What Are The San Diego Padres Doing?

Every year there are always a couple of teams that seem to be confused. As if they aren’t sure which direction they are going in… are they rebuilding or competing? Or are they trying to balance on the razor’s edge and do both? Not many teams are able to accomplish rebuilding their team, cutting their payroll and still be competitive enough to merit their fan base getting excited.

For most Organizations in baseball, things usually go through a cycle. Maybe 3 to 5 years of losing or being mediocre. Then a ramping up occurs (adding key free agents or trades coupled with homegrown talent) with somewhere around 2 to 4 very competitive years. This cycle, of course, doesn’t apply to all organizations equally. Some organizations are just so badly run they never “ramp up” and compete. Other “large” markets have such a huge financial edge, that (if run well) they never experience the down cycle. The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees (for examples) haven’t truly gone through a rebuilding process in a couple of decades (or at least not in the same sense as other organizations). On the other end of the spectrum, I can’t remember the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning season.

Admittedly, with the addition of a second wild-card spot there is always a chance a team could be trying to cut payroll, rebuild, get younger and still accidentally compete to make the post-season. But this off-season I have watched the San Diego Padres and the Chicago White Sox (my next article) make multiple moves, which are very confusing to me. Every other move they make seems to contradict the previous one. I am not convinced that the general managers are even sure which direction they are trying to go in.

Let’s look at the San Diego Padres first…

Last year the Pads were last in their division with a 71 win season. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the division, look to be a notch stronger with the addition of starter Trevor Cahill. The Padres offense was next to non-existing last year. Out of 30 major league teams, they were 28^th in Runs and team OBP, 29^th in batting average and slugging percentage. Their pitching staff, on the other hand, helped by their humongous Petco ballpark, had a solid season: 3^rd in ERA, 7^th in Avg against, 10^th in WHIP and quality starts.

So, what would you immediately do once the season ends? You allow your bullpen stability to take a big hit by letting your closer leave via free agency. Then, you trade your best starting pitcher, of course. Mat Latos, over his two seasons, was easily their best starting pitcher. He led the team last year in K’s, WHIP and ERA. He also was 9^th in the NL with a .233 Avg against last year. Oh, did I mention he is only 24 years old and is not earning that much? Don’t get me wrong, as an isolated trade; I can objectively say the Padres got a very nice package for Latos. Maybe in 5 years we will even say they got the better end of it. But you have the rights to Latos for another 4 years without even having to sign him to a long-term, expensive contract! I just shake my head. At least with their now former closer, Heath Bell, you can understandably say maybe they didn’t want to be committed to him when he turned 37 or 38 years old.

OK, so now you’ve lost your closer and traded away your best starting pitcher, both who were the anchors of your team’s strongpoint, but you get some nice prospects back. So now you are going to run the young players out on the field to see what they can do, right? Right?

No (part 1), now you decide instead to trade for new closer, Huston Street, from the Colorado Rockies. What does it take to get him? Your 2007 first round pick, a pitcher by the name of Nick Schmidt, and cash! (Cash?!? Really?) The 26 year old Schmidt has had his progress slowed by Tommy john surgery in 2008, but he still was a top 10 prospect in the Padres system at that time. And now, you are on the hook to Street, someone who is very injury prone, for $7 million in 2012 and possibly $9 mil in 2013. When you aren’t competing, it always makes sense to overpay for an injury prone closer. Wouldn’t it have been smarter to just pay your ace young starter instead?

No (part 2), now you trade two prospects for Carlos Quentin. Carlos is going into his 7^th season and final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2012 season (estimated $8 million minimum). Why would the Padres trade for him as a one-year rental? Are they going to compete this year? Not a chance, not after trading away Latos. Now you have just traded for a very injury prone designated hitter (he has never played more than 131 games), who is going to be forced to play left field for you. Quentin was never known for his defense, but after years of injuries he now plays defense like… well… a designated hitter. Trust me, nothing good will come of this in the cavernous outfield of Petco Park!

