing their minds about which direction to go. Pure indecision at it’s best. And instead of collecting maybe a couple of top prospects for all this work they have a bunch of youngish, not highly rated, minor league pitchers. Maybe GM Williams is using the quantity over quality approach, where shear numbers will eventually produce one top-notch pitcher for them.
The positives for the coming 2012 season after these moves? The White Sox have three young positional players who should see more playing time now. Their 25 year old catcher Tyler Flowers, 27 year old OF Alejandro De Aza and 22 year old OF Dayan Viciedo. All 3 showed some exciting potential last year. Also, the outfield defense will improve by bounds and leaps. (Get it? Yea, bad puns I know)
The negatives for the coming 2012 season after these moves? Now you have to audition for a closer yet again, along with no depth in the bullpen. You have no top of the rotation ace, yet you are paying Danks to be that guy. Your restocked minor leagues are not really restocked with any true potential. You are relying on 4 core players to rebound and remain healthy who don’t have great track records.
The projected salary, right now, for this team as it is currently configured would be for around $105 million. That’s approximately a $25 mil reduction from last year. I boldly predict that the White Sox will spend (or rather overspend) some of that on a big splash move. Can I interest you in a Cuban outfielder or maybe another DH/1B in Prince Fielder? Anyone? Bueller?
I just can’t stop shaking my head. Maybe the manager wasn’t the only one that needs to move on.
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