There is a reason why the Padres were dead last in homeruns last year. They have tried this experiment already. To bring in a thumper who immediately flamed out in Petco Park, by the name of Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick was a power-hitting outfielder from the St Louis Cardinals who either homered, struck out or hit a fly ball. He has hit as many as 37 homeruns in a season, not too shabby! In Ludwick’s 4 seasons with St Louis he slugged over .500, in his parts of 2 seasons with the Padres? He didn’t even come close to slugging .400, that’s how much Petco can play with a slugger’s mind.

So it looks as if the Pads are repeating that failed experiment a second time. Carlos Quentin’s last 4 seasons with the white Sox he also slugged over .500 just like Ludwick did. Quentin was also 10^th in the majors last year, for hitting balls into the air. To say he is a fly ball pull hitter that strikes out a lot is an understatement. The last 3 seasons his strikeout rate has increased. The last 3 seasons his homerun rate has gone down. Next year I boldly predict both of those trends to continue… oh, before he continues with his third trend, getting hurt.

Simply put, until the Padres move their outfield walls in, they should only be trading for pitching and players with speed and who know how to play defense. Quentin is none of those things! It’s called building your team around your ballpark. In some places they call it home field advantage.

With Quentin’s only spot on the field being in left, you have now taken away a possible option to get both of your young slugging first baseman at bats. In the Mat Latos trade you received back 24 year old Yonder Alonso. You also have Anthony Rizzo, a 22 year old slugger, to play first base. Both have nothing to prove in the minors and it’s time to see what these youngsters can do, but you can’t play both of them at first! The Reds used Alonso in left field 16 games last year, doing just that same thing, since they have Joey Votto manning first. And if you think either Alonso or Rizzo would look silly out of position, just watch about a month of Quentin hobbling after fly balls and get back to me.

And before you tell me they can just trade him during the season, exactly how are his struggling stats at Petco going to enhance Quentin's value? And if you say they can sign him to a long-term contract (he is from the San Diego area), why would you want an expensive poor defensive outfielder, especially if you aren’t competing? Let’s be optimistic and say everything breaks right and the Padres are poised to win over 90 games in 3 years (2014). Are you really going to watch Quentin shamble around left field all that time? Will his walks and occasional homer make up for his .250 average, high strikeout total and awful defense?

OK, maybe I am ranting a bit, but really, no fan base deserves such ridiculous moves. Not when there have been so many better options for them. Why didn’t the Padres step up with the two prospects for closer Sergio Santos? Or closer Mark Melancon? Why didn’t they sign outfielder Jason Kubel, who signed for $7.5 mil per season. Or David DeJesus, who signed for $5 mil per. Or even Grady Sizemore at $5 mil per?! Yes, he is the poster boy for injuries, but even on one leg he plays better defense than DH Quentin ever could.

OK, enough ranting, let’s switch gears… here is my projected starting rotation and lineup for the 2012 team as things currently stand (and if I was in charge!):

Padres Projected 2012 Rotation:

Tim Stauffer (R) age 29

Clayton Richard (L) age 28

Cory Luebke (L) age 26

Dustin Moseley (R) age 30

Edison Volquez (R) age 28

Closer = Huston Street (R) age 28

Setup man = Luke Gregerson (R) age 27

Padres Projected 2012 Lineup:

Will Venable RF

Cameron Maybin CF

Chase Headley 3B

Carlos Quentin LF

Yonder Alonso 1B

Nick Hundley C

Orlando Hudson 2B

Jason Bartlett SS

Pitcher

Other than first base, with the two monster prospects, I don’t think any of the other traded for prospects will make the team out of spring training (as things stand now). Even though I think Volquez has a higher ceiling than several of the other pitchers, he has to prove it to me. His walks and control issues need to be ironed out before I would give him more responsibility. I would like to see this team in 3 years time though, to see which of these traded for prospects steps up to help them.

But, as you can see, it is probably going to be a long season for the Padres. No, longer than that. Just be thankful you root for another team (unless it’s the A’s, then even Padre fans feel bad for you).

This is a very, VERY early NL West prediction, but if nothing changes here is my 2 cents on the final standings:

LA Dodgers – 91 wins

Arizona Diamondbacks – 90 wins

San Francisco Giants – 86 wins

Colorado Rockies – 72 wins

San Diego Padres – 63 wins

I hope I am wrong, but at least I didn’t predict the Padres to lose 100 games.